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fiby41 wrote: ↑

Wed Mar 25, 2020 2:10 pm

Russia and India both had about 600 cases when a 7 and 21 day lockdown was declared respectively. https://www.covid19india.org/

Russia? Please. See "Chernobyl". I'd sooner trust Bernie Madoff's numbers. Funny how they have had a low amount of COVID-19 cases but a significant spike in pneumonia cases.

Taleb on UK COVID-19 strategy:

https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfr ... are_btn_tw

thrifty++ wrote: ↑

Wed Mar 25, 2020 12:57 pm

I feel like NZ is doing well but I think that's our remote isolation and geographic advantage making it easier.

I was wondering if NZs isolation is something of a double edged sword as whilst it can probably control inflows better, is it not highly dependent on imported medicine and other essentials ? Does it have sufficient manufacturing capability to become self sufficient in things like ventilators if the supply lines are chocked off ?

jacob wrote: ↑

Wed Mar 25, 2020 12:34 pm

That's a negatory so far. However, tests are still ongoing.

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles ... e-in-study

This study seems almost meaningless since the sample size is effectively one:

"Of the 15 patients given the malaria drug, 13 tested negative for the coronavirus after a week of treatment. Of the 15 patients who didn’t get hydroxychloroquine, 14 tested negative for the virus."

If we do nothing we expect all but one person to recover anyway so we are only looking at the effect on that one marginal patient. There are all sorts of reasons one individual might not recover, regardless of what care they received.

HCQ might not work, and this shifted my prior in that direction, but not by very much.

smart people plz share recpies for diy ventilators and reusable masks

Big news from Canadian Covid 19 Relief.

New $75 Billion CAD bill passed (that's like almost twenty bucks american), the biggest addition is:

To support workers and help businesses keep their employees, the government has proposed legislation to establish the Canada Emergency Response Benefit (CERB). This taxable benefit would provide $2,000 a month for up to four months for workers who lose their income as a result of the COVID-19 pandemic. The CERB would be a simpler and more accessible combination of the previously announced Emergency Care Benefit and Emergency Support Benefit.

The CERB would cover Canadians who have lost their job, are sick, quarantined, or taking care of someone who is sick with COVID-19, as well as working parents who must stay home without pay to care for children who are sick or at home because of school and daycare closures. The CERB would apply to wage earners, as well as contract workers and self-employed individuals who would not otherwise be eligible for Employment Insurance (EI).

Additionally, workers who are still employed, but are not receiving income because of disruptions to their work situation due to COVID-19, would also qualify for the CERB. This would help businesses keep their employees as they navigate these difficult times, while ensuring they preserve the ability to quickly resume operations as soon as it becomes possible.

So it's for people who cannot get EI (i.e. small business owners, contractors, etc.)

https://www.canada.ca/en/department-fin ... esses.html

chenda wrote: ↑

Wed Mar 25, 2020 2:28 pm

I was wondering if NZs isolation is something of a double edged sword as whilst it can probably control inflows better, is it not highly dependent on imported medicine and other essentials ? Does it have sufficient manufacturing capability to become self sufficient in things like ventilators if the supply lines are chocked off ?

Im not completely sure to be honest. We are not a major manufacturing country. A lot of manufacturing is related to food type products. The govt seems quite confident about capacity to manage it, and I think they made a statement like being able to triple medical capacity. Could be bluff and bluster but current NZ govt doesn't tend to do that, unlike trump, rather they are managing expectations saying things like we should expect the numbers to go into the thousands before coming back down.

I did something wrong in my quoting the past couple days, so starting fresh today and will try to correct the prior days. OHA has switched the age grouping to decades. [edit: prior days are corrected]

57 new cases today, about double the prior largest day, mostly in Washington, Multnomah, Clackamas, & Linn counties. Clatsop County announced a second case, but too late to show up in these numbers. Numbers on the web site took a long time to be posted today.

Oregon Health Authority as of 9a Wed, Mar 25
- 266 Positives
- 5476 Negatives
- 10 Deaths

Cases by County
- 6 Benton (Corvallis) - Note two are actually in Washington state, though they're residents of Benton County.
- 21 Clackamas (Oregon City)
- 1 Clatsop (Astoria)
- 10 Deschutes (Bend)
- 3 Douglas (Roseburg)
- 1 Grant (Canyon City)
- 1 Hood River (Hood River)
- 4 Jackson (Medford)
- 2 Josephine (Grants Pass)
- 1 Klamath (Klamath Falls)
- 5 Lane (Eugene)
- 1 Lincoln (Newport)
- 25 Linn (Albany)
- 43 Marion (Salem)
- 33 Multnomah (Portland)
- 3 Polk (Dallas)
- 2 Umatilla (Pendleton)
- 1 Union (La Grande)
- 96 Washington (Hillsboro)
- 7 Yamhill (McMinnville)

Cases by Age Group
- 5 19 or younger
- 15 20-29
- 32 30-39
- 55 40-49
- 42 50-59
- 57 60- 69
- 34 70-79
- 25 80 and over
- 1 Not available

Hospitalized
- 75 Yes
- 135 No
- 56 Not provided

Sex
- 142 Male
- 123 Male
- 1 Not available

Stahlmann wrote: ↑

Wed Mar 25, 2020 2:59 pm

smart people plz share recpies for diy ventilators and reusable masks

There is a lot of info out there about handmade cloth masks. Apparently they are better than nothing. It sounds like a DIY ventilator is not realistic though.

Just heard a snapshot sentence from an interview with a
Dr.Garret A.Fitzgerald,Perelman school of medicine, University of Pennsylvania.

He said they will be screening 5,000 people for Coronovirus antibodies next week.

Can't find any other information on the internet on this...has anyone any links/knowledge on this?

NYC ICU capacity expected to be exceeded this Friday (3/27)

https://www.nytimes.com/2020/03/25/nyre ... itals.html

Jason wrote: ↑

Wed Mar 25, 2020 2:15 pm

Russia? Please. See "Chernobyl". I'd sooner trust Bernie Madoff's numbers.

It's not just Russia. I suspect the whole of Middle-Eastern and Eastern Europe has no idea what is happening within their borders. Some anecdotes from Poland (officially only c. 1k cases):

- Since the country is totally not prepared hospitals ordered some masks from abroad but these were stopped at the border and confiscated by the army

- Old folks who die at home from pneumonia/breathing difficulties are not tested (and neither are their families) and the official cause is reported as 'suffocation'; similarly many who end up in the hospital are not tested; some people are not isolated even in hospitals

- Disinformation & contradictory advice at all levels; someone called with symptoms after returning from the high-risk country and was asked which border crossing they used & was then told they need to go back and come through a different crossing so they can be tested there

- One government minister was already diagnosed with COVID-19 but the cabinet continued to meet in person; now 15 government ministers are being quarantined

- Presidential elections are still going ahead because while it's still early stages of epidemic in Poland, the governing party hopes to win the election before the situation deteriorates ('stay at home but go to vote')

- Religious gatherings were never canceled and initially encouraged to 'pray for the sick' (there are hundreds/thousands on each mass in Poland); now there's a limit of how many people can participate

- TV reports that the Polish government is receiving regular calls from other European governments praising their actions and asking for advice on how to fight the virus

Meanwhile I have people I work with bitching about their beach being closed and their renters having to leave their rental properties. Then others looking for loopholes in the stay at home policies in our city so they can go to the office. I just don't get it.

Maybe it is just because I am not over 60, but I am at high risk due to an underlying lung condition but who knows. I don't want to die because one of these idiots can't stand to work from home or misses out on some rental income.

1taskaday wrote: ↑

Wed Mar 25, 2020 5:41 pm

Just heard a snapshot sentence from an interview with a
Dr.Garret A.Fitzgerald,Perelman school of medicine, University of Pennsylvania.

He said they will be screening 5,000 people for Coronovirus antibodies next week.

Can't find any other information on the internet on this...has anyone any links/knowledge on this?

It was discussed in front of the UK Parliament with availability for next week as a home test kit. Sorry, I didn't save a link. Only useful for those who think they've recovered from COVID-19.

Washington State Department of Health:

Due to ongoing difficulties, the numbers for March 25 may be delayed.

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/ ... ithin-days

Thanks found it in The Guardian.

I think this could be the path back to normality for a lot of people.

1taskaday wrote: ↑

Wed Mar 25, 2020 6:25 pm

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/ ... ithin-days

Thanks found it in The Guardian.

I think this could be the path back to normality for a lot of people.

Awesome! That's good to hear. An inexpensive and fast at-home antibody test will be a major tool in moving past the fear stage and getting back to some sense of normalcy.

Hey that test looks like a game changer.

Does anyone know if this kind of test can distinguish between having antibodies and being infected and contagious?

Basically what does a positive mean?

Stahlmann wrote: ↑

Wed Mar 25, 2020 2:59 pm

smart people plz share recpies for diy ventilators and reusable masks

MIT has a project to ramp up ventilator capacity using a BVM (bag valve mask) and some simple tech.

https://e-vent.mit.edu/



You can still get a BVMs online. The Red Cross Store still has them in stock for $14.99. These are non-invasive as they use the mask to create a seal around the face and pump air into the lungs. They can be attached to an intubation tube to do the job of a typical ventilator as you can see in the photo, but you would still need someone to pump it. I've pumped one in training for several minutes on a dummy and I can say for sure it is not easy. It would not be a solution for someone needing ventilation for many days without the mechanical piece above.

NZ now has 283 confirmed or probable cases.

27 recoveries.

No one has been in the intense or critical stage yet.

12,683 tests have been done in total. 1,400 test per day have been getting done in the last week which is why numbers are increasing rapidly.

https://www.nzherald.co.nz/nz/news/arti ... d=12320032