COVID-19

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George the original one
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Re: COVID-19

Post by George the original one »

Ego wrote:
Fri Mar 20, 2020 1:58 pm
@black_son_of_gray, Understood, but we've had data from China (for a month now?) which has been confirmed from Italy as to who is most at risk. Moving forward would it be possible to do a strict quarantine on those most at risk coupled with testing for all so that the economy can at least partially function?
Some countries are, I believe, taking this approach.

The problems I see are that testing for all is still unavailable in the USA and you're taking an overall hospitalization rate of 1-in-5 and trading it for, at best, 1-in-7.

George the original one
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Re: COVID-19

Post by George the original one »

George the original one wrote:
Thu Mar 19, 2020 2:56 pm
Oregon Health Authority as of 8a Thu, Mar 19
- 88 Positives
- 1329 Negatives
- 3 Deaths
- 437 Pending

Cases by County
- 2 Benton (Corvallis) - Note two are actually in Washington state, though they're residents of Benton County.
- 6 Clackamas (Oregon City)
- 6 Deschutes (Bend)
- 1 Douglas (Roseburg)
- 2 Jackson (Medford)
- 1 Klamath (Klamath Falls)
- 2 Lane (Eugene)
- 18 Linn (Albany)
- 13 Marion (Salem)
- 7 Multnomah (Portland)
- 1 Polk (Dallas)
- 2 Umatilla (Pendleton)
- 25 Washington (Hillsboro)
- 2 Yamhill (McMinnville)

Cases by Age Group
- 4 17 or younger
- 4 18-24
- 3 25-34
- 23 35-54
- 54 55+
26 new cases, testing still ramping up. Added Grant & Union counties. In the past week, Oregon has gone from 30 cases to 124.

Oregon Health Authority as of 8a Fri, Mar 20
- 124 Positives
- 2003 Negatives
- 3 Deaths
- 433 Pending

Cases by County
- 2 Benton (Corvallis) - Note two are actually in Washington state, though they're residents of Benton County.
- 10 Clackamas (Oregon City)
- 8 Deschutes (Bend)
- 1 Douglas (Roseburg)
- 1 Grant (Canyon City)
- 2 Jackson (Medford)
- 1 Klamath (Klamath Falls)
- 2 Lane (Eugene)
- 19 Linn (Albany)
- 17 Marion (Salem)
- 12 Multnomah (Portland)
- 1 Polk (Dallas)
- 2 Umatilla (Pendleton)
- 1 Union (La Grande)
- 31 Washington (Hillsboro)
- 4 Yamhill (McMinnville)

Cases by Age Group
- 4 17 or younger
- 4 18-24
- 6 25-34
- 34 35-54
- 66 55+

black_son_of_gray
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Re: COVID-19

Post by black_son_of_gray »

Ego wrote:
Fri Mar 20, 2020 1:58 pm
Moving forward would it be possible to do a strict quarantine on those most at risk coupled with testing for all so that the economy can at least partially function?
I'm not sure I have an answer, but here are some (hopefully) related thoughts. The main dilemma is (minimizing health impacts) vs. (minimizing economic impacts). We might imagine two extreme scenarios where governments go all-in on one or the other and get ideal outcomes for that strategy. I'll use a simplistic notation of "negative impact" in this form, with each ranging from 0 (no impact) to 1 (maximum negative impact): [Health=(0 to 1),Economy=(0 to 1)].

For (minimizing health impacts), we would see a complete and total lockdown of the population such that the curve is sufficiently flattened and no health care system is overwhelmed. The Medium article posted a few days back that did some math on this suggests that this would require the curve to be stretched out many years, because the capacity of the health care system is comparatively very low relative to the demands resulting from COVID-19. This would probably be the most disruptive scenario I can think of for economic impact* because it is so drawn out that any debts at all (and our world is awash in debt) would default or have to be nationalized. This scenario is [0,1].

*Unless it was caught really early when testing, isolation, and contact tracing could keep up. This is no longer possible for most places, certainly not in the US.

For (minimizing economic impacts), we would see a policy that allows COVID-19 to "burn through" the population. Hell, maybe even inoculate the population so that the sickness isn't drawn out in time. One month haitus, then everything turns back on at full speed, with society severely traumatized and a good deal of people dead. This scenario is [1,0].

Now let's consider what we might call "mixed" scenarios, that try to balance health and economic concerns. Every country on earth will follow a mixed scenario because none of the two scenarios described above are possible or palatable at this point. What is completely unknown is what possible solutions really look like between [0,1] and [1,0]. One might assume that the tradeoffs are linear, meaning that no matter what balance is struck, the sum is 1... for example [0.3,0.7] or [0.5,0.5]. However you want to calculate things, I doubt that is true. Rather, ideally, we can figure out a set of policies that sum < 1, e.g. [0.2,0.6] or something like that. What I am particularly worried about is a set of policies that is > 1. Something like an unholy compromise where the economy is damaged enough to blow itself up, but the health care system is also still overwhelmed for a long time.

The problem with health care capacity is that it is very low relative to the problem, such that even if the curve was flattened a lot but not enough (and at great expense to the economy), the number of excessive deaths would be essentially the same* assuming the same area under the curve. There are a lot of assumptions in this thinking, and time can bring with it several solutions (like a vaccine, ramped up health care capacity), but this is my nightmare. This is [0.8,0.8].

*If health care capacity = 1, and no flattening = 100 demand, then 100-1= 99 out of every 100 are impacted. But with flattening = 30 demand, then still 30-1=29 out of 30 still impacted! And the economy is crushed much longer.

George the original one
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Re: COVID-19

Post by George the original one »

George the original one wrote:
Thu Mar 19, 2020 5:35 pm
State of Washington published count as of 3:00p Thu, 19 Mar
- 1376 Positives
- 15918 Negatives
- 74 deaths

Cases by County (County seats)
- 1 Benton (Prosser)
- 2 Chelan (Wenatchee)
- 1 Clallam (Port Angeles)
- 4 Clark (Vancouver)
- 1 Columbia (Dayton)
- 2 Franklin (Pasco)
- 8 Grant (Ephrata)
- 1 Grays Harbor (Montesano)
- 17 Island (Coupeville)
- 4 Jefferson (Port Townsend)
- 693 King (Seattle)
- 12 Kitsap (Port Orchard)
- 4 Kittitas (Ellensburg)
- 2 Klickatat (Goldendale)
- 1 Lewis (Chehalis)
- 1 Lincoln (Davenport)
- 1 Mason (Shelton)
- 75 Pierce (Tacoma)
- 18 Skagit (Mount Vernon)
- 348 Snohomish (Everett)
- 9 Spokane (Spokane)
- 6 Thurston (Olympia)
- 7 Whatcom (Bellingham)
- 7 Yakima (Yakima)
- 151 Unassigned (labs are having trouble keeping up and Dept of Health is working to determine the proper county)

Cases by Age
- 2% 0-19
- 8% 0-29
- 13% 30-39
- 14% 40-49
- 16% 50-59
- 16% 60-69
- 15% 70-79
- 16% 80+

Cases by Sex at Birth
- 51% Female
- 46% Male
- 3% Unknown
148 new cases. Added Cowlitz County.

State of Washington published count as of 3:00p Thu, 19 Mar
- 1524 Positives
- 21719 Negatives
- 83 deaths

Cases by County (County seats)
- 2 Benton (Prosser)
- 2 Chelan (Wenatchee)
- 1 Clallam (Port Angeles)
- 6 Clark (Vancouver)
- 1 Columbia (Dayton)
- 1 Cowlitz (Kelso)
- 2 Franklin (Pasco)
- 8 Grant (Ephrata)
- 1 Grays Harbor (Montesano)
- 19 Island (Coupeville)
- 4 Jefferson (Port Townsend)
- 793 King (Seattle)
- 12 Kitsap (Port Orchard)
- 4 Kittitas (Ellensburg)
- 2 Klickatat (Goldendale)
- 1 Lewis (Chehalis)
- 1 Lincoln (Davenport)
- 1 Mason (Shelton)
- 83 Pierce (Tacoma)
- 25 Skagit (Mount Vernon)
- 385 Snohomish (Everett)
- 11 Spokane (Spokane)
- 6 Thurston (Olympia)
- 10 Whatcom (Bellingham)
- 10 Yakima (Yakima)
- 133 Unassigned (labs are having trouble keeping up and Dept of Health is working to determine the proper county)

Cases by Age
- 2% 0-19
- 8% 0-29
- 13% 30-39
- 13% 40-49
- 16% 50-59
- 16% 60-69
- 16% 70-79
- 16% 80+

Cases by Sex at Birth
- 51% Female
- 46% Male
- 3% Unknown

EdithKeeler
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Re: COVID-19

Post by EdithKeeler »

I ventured out this afternoon—took my brother’s dog back home—didn’t even get out of the car. My first time out into the world since Monday.

Frankly, I was picturing empty streets and parking lots, but it looked pretty much like business as usual to me. I was a little surprised, actually.

It looks, too, like my neighbor is having her every-other-weekend house party where family comes in on Friday and stays thru Sunday. Not a lot of social distancing there.

All is well here, but I still don’t have any onions, dammit.

Alphaville
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Re: COVID-19

Post by Alphaville »

EdithKeeler wrote:
Fri Mar 20, 2020 6:21 pm
All is well here, but I still don’t have any onions, dammit.
get this while you still can:

https://www.costco.com/kirkland-signatu ... 34981.html

works in soups, beans, stews, etc.

also blends well with cream cheese, sour cream, etc

-x

eta: apologies if you read pre-edit. im slightly fatigued. :oops:

steveo73
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Re: COVID-19

Post by steveo73 »

Jean wrote:
Fri Mar 20, 2020 12:58 pm
Were are you going to find those tests?
Testing isn't the solution because there won't be enough test kits. I personally want everyone to go into lockdown for a month apart from essential services across the world. If we can then starve this virus out it'd be fantastic.

I think that there is no chance of that happening and I think the best we will get is some form of social distancing and management of positive test cases that will flatten the curve. The amount of people who practice social-distancing and the ability of the various health systems within each country will determine the impact within various countries.

Socially responsible people + good health systems probably equals a flu like virus.
Socially irresponsible people + poor health systems probably equals catastrophe.

I think no matter the situation we are going to have an economic disaster however I assume most people on here will be okay dependent on their progress towards FI.

George the original one
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Re: COVID-19

Post by George the original one »

Ugh. At 126 cases, it may not sound like many, but Las Vegas had only 3 cases 8 days ago. Is it too much to suggest this is what happens without social distancing?

For comparison, Oregon has 114 cases today and 8 days ago had 30.

For the entire state of Nevada, the story is even worse:
Sisolak said the number of positive cases in our state has skyrocketed, increasing by 70% in just three days. He noted the numbers are not slowing down, and we have not yet reached our apex.

The governor said due to the fact Nevada does not have enough test kits, we don’t know the full scope of the virus.

Sisolak revealed the Nevada Division of Behavioral and Public Health received a notice that all of our state’s requests for testing kits are on an indefinite backlog.
https://www.8newsnow.com/news/local-new ... se-to-109/
The 109 count is yesterday's state-wide, so I can imagine the governor's shock now that today's figure is known.

Edit: After reading the whole article linked above, there's even worse news because it appears Nevada made zero preparations!
Sisolak says we have 5,000 acute care beds in Nevada, fewer than 700 are intensive care unit beds. More than 80% of those beds are occupied right now, with a mix of COVID-19 and other patients. That leaves only 20% remaining.

George the original one
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Re: COVID-19

Post by George the original one »

Oregon is going into a lockdown, but don't call it a lockdown. Non-essential businesses will be ordered closed on Monday.
***
The other Oregon news, hospitalizations of COVID-19 cases will be reported once again.
“Hospitalizations don’t lie,” Peter Graven, Oregon Health and Science University’s lead data scientist, said in a legislative hearing. “Whether or not you’ve been tested, if you get sick enough, you’re going to show up at the hospital. The number we want to watch is our hospitalization rate.”

After questions from numerous media outlets, the Oregon Health Authority said late Friday that it would resume posting hospitalizations on Saturday.
[...]
By Friday, Modie said Oregon would start posting the hospitalization numbers again the next day. He said the authority was aware of 40 people being hospitalized among the 115 coronavirus cases identified in Oregon.
https://www.oregonlive.com/coronavirus/ ... ng-it.html

Seppia
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Re: COVID-19

Post by Seppia »

theanimal wrote:
Thu Mar 19, 2020 2:46 pm
@Seppia- Can you comment on the quality of Italy's healthcare system? The OECD rating is 9.9/10 for the Lombardy region and other wealthy areas of the country are reported to be high quality as well.
Sorry, only now catching up on stuff.

Italy really is a very different country north/south.
The north is an advanced first world nation, while much of the south is closer 2nd world.
The healthcare system in Lombardy is world class, full stop.
I say this out of facts (ie it has one of the lowest -if not THE lowest- child and mother mortality at delivery in the world) and anecdotal evidence.
Having been treated across the globe, the only system that I’ve seen that kind of compares is the French system.
If you look at WHO rankings, italy is number 2 worldwide after France, and again remember the effectiveness is hampered by a subpar system in the south.
Maybe the the best hospitals in the USA are better than any hospital in Italy, but if you look at the averages it’s a different story.

My dad believes the high mortality we are experiencing is due to a mix of

- we are one of the oldest countries in the world in terms of age brackets.
- the hospitals of Bergamo and Brescia (the two hardest hit cities nowadays) are severely overwhelmed.
In practical terms this means available respirators go to younger people and the old infected are basically left to die
- up until a short while ago, we would only test people with bad symptoms: the real denominator is likely much bigger

All the above makes me very worried for the USA.

Jean
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Re: COVID-19

Post by Jean »

France's Chloroquine's stocks have been plundered.... Litterally

sky
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Re: COVID-19

Post by sky »

US Government COVID-19 Response Plan
March 13, 2020

Large PDF file

https://int.nyt.com/data/documenthelper ... pdf#page=1

EdithKeeler
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Re: COVID-19

Post by EdithKeeler »

Took my dogs to the park this morning. At 6:30 AM, we park goers were few and observed social distancing.

Interesting, though, when I passed Wal-mart and saw a ton of cars in the parking lot, and people lined up to get in. Some people were tightly packed together, chatting away like they were waiting in line for tickets to the next Dtar Wars movie; others were clearly very carefully keeping well away from everyone else.

It’s just interesting to me that some people are paying absolutely no attention to the warnings and recommendations, and others (me!) just want to completely hole up alone in the house until this passes. Of course I’d like to believe that the assholes not paying attention will be culled out, but of course life is never that fair.

I broke down and ordered dry onions and fresh onions today. I can’t survive the apocalypse with no onions. But I’m definitely getting some onions sets to plant.

George the original one
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Re: COVID-19

Post by George the original one »

Seppia wrote:
Sat Mar 21, 2020 3:48 am
My dad believes the high mortality we are experiencing is due to a mix of
[...]
I'm surprised he didn't mention a certain Lombardy leader who downplayed COVID-19 as "just the flu", much like Trump did here. Plus a quarantine that came, was removed, and then reinstated.

ether
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Re: COVID-19

Post by ether »

I'm not a viral geneticist, but I find it pretty interesting that COVID-19 is not even genetically close to the flu but much closer to SARS & the common cold (lower kill rate but much higher transmission

If you look COVID-19 and the flu are not even in the same order!
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Coronavirus
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Orthomyxoviridae

Again not an expert but there has never been a vaccine for the cold since there are tons of strains and it's not super lethal like SARS, so I'm skeptical there will be a cure all vaccine for COVID-19 especially if it keeps mutating as it spreads

https://www.scientificamerican.com/arti ... -cold-yet/

Another chart showing the evolution of COVID-19
https://nextstrain.org/ncov

Also a video of what triage really looks like in Italy, spoiler alert it's not pretty
https://vimeo.com/398266494
Last edited by ether on Sat Mar 21, 2020 11:14 am, edited 1 time in total.

George the original one
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Re: COVID-19

Post by George the original one »

Checking on family, my sister here on the central Oregon coast has done an excellent job preparing. Much better than I expected considering her health & anxieties & dependent on food stamps. It helps that she used to work in healthcare, so knows how to deal with gloves, etc., and took the threat seriously before Trump's public reversal.

My brother in Texas, not so much... because he's an introvert and germophobe, social distancing isn't a problem and he mostly took the threat seriously, but being elderly (he and his wife are over age 75, he's using a cane now and about to start using a walker), they've been relying on eating out for many meals. Food stocking is not something they've been practicing because cooking is a significant chore for them these days. Their mayor ordered restuarants to close except for delivery & take-out only a couple days ago and today have their first case. Only a couple days food stored in their condo and the stores are empty.

Seppia
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Re: COVID-19

Post by Seppia »

George the original one wrote:
Sat Mar 21, 2020 10:46 am
I'm surprised he didn't mention a certain Lombardy leader who downplayed COVID-19 as "just the flu", much like Trump did here.
?
We do have such a genius but Salvini has been out of the government for a while and has no say in the decisions that are taken.
As all western democracies, we have erred on the side of protecting personal freedoms for too long, but I think the government (which I do not like at all, so this isn't out of fandom) acted pretty decisively after that.

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Ego
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Re: COVID-19

Post by Ego »

ether wrote:
Sat Mar 21, 2020 11:01 am
Again not an expert but there has never been a vaccine for the cold since there are tons of strains and it's not super lethal like SARS, so I'm skeptical there will be a cure all vaccine for COVID-19 especially if it keeps mutating as it spreads
Here is an excellent twitter thread by Peter Kolchinsky on the potential to develop a Covid-19 vaccine.
https://twitter.com/PeterKolchinsky/sta ... 7958545410

ether
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Re: COVID-19

Post by ether »

Here is an excellent twitter thread by Peter Kolchinsky on the potential to develop a Covid-19 vaccine.
https://twitter.com/PeterKolchinsky/sta ... 7958545410
This is awesome news that the genome of COVID-19 is pretty simple right now! Also TIL that we have no idea what causes 30% of cold cases!

jacob
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Re: COVID-19

Post by jacob »

Anonymous medical worker from NOLA ... what happens during the ARDS stage, which the respiratory failure that requires ventilation/ICU---about 15-20% of hospitalizations.

https://www.propublica.org/article/a-me ... g-patients

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