Re-Visiting Peak Oil after the Fracking boom

All the different ways of solving the shelter problem. To be static or mobile? Roots, legs, or wheels?
Stahlmann
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Re: Re-Visiting Peak Oil after the Fracking boom

Post by Stahlmann »

did a read of "final energy crisis" 2 days ago. after USA got more interested in giving more freedom to Iran :-DDDD

if we speak about the book.
scary shit.
I hope smart folks doesn't lie.
I don't have time to do my orginal research, because I'm wage slave :-DDDD
Last edited by Stahlmann on Wed Jan 15, 2020 6:09 pm, edited 1 time in total.

7Wannabe5
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Re: Re-Visiting Peak Oil after the Fracking boom

Post by 7Wannabe5 »

JollyScot wrote:Every so often I hear the price of large land areas in US and it depressing on how expensive it is over here compared to you. Then even if you can buy up the land, so many restrictions are put on what you can do with it that its not as useful as it should/could be.
Well, code restrictions exist here too. I am mostly just having fun with numbers (peak oil is real and I have no clue what will happen in the future), but it is interesting to note that the population density (approximate solar acreage units of energy available per capita) of Michigan is currently approximately equal to the population density of England (not U.K. entire) in 1700 and a much higher proportion (53%)of the acreage is currently forested. Due to combination of improved management practices and abandonment of family farms in late 20th century, the range of bears, wolves, eagles and even cougars has expanded since my childhood. The forests were timbered out by the late 19th century to provide lumber for westward pioneer movement across tree-barren plains, but much replanting was done in early 20th century, so regrowth is approaching 100 years. Intelligent management of 2 acre woodlot used to provide heat/cooking fuel for intelligently designed human housing should be adequate for family of 4. As I am sure you are aware, England was timbered out well before 1700 in order to provide charcoal for early industrial usage prior to adoption of more grueling task of mining for coal. It takes a lot of trees to make enough charcoal to forge a sword let alone a full-size SUV. So, highly likely riots etc. here as much as anywhere if SHTF.

JollyScot
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Re: Re-Visiting Peak Oil after the Fracking boom

Post by JollyScot »

Had a quick look at the density of Michigan, it actually about the same as Scotland is now. Maybe I've been listening to the "England is full" news stories too much.

I suspect there will be bickering here when the water shortages hit. South of England has near annual drought. North have about 300 days a year of rain and 30,000 fresh water lochs (lakes).

Could just be that you consider the buying land and thinking about it more than we do. Or our ownership is just a bit too concentrated.

classical_Liberal
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Re: Re-Visiting Peak Oil after the Fracking boom

Post by classical_Liberal »

It seems to me that the US is in a very good position to switch to electric personal vehicles. US advantages include high rate of home ownership with garages attached to the grid allowing for home charging stations, the relatively rich middle class replaces vehicles every five years or so anyway, no real change to production use of petroleum, no real need for infrastructure change, no real need for behavior change. Together I think this makes it the likely future, even at European pump prices, electric vehicles become economically viable. The only reason it hasn't happened yet is because peak oil didn't happen as promised*. Until pump prices go up the only real reason to go electric (due to the downsides, major one being range and lack of charging stations) is because of gov't subsidies or social signaling.

On those lines, if the rate of use for consumer E personal cars in the US went up to 75%. How would that impact the model for future global petroleum use?

(*) Side note, evidently the oil companies were well (ha my second pun of the day) ahead of the peak oil guys on fracking potential. I distinctly remember a multiple hour long discussion with a geologist working in the Western Dakotas circa 2000. He claimed, at the time, the US shale deposits would extend peak oil into the 2030's! That seemed like a very long time to a twenties something c_L. I also distinctly remember thinking half a decade later this friend of a friend was full of shit. Pump prices were nearing $4 a gallon and oil sustaining at over $100 a barrel, up to 150ish at peak. Yet, here we are today.

enigmaT120
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Re: Re-Visiting Peak Oil after the Fracking boom

Post by enigmaT120 »

JollyScot:

You guys just had to breed Irish wolfhounds and Scottish Deerhounds so what do you expect? Though we nearly exterminated them here without dogs. There are more wolves in Italy than there are in Oregon. Makes me crazy.

chenda
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Re: Re-Visiting Peak Oil after the Fracking boom

Post by chenda »

I think they were all shot. The wolves in Britain all gone by the 18th century, the bears gone as early as the 10th. Theres still a few wild cats in Scotland though.

BookLoverL
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Re: Re-Visiting Peak Oil after the Fracking boom

Post by BookLoverL »

Re: population density, according to https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Demograph ... Population, England's population density is 430/km2 whereas Scotland's is 70/km2. So I think England is definitely more crowded than Scotland. The lack of large areas of wilderness in England (especially ones that aren't deforested open moorland) does concern me.

chenda
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Re: Re-Visiting Peak Oil after the Fracking boom

Post by chenda »

BookLoverL wrote:
Sun Jan 19, 2020 7:52 am
The lack of large areas of wilderness in England (especially ones that aren't deforested open moorland) does concern me.
In many ways though it's a good thing, lowland Britain has a superb agricultural climate with lots of cultivated land.

ralfy
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Re: Re-Visiting Peak Oil after the Fracking boom

Post by ralfy »

The issue isn't population density but ecological footprint vs. biocapacity, or at least increasing amounts of energy and material resources needed to attain middle class conveniences vs. what is economically recoverable.

Oil is not cheaper because we've been resorting to fracking.

Peak oil is not a theory for obvious reasons: physical limitations and gravity.

Oil production per capita peaked in 1979.

WFJ
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Re: Re-Visiting Peak Oil after the Fracking boom

Post by WFJ »

Peak oil falls into the same category as Population Bomb, Sharknado, Global Warming and Climate Change, 0 science, but 100% confidence by the "scientists" making the predictions.

Ignoring the statistical issues with the 40+ peak oil declarations made over the past 50 years, all from "scientist" and all 100% wrong, the basic definition of some oil related terms is required, the most important being "Known Recoverable". Known Recoverable is a price dependent measure indicating how much oil can be feasibly removed at current prices. At $10/barrel, the Known Recoverable is quite small and mostly in Saudi, when oil is at $200/barrel, the known recoverable is MASSIVE. Any estimate of Peak Oil ignores this basic fact in the oil markets, takes 5 seconds to find and reveals most Peak Oil zealots aren't interested in providing information, but just "fear porn".

MASSIVE new oil reserves are being found in TEXAS, so imagine how many reserves are located in the rest of the US and the rest of the world and you get an idea of the abundance of this resource. An Petro engineer explained that there are four boxes, known recoverable, known unrecoverable, unknown recoverable and unknown unrecoverable. The two 'unknown' boxes were the largest, meaning we haven't even come close to identifying 1/3 of oil reserves which will currently last a few hundred years.

https://www.usatoday.com/story/money/na ... /94013292/

Saying above, there is a high probability of peak oil, but it won't be because the resource is depleted but the human capital to remove, transport and process oil for plastic cars and plastic wind turbine blades is falling. The entire supply chain of the energy and plastics market is threatened as it requires thousands of hard working healthy intelligent people to perform the tasks in the energy supply chain and this resource will be diminished hundreds of years before fossil fuel will be available to remove from the ground.
https://jpt.spe.org/petroleum-engineeri ... imes-ahead

WFJ
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Re: Re-Visiting Peak Oil after the Fracking boom

Post by WFJ »

classical_Liberal wrote:
Thu Jan 09, 2020 4:25 pm


On those lines, if the rate of use for consumer E personal cars in the US went up to 75%. How would that impact the model for future global petroleum use?

(*) Side note, evidently the oil companies were well (ha my second pun of the day) ahead of the peak oil guys on fracking potential. I distinctly remember a multiple hour long discussion with a geologist working in the Western Dakotas circa 2000. He claimed, at the time, the US shale deposits would extend peak oil into the 2030's! That seemed like a very long time to a twenties something c_L. I also distinctly remember thinking half a decade later this friend of a friend was full of shit. Pump prices were nearing $4 a gallon and oil sustaining at over $100 a barrel, up to 150ish at peak. Yet, here we are today.
EV's will increase demand for fossil fuel. Do you know how EV's are made? Plastics are a higher margin, lower volatility cash flow product compared to gas, big oil makes a killing selling plastics to for the "Green Energy Revolution".

Thousands of these articles, but green energy zealots can't find them.
https://inbound.teamppi.com/blog/oil-to ... ic-is-made
https://dropyourenergybill.com/green-ca ... 0difficult.

So much so that XOM just completed a $10 billion dollar "Green Energy Plastics Plant" in Texas.
https://www.hydrocarbonprocessing.com/n ... exxonmobil

chenda
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Re: Re-Visiting Peak Oil after the Fracking boom

Post by chenda »

Cars are just evil, even if they were made out of hemp and powered by sea water.

zbigi
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Re: Re-Visiting Peak Oil after the Fracking boom

Post by zbigi »

chenda wrote:
Mon Aug 01, 2022 3:55 pm
Cars are just evil, even if they were made out of hemp and powered by sea water.
Why? I personally find that my car is making my life much richer. I wouldn't be able to visit various members of my family or travel to various hiking spots in the evenings without it. I was thinking about selling my car, but replacing it with mediocre public transit we have around here just wouldn't cut it - it's inconvenient enough that most trips I do now just wouldn't happen.

chenda
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Re: Re-Visiting Peak Oil after the Fracking boom

Post by chenda »

zbigi wrote:
Tue Aug 02, 2022 4:33 am
Why? I personally find that my car is making my life much richer. I wouldn't be able to visit various members of my family or travel to various hiking spots in the evenings without it. I was thinking about selling my car, but replacing it with mediocre public transit we have around here just wouldn't cut it - it's inconvenient enough that most trips I do now just wouldn't happen.
I'm exaggerating really, but we need to be slashing car use and car dependency. My concern with EV is that its a form of greenwashing. Even if pollution is reduced we still have congestion, poor public health and road deaths.

zbigi
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Re: Re-Visiting Peak Oil after the Fracking boom

Post by zbigi »

chenda wrote:
Tue Aug 02, 2022 5:04 am
I'm exaggerating really, but we need to be slashing car use and car dependency. My concern with EV is that its a form of greenwashing. Even if pollution is reduced we still have congestion, poor public health and road deaths.
On the other hand, I think it's a bit overlooked that cars can actually make cities more livable (and city living is much greener than alternatives). Thanks to cars, people like me, who are living in a stone and concrete jungle, can quickly travel to nearest green areas and spent their evenings there if the weather is nice. There are of course downsides you mention, but they might be smaller than eco issues generated by living in suburb homes or in the countryside.

chenda
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Re: Re-Visiting Peak Oil after the Fracking boom

Post by chenda »

A 'car-lite' city could work, yes. Definitely better than suburban living. Though it also highlights the need for green space provision in urban areas, or ease of access to.

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Jean
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Re: Re-Visiting Peak Oil after the Fracking boom

Post by Jean »

or you could have city that arent moronically built, and where it's a 20 minute bus ride to cliffs, or gorge, or lake, or wathever is in the area.

zbigi
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Re: Re-Visiting Peak Oil after the Fracking boom

Post by zbigi »

Jean wrote:
Tue Aug 02, 2022 9:46 am
or you could have city that arent moronically built, and where it's a 20 minute bus ride to cliffs, or gorge, or lake, or wathever is in the area.
I have that. Still, it takes 10 minutes to walk to the tram stop, then you have to wait 5-10 minutes for the next tram and then there's still 10 minute walk to the destination. So the total transit time goes up significantly. That time does matter for people with packed schedules, i.e. most pre-retirement adults.

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Jean
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Re: Re-Visiting Peak Oil after the Fracking boom

Post by Jean »

i fart in elevators too.

ducknald_don
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Re: Re-Visiting Peak Oil after the Fracking boom

Post by ducknald_don »

zbigi wrote:
Tue Aug 02, 2022 4:33 am
mediocre public transit we have around here
That's the root of the problem. I don't have much of a problem with other people owning cars, I just want the choice to not own one.

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