David Holmgren wrote: A key characteristic of this scenario is the sense of divide between the reducing numbers of “haves” dependent on a job in the “system” and the relatively lawless, loose but perhaps communitarian “have nots” with their highly flexible and nomadic subcultures living from the wastes of the “system” and the wilds of nature. Security of the “haves” is a constant issue with gated communities, and apartheid style townships and barrios for the “have nots”. While economic depression and reduction in consumption slow greenhouse gas emissions, the rapid expansion of strategic investment by government in new energy and urban infrastructure more than replaces the reduced private consumption, leading to a positive feedback loop that accelerates global warming.
While the elites continue to be driven by a commitment to super rationalist beliefs, a sense of hollowness and lack of purpose characterises the shrinking middle class, while fundamentalist religions and cults plays a stronger role in the lives of the working and unemployed classes partly through genuine reactions to the failures of modern humanism and partly manipulated by the elites to deflect anger and disenchantment. The Brown Tech scenario could be dominant and even more or less socially stable for many decades until ongoing climatic breakdown and reduced net energy return drive a shift to the Lifeboats scenario.
Ha! Yes ... but that's where I think the lifeboat phase is further out in the future than you. Given where I live now that would just be a boat anchor... for a rather small but expensive boat. I think the ERE way would be to get an airsoft and practice with enthusiasm. Then level up later. I can vouch for the fact that it really works as long as you stick to the same gun.
@Jean - This human (me) might not be either. Like Japan, Denmark is in the top 5 or top 3 of the most gun restricted countries in the world. A positive side-effect of that is that you can (or could!) walk down Mainstreet brandishing airsofts with nobody batting an eye. (I don't think that's the case anymore.) Either way, I did a lot of airsoft in my teens, but didn't fire real guns until I was in my thirties in the US (thanks to the generous hospitality of ERE forumites and blogreaders). In my case, anyway, I was able to pick it (real guns) up rather quickly and more importantly hit what I aimed at. I won the ERE Glock17 competition for example. (The 17L was my favorite airsoft. Conversely, the 1911 didn't sit very well in my hand.) Ditto hitting clay targets consistently with a shot gun after making the noob "oh, the safety was still on" mistake the first time and the "trigger pressure is much higher than I thought" the second time around.
I do think that quantity (as long as it's somewhat aligned in practice) can substitute for quality (the real thing) quite a bit.
In any case, buying a real gun is something I think about once in a blue moon (every 5 years or so) but haven't gotten around to yet. For the time being, it's a hobby I'd enjoy except it's very much money down the drain with few ways of turning a net zero or a net profit. At least as far as I know. Which isn't that much.
I'm familiar with JMG. I am a big fan of his and, in fact, it was this forum (some two years ago) that turned me on to the earliest blog version of Retrotopia and then his other works, which have been a huge factor in my lifestyle decisions.
We can blame JMG for the fact that I now live in a reality TV show.
Social progress: The big concern (for me) is women's (and etc) lib. I vote we use our last gasp of petroleum to make drip lines and condoms. Or figure out how to make same with hemp and windmills. The social progress we've made, as zig-zaggy as it's been, seems predicated on my ability to make choices regarding when and if I have children. We lose that as a society and...damn. Dark ages.
I think my move to this community is something like a grasp at Green Tech/Earth Steward. More the latter than the former, because this place isn't economically very well off.
I think we'd do better here than a lot of other places -- mostly because people are already really used to living in poverty, partially by choice, partially by necessity. There's not a lot of well-paying work nearby, and the site itself doesn't generate enough income at present to take care of everyone (though that could change, I don't expect it to).
There are also several folks here -- I don't know how many, but that includes yours truly -- who are able to live here because they're living off the government in one way or another, or are partially supported by their parents (alive or dead). So if that dried up, so might this little rural semi-utopia they've got going here.
Also, our gun-toting rural neighbors who don't like us very much could come eat us if they wanted. Shrug. Strict "no guns on campus" policy.
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Much appreciation for everyone who responded to my query. I've read it all and am looking at some of the resources linked to. As often happens in this forum, the level of discourse and intelligence far outstrips my ability to respond/understand to most of what is offered. I enjoy the reach.
reepicheep wrote:I think my move to this community is something like a grasp at Green Tech/Earth Steward. More the latter than the former, because this place isn't economically very well off.
Well, as Holmgren noted, something like a nesting of all the scenarios is likely most realistic.
This nested hierarchy of scenarios explains why any planning for Lifeboats is mostly a private activity of people who lack total faith in the stability of our economy and society. Similarly many community activists work towards strategies that level the playing field, develop communitarian cultures and would be potent in an Earth Steward world, just as earnest middle level managers and planners work towards the Green Tech world as the best progressive evolution from what we have. Many of the elite “movers and shakers”, often from long established wealthy families in affluent countries, who move between the upper levels of corporations, governments and global governance organizations, believe the Brown Tech world is the hard reality that must be worked with (although this can hardly be acknowledged publicly)
So, it's really a matter of within which boundaries you are primarily investing your life energy. Engaging in the practice of permaculture will have the effect of placing your investment primarily within the community sphere. One thing to keep in mind is that listed within the Brown Tech reality is "abandonment of the hinterland", so that means more land to play with for less money IFF you can get by without most grid services.
Yeah. I can see the nesting. Dig it. Honestly I think anything bigger than local community just kind of overwhelms me. Too many people, too much complexity. And even within the local community, I feel a little life-boat-y. The infrastructure on site here is in seriously bad shape; my whole project (probably over the next year or so) is to make sure that "I've got mine."
The RV has solar panels. It's not completely off-grid, but if I had a wood-stove that and the solar panels I do have would enable me to solve the majority of any off-grid problems I might have. I have this whole thing about how I want to rig up something that collects rain water off the roof/awning and then pumps it into my fresh water tank through a filtration system -- either with a solar bump, or by hand with a bilge bump (probably I would fill a 55 gallon tank with water by hand exactly once before I decided I needed a solar pump). If I was dependent on the community to house me, I wouldn't be here.
Did it work, and will your vision decline again over time?
Yes. I have at least 20/20 vision right now, if not slightly better. I am (3 months later) just a touch photosensitive. I've been dealing with dry eyes since the surgery -- the first month required a copious quantity of eye drops -- but now I think I used drops once this morning when I woke up. Perhaps again sometime in the afternoon, but I don't remember. It's become much less of my daily rhythm.
Also yes or very likely, but from what I've heard from others the degradation is relatively slight and the timeline for that decline is decently long.
YMMV. The night before I got it done, my buddy sent me a NYT article full of anecdotes from people who really regretted it.
Some people have gotten LASIK and been in so much pain afterwards that they've killed themselves.
The former FDA guy who approved it is now lobbying against it.
Potable water collection is an issue. For some reason, my male peer partners on both of my projects have been content to make it like #27 on Must Do List, and keep hauling it in. I had a very rough working set up for “ clean enough for dishes” collection off of my camper which was too decrepit to make use of water tank and I can run across a highway to collect water from freezing cold lake at northern location.
The water you are collecting in your dehumidifier should be potable, but obviously using electricity for that purpose is not efficient.
I have this whole thing about how I want to rig up something that collects rain water off the roof/awning and then pumps it into my fresh water tank through a filtration system
Storage size matters on the west coast because 4-6 months will have little to no rainfall. Out of the prime 6 months of rainfall, most of them have the chance of overnight freezing, so some form of insulation and/or solar warmth is desireable to reduce the odds of storage tank(s) cracking.
@jacob
I agree with most you've said- The relevant ensemble depends of the time frame. I moves between all DNA based lifeforms, and your family. I think human won't be relevant until humans have alligned interests. I don't think that restrictive gun law is what makes people relaxed about guns. Switzerland used to be non restrictive, and going around with airsoft was not a problem either.
Modern guns are really easy to shoot with, and how well you shoot is a lot of nature. I haven't seen any progress in my range shooting abilities despite the training that was forced onto me. I was a decent shooter from the start, and I never went beyond decent. What you get better at is moving around with your gun (which airsoft will teach you), and the tactical use of the gun (which airsoft won't teach you, or even give you bad habits, because the engagment range is so different).
@George the original one, wonder how it would go if I put them inside of a greenhouse? Could do double duty (stacking functions! yay permaculture) as thermal mass for the greenhouse overnight? Could surround them with more silver bubble wrap, too. I think 4 500 gallon tanks would be more than sufficient even for a dry summer, for a single person. I go through about 55 gallons for all my needs in 7-10 days, and that includes a couple military showers a week. My napkin calculations suggest that 2k gallons would keep me for 36 weeks of no rain. It's a needless expenditure -- there's well-water here that is readily available and whatever costs are rolled into my rent aren't high -- but I rather like the idea of it, and the engineering challenge.
Ha! Yes ... but that's where I think the lifeboat phase is further out in the future than you. Given where I live now that would just be a boat anchor... for a rather small but expensive boat.
I am not saying the Lifeboat phase is imminently upon us, but rather, that risk models should have, at one end of the barbell, preparation for the worst case scenario and no allowance for “timing” the major transition event.
I picked up Steve Keen's "Debunking Economics" after watching video you linked above and noting that other forum members had appreciated it. So, color me a bit confused that you seem to respect his math/arguments, but not his conclusions or philosophy? IOW, it seems like you are vibing kind of like Heart of a Neo-Classicist Reductionist and Head of a Holistic Systems Theorist?
Keen's conclusions are not in alignment with notion of human social utility being maximized by self-interested individualistic behavior imagined as extension of "nature, red in tooth and claw" incomplete comprehension of Darwin. Humans can and do cooperate and monitor social behavior towards overall good.
Elinor Ostrum won Nobel Prize in Economics for her work which explicated the circumstances under which Hardin's "Tragedy of the Commons" has often been averted. I'm sure that Keen would nod head at Ostrom's Law- "A resource arrangement that works in practice can work in theory."
