Dimirty Orlov has this to say about money and the future:
A particularly annoying question I am often asked and have come to hate is: “How do I invest my money for it to survive financial, political and commercial collapse?” The short answer is: “Nohow. Money will not survive collapse; not yours, not anyone else's.” But that answer is not acceptable, because accepting it would require a profound loss of faith—faith in money, a profound Götterdämmerung for a civilization based on the worship of money.
more: http://cluborlov.blogspot.com/2011/04/f ... anism.html
With many interesting comments, too.
Anyone from ERE community care to add to discussion?
Financial Totalitarianism
I'm all for being prepared for contingencies but I'm not one who thinks economic/social collapse is inevitable, so this guy comes off as a little extreme to me.
"You cannot create your own global money system, and you cannot change the way the global money system works; either you are part of it, or you are out."
Why do I have to be part of it, or be out of it? Can't I use money when it's convenient and barter with neighbors and friends when it's convenient? Can't I keep some assets in stocks and some assets in tools, materials, shelter, food and clothing stores? Why this all or nothing attitude? He seems to want everyone to transition right now from a money economy to a complete subsistence lifestyle with a purely local barter economy simply because he thinks we will have to at some unknown point in the future.
But that's like jumping overboard before the ship's even sprung a leak. Could we hit an iceberg? Sure. But that's not a good reason to abandon ship and start swimming. Just have a lifeboat at the ready and enjoy the ride for as long as it lasts.
It's not all or nothing. You can own stocks AND raise some chickens.
"You cannot create your own global money system, and you cannot change the way the global money system works; either you are part of it, or you are out."
Why do I have to be part of it, or be out of it? Can't I use money when it's convenient and barter with neighbors and friends when it's convenient? Can't I keep some assets in stocks and some assets in tools, materials, shelter, food and clothing stores? Why this all or nothing attitude? He seems to want everyone to transition right now from a money economy to a complete subsistence lifestyle with a purely local barter economy simply because he thinks we will have to at some unknown point in the future.
But that's like jumping overboard before the ship's even sprung a leak. Could we hit an iceberg? Sure. But that's not a good reason to abandon ship and start swimming. Just have a lifeboat at the ready and enjoy the ride for as long as it lasts.
It's not all or nothing. You can own stocks AND raise some chickens.
I'm a huge, huge fan of Orlov but he's not right about everything. If you get really sick, and everybody does, will your Doctor accept chickens-----I don't think so. Find an enjoyable way to make some cash to cover your needs and build up savings for your security but always remember that true security doesn't eminate from savings.
djc
djc
Security is an illusion.
If there was a financial and government collapse so catastrophic that it took out all faith in the US dollar - starving to death would be the least of your concerns. In a country where owning a gun is a constitutional right and the majority of people can shoot better than they can cook or garden, my guess is that most of us would be dead in a few months, simply because we don't have enough bullets to kill all the poor, stupid, lazy people in the world who would rather shoot somebody else than learn how to find their own food and cook it.
If there was a financial and government collapse so catastrophic that it took out all faith in the US dollar - starving to death would be the least of your concerns. In a country where owning a gun is a constitutional right and the majority of people can shoot better than they can cook or garden, my guess is that most of us would be dead in a few months, simply because we don't have enough bullets to kill all the poor, stupid, lazy people in the world who would rather shoot somebody else than learn how to find their own food and cook it.
"many people want to somehow find an escape from this system while still clinging to their money." I see that as what most here are doing. I feel a bit of worry that putting most of my faith in my ability to buy my future lifestyle is doomed to failure in a world that has the means to ensure, if it wants, that I'm not able to. It has seemed to me for a long time that skills might be better to have than money. I like the ERE web site and discussion for the frugal and skill-type stuff but I find the investing stuff kind of a crapshoot.
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HeOfTheMountains
- Posts: 35
- Joined: Tue Apr 26, 2011 10:23 pm
I don't believe that there would be a total and complete social and economic collapse either. If such a thing happened, most of us would not survive it. The complete destruction of the division of labor and the break down of distribution of goods would literally cause the deaths of millions of people. They would starve, they would freeze to death, their health problems would rage out of control due to lack of medicine, it would be awful. And I don't believe that it would happen.
Not even the end of the Roman Empire was like this. It took centuries for the Roman Empire to decline until it fell apart. Its end wasn't violent, it faded. It was replaced by a lower order of organization in society, but not a complete breakdown.
I find it difficult to name specific periods in history where a total and complete breakdown occurred resulting in the complete destruction of the society in question. I think these events are so rare in history (and might even be mythical) that they are probably not worth planning for. They are also probably next to impossible to plan for, because you can't predict what will happen or how it will affect you specifically.
On the other had, recessions and depressions can and do happen. But remember that even in the worst depression the U.S. had, the Great Depression, 75% were still employed (25% unemployment). These are bad figures, but it just shows that even in that event, it was not remotely close to a "breakdown".
If you can develop a self-sufficient source(s) of income, live below your means, and so on, you would probably be better able to handle a great depression event. However, like everyone else, you would have to contend with lower-quality products, product shortages, and maybe even increased crime. But great depression events do not last forever. These are temporary events, even if they don't seem like it at the time, for the people who live through it.
The danger is that inflation and hyperinflation might destroy your capital. The best insurance against this "might" be to own gold/silver coin (American eagles for the U.S.), not so you would use them during a depression (gold as a commodity would likely be depressed in price during this time), but so that when the depression is over, and prices recover, you can liquidate the gold for the (new?, stabilized?) currency and reinvest again. (Paid-off real estate, too, can be a hedge against inflation.)
But there is no need to put all your capital into gold, nor is it wise. Gold under-performs as an investment, historically. It is a hedge, not really an investment. It's done very well in the last decade, but because more and more investors wanted a hedge. It's demand is growing as a hedge... but that demand will end someday. When? Who knows.
So I don't believe in apocalyptic scenarios. We won't see complete economic and social breakdown. We might see a higher incidence of problems. But none of this is new; as a human species, we've seen it all before. It may get worse, but it'll also get better again, given enough time.
Not even the end of the Roman Empire was like this. It took centuries for the Roman Empire to decline until it fell apart. Its end wasn't violent, it faded. It was replaced by a lower order of organization in society, but not a complete breakdown.
I find it difficult to name specific periods in history where a total and complete breakdown occurred resulting in the complete destruction of the society in question. I think these events are so rare in history (and might even be mythical) that they are probably not worth planning for. They are also probably next to impossible to plan for, because you can't predict what will happen or how it will affect you specifically.
On the other had, recessions and depressions can and do happen. But remember that even in the worst depression the U.S. had, the Great Depression, 75% were still employed (25% unemployment). These are bad figures, but it just shows that even in that event, it was not remotely close to a "breakdown".
If you can develop a self-sufficient source(s) of income, live below your means, and so on, you would probably be better able to handle a great depression event. However, like everyone else, you would have to contend with lower-quality products, product shortages, and maybe even increased crime. But great depression events do not last forever. These are temporary events, even if they don't seem like it at the time, for the people who live through it.
The danger is that inflation and hyperinflation might destroy your capital. The best insurance against this "might" be to own gold/silver coin (American eagles for the U.S.), not so you would use them during a depression (gold as a commodity would likely be depressed in price during this time), but so that when the depression is over, and prices recover, you can liquidate the gold for the (new?, stabilized?) currency and reinvest again. (Paid-off real estate, too, can be a hedge against inflation.)
But there is no need to put all your capital into gold, nor is it wise. Gold under-performs as an investment, historically. It is a hedge, not really an investment. It's done very well in the last decade, but because more and more investors wanted a hedge. It's demand is growing as a hedge... but that demand will end someday. When? Who knows.
So I don't believe in apocalyptic scenarios. We won't see complete economic and social breakdown. We might see a higher incidence of problems. But none of this is new; as a human species, we've seen it all before. It may get worse, but it'll also get better again, given enough time.
I tend to look at the potential breakdown of society the way I look at metaphysics/epistemology. At the end of the day, the universe may not really exist. But I might as well act like it does because there's nothing I can do about it. Likewise, I might as well act like the society will go on, because any way I try to plan for collapse will probably be ineffective or at least inefficient considering the odds of it happening.
I just finished John Wesley Rawles two books (survivalblog). I especially enjoyed the fact laden fiction 'Patriots: Survive the Apocalypse!' I even think such a scenario is not that unlikely.
However, to do it as described as ideal is literally decades of work (for most). You have to dedicate your entire life (known) based on the belief (unknown) that TEOTWAWKI is inevitable and near.
I'm willing to give a few percent of my energy to make some preparations that will give me a head start. But logically I cannot see dedicating my entire life to a hypothetical.
However, to do it as described as ideal is literally decades of work (for most). You have to dedicate your entire life (known) based on the belief (unknown) that TEOTWAWKI is inevitable and near.
I'm willing to give a few percent of my energy to make some preparations that will give me a head start. But logically I cannot see dedicating my entire life to a hypothetical.
Back in the era of the Great Depression, most women didn't work in the workforce. So to say that 75% of the people were employed isn't quite accurate.
And bigato is right. We have never had such a complex, interdependent and fragile civilization as we do now. Nor have we ever had 7 billion people on the planet all striving to live this way. Just about everything we depend on for life depends on one resource and should that resource be interrupted, no amount of money will be able to make up for resourcefulness, skill and physical fitness.
And bigato is right. We have never had such a complex, interdependent and fragile civilization as we do now. Nor have we ever had 7 billion people on the planet all striving to live this way. Just about everything we depend on for life depends on one resource and should that resource be interrupted, no amount of money will be able to make up for resourcefulness, skill and physical fitness.
The gloom and doom predictions are like the never ending sunshine economy/real estate predictions before 2008. They are both so extreme, as to be impossible. The Great Depression followed by WWII was a much much much much more severe series of events than just a large debt (WWII actually created a larger government debt, as a percentage of GDP http://www.usgovernmentspending.com/fed ... chart.html ).
The bombing of Hamburg in WWII killed roughly 50,000 and destroyed an entire city in just a few days, and this went on for half a decade. If this and many other massive events in this timeline, both war related and economic were not enough to destroy society, I fail to see how a large debt and the beginning of resource scarcity make it a likely probability. Increased possibility, yes, but not likely.
The end result that is much more likely is just big change. Some cities and countries will lose (not necessarily collapse), while others prosper. The same with people. Mad Max or The Road scenarios just aren't that realistic at this point.
The bombing of Hamburg in WWII killed roughly 50,000 and destroyed an entire city in just a few days, and this went on for half a decade. If this and many other massive events in this timeline, both war related and economic were not enough to destroy society, I fail to see how a large debt and the beginning of resource scarcity make it a likely probability. Increased possibility, yes, but not likely.
The end result that is much more likely is just big change. Some cities and countries will lose (not necessarily collapse), while others prosper. The same with people. Mad Max or The Road scenarios just aren't that realistic at this point.
@M - "...my guess is that most of us would be dead in a few months, simply because we don't have enough bullets to kill all the poor, stupid, lazy people in the world who would rather shoot somebody else than learn how to find their own food and cook it." But that is where you are wrong! This is where a survivalist, former Army Airborne Ranger, gun loving, make-my-own-bullets, shoot-first-ask-questions-later boyfriend comes in real handy. Man, I love that dude! I'm only half joking, and I see your point. But if you are going to be prepared, go all the way with it I say.
Hey, c'mon now JohnnyH, let's leave Chuck out of this, shall we? You know Chuck Norris made a mistake once? It corrected itself.
Seriously though, if we come to end of days, all bets are off anyways. I'm just saying it doesn't hurt to have all your bases covered to the extent you can - which to me includes but probably isn't limited to food, water, shelter, tools, skills, some damn good shoes, and a way to protect yourself/family/tribe.
Seriously though, if we come to end of days, all bets are off anyways. I'm just saying it doesn't hurt to have all your bases covered to the extent you can - which to me includes but probably isn't limited to food, water, shelter, tools, skills, some damn good shoes, and a way to protect yourself/family/tribe.