bostonimproper's journal

[ertyu]

How long do you have left?

[bostonimproper]

@ertyu About three months

[ertyu]

fingers crossed, i hope this goes how you hope it does. three months seem a lot but at the same time they'll go fast. good luck

[zbigi]

Even if someone there would be happy to see you go, I imagine HR/legal would strongly advise against stealth firing of a pregnant woman.

[bostonimproper]

Fun fact I learned today: Because New England resisted building nat gas pipelines (anti-fracking, anti-fossil fuel, etc), the region isn’t really able to import nat gas easily from other areas of the US. Which means, in turn, that we’re exposed to the same LNG markets as Europe. So this winter we may be looking at “controlled blackouts” since our electrical grid relies heavily on nat gas, as do many households for their winter heating.

SO THAT’S GREAT. Now I’m like… do we move somewhere else this winter? Because we’re about to have a baby. And New England winters get cold. And I didn’t get us a battery system or a generator and so even though we have a heat pump system that we could use for heating instead of our nat gas furnace, we’re still outta luck if the grid goes down.

[zbigi]

> Which means, in turn, that we’re exposed to the same LNG markets as Europe.

AFAIK, the issue is the price, not limited availability. If electricy-producing companies will outbid buyers in Europe and elsewhere, they will get the gas and the means to transport it (I'm assuming ships?). If that price would make your local electricity-producing companies go bankrupt, the state government will likely interfere with some handout. At least that's what would happen in a reasonably governed country. America can be crazy bad in that regard sometimes, so there's still some risk of blackouts.

[ertyu]

About the blackouts: I've lived through black-outs in winter in eastern europe; as long as it's 1-2 hrs on / 1-2 hrs off, it's fine. The place doesn't have time to cool completely. My father rigged up a car accumulator that got charged during the on times and it provided weak lighting during the off times. Heated water bottles under blankets are your friend. Heating one well-insulated room vs the whole house is your friend also. I get the anxiety about having a baby without consistent electricity; if you decide to get an airbnb in mexico for the duration, i wouldn't blame you, but at the same time, being away from home with a small baby is also difficult but in different ways, mostly having to do with negotiating the new healthcare system + how you get supplies etc. If you do decide to shell out the cash and move, health insurance permitting, you might want to stay within the US where the system is more or less familiar.

ETA: you might consider a free-standing oil radiator that runs on electricity. This type of space heater will radiate heat for a while after it's switched off because the oil retains heat. If the blackouts are short, lasting around an hour to two max, it will be ok.

[theanimal]

AFAIK, the issue is the price, not limited availability.

The reverse. The issue is supply, which then influences the price. Almost all LNG is secured through long term contracts, meaning that quickly buying more during a period of low supply isn't really possible. It simply isn't available. It is also limited by number of ports and storage (of which New England has very little of).

American governing style is reactive rather than proactive. Meaning if there is a cold winter sparking high demand, there is a very strong likelihood of blackouts. Subsidizing demand would exacerbate the issue, by putting further pressure on supply. Though this seems to be the popular tactic in Europe so far, and there is little reason to indicate the US would act differently.

[chenda]

Is Canada more energy secure ? If so it's closer to home and I imagine easier to navigate with things being more similar than Mexico.

[Chris]

Because New England resisted building nat gas pipelines (anti-fracking, anti-fossil fuel, etc), the region isn’t really able to import nat gas easily from other areas of the US.

That's true. But NY has also resisted approving new NG infrastructure, so you can spread some of the blame to NY (sorry!). Also Mainers voting against that ballot measure to build electric transmission lines from Canada was dumb.

Let's look at the numbers from Feb 2022 (1, 2); data from EIA (in billions cubic feet):

Total nat gas delivered: 48.7 (Residential: 19.3, Electric power: 8.9)
LNG imported: 2.9

Interestingly, the majority of US LNG imports come into MA. But even then, that amount is dwarfed by the gas supply coming from existing pipelines. I would expect prices to be higher than last year, but no blackouts due to lack of supply.

[theanimal]

Like in Europe, the big thing will be IF there is a cold winter. IF there is a cold winter, there will be high demand. LNG serves as a buffer during periods of high demand for New England and will not be available (if it is cold) to power companies. Most gas is reserved in advance for gas utility companies for residential and commercial use. If other areas are experiencing similar hardships, NE is unlikely to receive more via pipelines and either way is limited by capacity in terms of both pipeline and non existent storage. LNG can not be shipped to US ports from other ports within the US due to the Jones Act. Hence the reason that Massachusetts imports nearly all of their LNG from Trinidad & Tobago.

@BI-I am not familiar with gas heating. If your setup does not require electricity, it at least seems unlikely that you would lose access to heating.

[jacob]

SO THAT’S GREAT. Now I’m like… do we move somewhere else this winter? Because we’re about to have a baby. And New England winters get cold. And I didn’t get us a battery system or a generator and so even though we have a heat pump system that we could use for heating instead of our nat gas furnace, we’re still outta luck if the grid goes down.

Consider simply "moving into warmer clothing". While such advice sounds facetious, but one needs only go back by 1 or 2 generations before waking up in the morning finding snow from one's breath on the top of the bed covers or ice on top of the cup of one's drinking water. Such was the way of living in northern climes before HVAC. Freezing coldness is comfortably survivable for appropriately dressed humans, iff and insofar one owns cold weather clothing and exhibit a modicum of sense to "wear everything you have" if you don't, yet. If not, see https://www.texastribune.org/2022/01/02 ... -toll-246/ That's one of those events that leaves northeners wondering "how is this even possible?!?!" Answer, because it was just inconceivable to those who learn after the concrete fact. Same basic explanation as to why some drivers crash left and right every time the weather of the season changes as if they've never experienced rain or snow in their life before. It is what it is.

[Ego]

What about a kerosene space heater?

[mooretrees]

Newborns are not good at regulating their temperature, but it seems like that mainly pertains to making sure they don’t overheat? When are you due? And maybe consider connecting with a pediatrician to ask how the baby will fare in cold weather.

[7Wannabe5]

Worst case scenario you could just keep your infant skin to skin with you. Your extremities will be numb before the baby even feels the cold.

[zbigi]

People used to have some means of heating their spaces, so even if indoor temperature dropped to close to freezing in the morning, they quickly brought it back to higher levels after waking up. That might not be possible during an prolonged blackout in a house that doesn't have an alternative source of heat.

Also, babies' mortality was through the roof back then. Babies need to be undressed on a regular basis (to change diapers), and exposing their bare bodies to temperatures close to freezing may not end well. True, we have antibiotics now, so they will probably not die when they get pneumonia, but I imagine parents would prefer not exposing their child and themselves to such adventures.

[ertyu]

why do you think the blackout would be prolongued? even former socialist land got their shirt together and we had an actual schedule where it was known which neighborhood will go dark when. i guess given what happened to texas last year, nothing is impossible, but i assume that if there is an actual, centralized need for outages, they would be orderly?

or not?

what does everyone else think

[chenda]

I believe Texas's problem was exacerbated due to its running its own grid, and could not easily import electricity from other neighbouring states.

'Load shedding' is very common in South Africa; scheduled periods of supply cut off to prevent sudden and unplanned blackouts. They are often planned months in advance and published in the media.

But going back to @bostonimproper, I think you should do what you're most comfortable with. I can well understand heating is the last thing you would want to worry about with a little bubbaroo arriving : )

[Gilberto de Piento]

@BI-I am not familiar with gas heating. If your setup does not require electricity, it at least seems unlikely that you would lose access to heating.

I'm not an expert but I think any relatively modern forced air furnace is going to need electricity to run the igniter, controls, and the fan that pushes the air through the ducts. The fan is going to be a significant electrical draw. I found a few posts where people talked about running a furnace for a while off of a battery but it seems extremely uncommon. A generator is probably the best solution.

[Gilberto de Piento]

What about a kerosene space heater?

Or propane space heater but I think with either you have to have a window or door open to the outside due to carbon monoxide poisoning.

Could also see about getting a wood stove installed.

Also a good opportunity to take advantage of social capital. Friends with an alternate heat source could be a backup plan.

Energy audit to determine if reducing air infiltration and adding insulation can help reduce the need for heating.