Jeff Bezos has a plan

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daylen
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Jeff Bezos has a plan

Post by daylen » Thu Oct 04, 2018 6:45 pm

There have been a few interviews done on YouTube where Jeff talks a bit about his plan to colonize the solar system in the long term. He is an interesting thinker, and the most productive person in the world if your measuring stick is cash. According to him he is always looking ahead to the next 2-8 years when making decisions at Amazon. Though, he says that his space company "Blue Origin" is more important because we do not want to live in a world of stasis in 200 years.

I agree with him. Though, I think his optimism may be blinding him to the risks and barriers ahead. I do not know much about him, so maybe I am wrong.

Thoughts? What is Amazon's future? ..Blue Origin? ..The Washington Post? ..the space industry in general?

"All companies die" - Geoffrey West. Maybe we can mix some of the topics from "Scale" into these questions.

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Re: Jeff Bezos has a plan

Post by prognastat » Thu Oct 04, 2018 8:20 pm

I'm glad that there are people financially capable and interested in moving us forward in going to space. The more the better in that sense. Is he overly optimistic, probably. However if this leads to progress to a lesser degree than he expects, but more than we would otherwise have had I'll take it.

As for Amazon, it doesn't look like it's growth is stopping any time soon.
Last edited by prognastat on Fri Oct 05, 2018 9:42 am, edited 1 time in total.

EdithKeeler
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Re: Jeff Bezos has a plan

Post by EdithKeeler » Fri Oct 05, 2018 5:47 am

I love Jeff Bezos and Elon Musk (even tho Musk is a bit of a jerk). Jeff Bezos and I are the same age, and I imagine him reading the same sci-fi as I did when I was a kid—and being really pissed when he grew up and we didn’t have jet packs and Mars colonies. So he’s doing something about it. I love that photo of him in the early days of Amazon where he’s got hair and sitting at a big desk with a paper banner that says Amazon.com on it.

The guy is a pioneer in my book. He’s done more to to change books and how we read them since Gutenberg. He’s changed how we shop, love it or not (I love it). He’s doing innovative stuff with his money, and I admire that (the Waltons mostly just sit on their millions, as far as I can tell).

And he’s done all this from reasonably humble beginnings, not with a $400m inflow of money of dubious origins from his dad.

Yeah, I’m a Bezos fan girl.

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Re: Jeff Bezos has a plan

Post by Jason » Fri Oct 05, 2018 11:14 am

He's only doing it to get into the extra terrestrial retail markets before anyone else.

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Re: Jeff Bezos has a plan

Post by prognastat » Fri Oct 05, 2018 11:24 am

Jason wrote:
Fri Oct 05, 2018 11:14 am
He's only doing it to get into the extra terrestrial retail markets before anyone else.
It's the only way to guarantee Amazon's continued growth once the earth market has been saturated... He's looking way more than 2-8 years ahead.

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Re: Jeff Bezos has a plan

Post by jacob » Fri Oct 05, 2018 11:30 am

What I find interesting is the Neal Stephenson has worked as an advisor/met with Bezos at Blue Origin (the space company). This was somewhat before Seveneves came out. I bet research had been going on for a while. Blue Origin was initially a somewhat more experimental/secretive company before it became a touristy space elevator. Quite a different approach than SpaceX.

For more, see: https://www.amazon.com/Space-Barons-Bez ... 610398297/

Kinda seems that every tech billionaire has a space program. Paul Allen (now Stratolaunch, formerly associated with SpaceShipOne(*)) and Richard Branson (Virgin Galatic).

(*) A test pilot died and Allen didn't take it well.

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Re: Jeff Bezos has a plan

Post by Jason » Fri Oct 05, 2018 11:37 am

@ Prognastat

If I was an already struggling independent, family owned Martian book store operator, you could be damn sure I'd hire this woman right fucking now.

https://www.nytimes.com/2018/09/07/tech ... mazon.html

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Re: Jeff Bezos has a plan

Post by jacob » Fri Oct 05, 2018 11:45 am

The ERE book is pretty much available exclusively through amazon now. There's just no competition(*). I tried opening it op to third parties at one point. However, the printer (a subsidiary of amazon, now recently absorbed into KDP) would offer it with less royalties to me and slightly cheaper than amazon could profit from it.

What consequently happened? Various algorithmic book arbitragers would offer the book on amazon's used market for $0.01 less ... and people being frugal or hating amazon would buy it from them instead of amazon thus saving the buyer 1 cent and costing me five bucks in lost revenue per book. It took me a few years to realize what was going on before I shut the channel down.

(*) Or maybe there is. I'm too lazy to investigate. I'm pretty sure that cult nonfiction doesn't compare with going wide on romance novels. Anyway ...

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Re: Jeff Bezos has a plan

Post by Jason » Fri Oct 05, 2018 12:01 pm

I bet you would do better than MMM in the ET marketplace being that they've already been introduced to the bicycle.

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Re: Jeff Bezos has a plan

Post by jacob » Fri Oct 05, 2018 12:09 pm

Oh, in order to try to understand the mindset(*) ... it's also interesting to note that Amazon Studios picked up season 4 of The Expanse after Syfy cancelled.

(*) Kegan4,5, ... optimistic/pessimist/complex ...

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Re: Jeff Bezos has a plan

Post by Jason » Fri Oct 05, 2018 12:32 pm

The guy watches Star Trek reruns in the middle of the night and calls up UPS executives "Listen, you just throw a coat of brown paint on the fucking thing and we beam the books up for nothing. But we still charge the assholes postage. I'll just tell them I give a shit about space."

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Re: Jeff Bezos has a plan

Post by Jean » Fri Oct 05, 2018 12:44 pm

have you tried lulu.com ?

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7Wannabe5
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Re: Jeff Bezos has a plan

Post by 7Wannabe5 » Fri Oct 05, 2018 12:47 pm

Some naive people think the purpose of a corporation is equivalent to its mission statement. Others believe it must be to "profit", but system thinkers know that the purpose of a corporation is "Dominance."

I am paraphrasing Donella Meadows here.

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Re: Jeff Bezos has a plan

Post by prognastat » Fri Oct 05, 2018 1:15 pm

I'd say it's base purpose is the same as any living being and as such things constituted from living beings which is growth. Profit and dominance are both potential results of growth.

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Re: Jeff Bezos has a plan

Post by Jason » Fri Oct 05, 2018 1:26 pm

Exploration of earth was not a product of a bunch of idealistic guys saying "Gee, I really love geography and want to open up new vistas for the betterment of mankind." It was a product of a bunch of materialistic guys wanting to open up new marketplaces who spoke such bullshit. Space exploration is no different.

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7Wannabe5
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Re: Jeff Bezos has a plan

Post by 7Wannabe5 » Fri Oct 05, 2018 2:02 pm

@prognastat:

Right, except a Corporation does not have the same limits to growth and mortality as a creature within a skin sac. Maybe more like fungus.

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daylen
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Re: Jeff Bezos has a plan

Post by daylen » Fri Oct 05, 2018 2:25 pm

A corporation is like both an organism and a city. The energy required scales sub-linearly like organisms, but when a company grows big enough it may start to behave in a similar manner to a city. A large enough organization can construct an innovative culture where creative destruction happens at a low level (i.e. employee teams) so the whole can survive.

This is a lot like how a fungal mass can redistribute resources in responce to environmental changes detected on the opposing side of the forest.

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Re: Jeff Bezos has a plan

Post by jacob » Fri Oct 05, 2018 2:39 pm

A corporation is like the mainspring in a clock. It unwinds increasingly faster but only as fast as the escapement will allow it. The escapement regulates the energy release and is governed by the balance spring to keep track of time. This is the same way governments stabilize the political system so it doesn't collapse or start a war.

This is lot like how humans apply their favorite metaphors to the world and ascribe all sorts of qualities that might not be there after all.

With apologies to daylen for co-opting the phrasing.

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Re: Jeff Bezos has a plan

Post by daylen » Fri Oct 05, 2018 2:50 pm

@Jacob Is that a metaphor from "Images of Organization? I have looked only at bits and pieces of that book so far. Any particular subsection you recommend for me?

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Re: Jeff Bezos has a plan

Post by jacob » Fri Oct 05, 2018 2:58 pm

No, I just made that one up.
(I've fiddled with mechanical watches before. I've taken one apart and put it back together in a running conditions, so I know how they work.)

It's been too long since I read IoO for me to recommend specific parts but I still remember it as a very interesting book. Just read the whole thing.
IIRC it's in the ERE book's bibliography too.

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