Zeihan is an interesting one. The more conspiratorial, tin foil hat, right wing side of me immediately suspects he is some sort of propaganda type "controlled op"--I mean, why is his audiobook 1/5 of the price of any other audiobook in that tier, and to what end do the daily, YouTube algorithm friendly, video posts serve (could it just be marketing for his book sales and consulting, coupled with some narcistic tendencies)?
Yeah, his bread and butter is charging keynote speaking fees at trade shows.
The rest is marketing. The decision makers for events that can pay that chunk of change are well connected and very prone to presenting the party line. Often when I read or watch something of his, the patriot in me hopes he is right... which makes something in the back of my mind tingle with skepticism.
The rest is marketing. The decision makers for events that can pay that chunk of change are well connected and very prone to presenting the party line. Often when I read or watch something of his, the patriot in me hopes he is right... which makes something in the back of my mind tingle with skepticism.
The complaints I've heard/seen of him that seem to have the most traction are those that take issue with the very fact that he is a generalist and therefore his opinions as to any specific place lack some depth. But for anyone who is not a generalist who knows a whole lot about one specific place/people, it's difficult to separate out the bias that that specialist is necessarily going to have. As an example, in one recent interview in response to a question about Turkey's future he said he could see Turkey looking to the Balkans for "expansion" (by which he probably meant more NAFTA type expansion as opposed to old Ottoman empire type imperialist expansion). I lived in Bulgaria on the Turkish border for two years (I'm certainly NOT saying I am any sort of expert on Bulgarian/Turkish relations, I just remember how at least some of my Bulgarian neighbors spoke of Turks) and my immediate reaction was--"you've got to be f'ing kidding me; the Bulgarians will ALWAYS have a chip on their shoulder when it comes to the Turks, thanks to the centuries of the 'Ottoman Yolk'!". But, then I started thinking; well, if Zeihan is mostly right about Russia's future and if Bulgaria and the Balkans generally find themselves on the outs of a more Franco-centric EU, perhaps the Bulgarians could get used to the idea of a version of Ottoman Empire 2.0, that might look like something more akin to a regional free trading alliance among those countries that aren't quite European and also aren't quite Arabic, with Turkey calling the shots.
I don't know; it's interesting. Zeihan is like some sort of hybrid between, on the one hand, your blowhard YouTuber/blogger/substack writer who is all opinion and no knowledge (using Plato's epistemology), and your university academic on the other hand who refuses to stake out his position on something unless it is of the extremely arcane, angels dancing on the head of a pin type of issue. Both the former and the latter can largely be disregarded; but those folks like Zeihan can be dangerous.
I finished "the end of the world is just the beginning" recently too, and I agree that for the countries I'm intimately familiar with, his take felt quite oversimplified, which made me question what to trust in the book. But I still learned a lot and his discussion of demography was eye-opening, I really hadn't thought about it this deeply. I'm going to read "disunited nations" next.
First, Zeihan's book (https://www.amazon.com/End-World-Just-B ... han&sr=8-3) is presenting a view of collapse that I--as an American in a region he predicts to thrive--find to be downright joyful. An end to globalization as we know it and its tenuous just-in-time supply chains and a return to regionalism and re-industrialization of the US, what's not to like about it?
Second, I'm realizing my goal of hitting a 1-2-3-4 milestone under the barbell by my birthday may be a bit of an overreach at my age and genetic disposition. I strained my lower back last week which made me realize just how far I have to go on deadlifts. I've switched to the "cocaine" deadlift (https://barbell-logic.com/gym-shorts-floating-deadlift/) for a bit to deal with the recovery, which certainly helps, but it's a reminder that at my age I really need to focus on form and not rush things. Also, I've slightly modified my training regimen again to add in some more volume. It's essentially the same as what I've been doing except to add in 2 sets of 5 at 90% following my 1x5 at 100% of my intensity lift for the day. So:
M: press 1x5 at 100% followed by 2x5 at 90%; bench press 5x5 at 85%; plus accessory lift.
T: deadlift 1x5 at 100% followed by 2x5 at 90%; squat 5x5 at 85%; plus accessory lift.
R: bench press 1x5 at 100% followed by 2x5 at 90%; press 5x5 at 85%; plus accessory lift.
F: squat 1x5 at 100% followed by 2x5 at 90%; deadlift 3x5 at 85%; plus accessory lift.
We'll see how this works. I'm hoping some volume will help push things a long a little without needing to up my caloric intake in a way that would sacrifice some of my other health-related goals.
Third, since starting the strength training I've struggled to find jeans that fit. In the past I've had luck with the Levi's STF 501s, of which I currently own 4 in various stages of wear, and all but the most recently purchased pair have been patched up multiple times. But the STF jeans are kind of a pain in the ass to break in, especially when my body composition is changing thanks to the barbell (also, I'm not sure if the STF jeans are quite what they used to be in terms of quality). So I've struggled to find a replacement and have tried quite a few alternatives: Roundhouse, Sam's private label, non STF Levi's, and some others I'm probably forgetting. But none have worked. Alas, at Wal-Mart with my son the other day I thought I'd try on some Wal-Mart Wranglers (Wrangler "Authentics"--i.e., Wrangler's cheap label with flimsy denim), and they are perfect. The denim is cheap, but the fit and look is perfect for just over $10 and none of the work involved with STF jeans, and they pair quite nicely with my Wolverine 1000 milers. I'm sure the denim won't hold up for very long, but my experience with jeans has been that with crotch blowouts and the like all denim at a price point I'm willing to pay is going to be some version of a throwaway article of clothing.
Third, since starting the strength training I've struggled to find jeans that fit. In the past I've had luck with the Levi's STF 501s, of which I currently own 4 in various stages of wear, and all but the most recently purchased pair have been patched up multiple times. But the STF jeans are kind of a pain in the ass to break in, especially when my body composition is changing thanks to the barbell (also, I'm not sure if the STF jeans are quite what they used to be in terms of quality). So I've struggled to find a replacement and have tried quite a few alternatives: Roundhouse, Sam's private label, non STF Levi's, and some others I'm probably forgetting. But none have worked. Alas, at Wal-Mart with my son the other day I thought I'd try on some Wal-Mart Wranglers (Wrangler "Authentics"--i.e., Wrangler's cheap label with flimsy denim), and they are perfect. The denim is cheap, but the fit and look is perfect for just over $10 and none of the work involved with STF jeans, and they pair quite nicely with my Wolverine 1000 milers. I'm sure the denim won't hold up for very long, but my experience with jeans has been that with crotch blowouts and the like all denim at a price point I'm willing to pay is going to be some version of a throwaway article of clothing.
Try Levi’s 541s. That worked for me. You may find that the same is true for other pants as well. It’s kind of annoying as it severely limits one’s options as most men’s pants are made to be very baggy or for those with nearly no muscle in the thighs. There are some options out there though.
First, Zeihan's book is presenting a view of collapse that I--as an American in a region he predicts to thrive--find to be downright joyful. An end to globalization as we know it and its tenuous just-in-time supply chains and a return to regionalism and re-industrialization of the US, what's not to like about it?
His China collapse theory is so specific, so extreme (hyperbole?), so unique (few others say anything similar) and dovetails so perfectly with the desires of his consulting and trade-show customers that it makes me wonder. A guy could get fairly wealthy preaching to the choir at $30K a pop for 250 talks a year for a few years before people figure it out.
Then again, he makes a good case and predicted Ukraine years ago, almost to the day. He was on Jack Carr's Danger Close podcast this week. Carr's books are a guilty pleasure of mine. I listened to it while I ran. Pretty good.
First, Zeihan's book (https://www.amazon.com/End-World-Just-B ... han&sr=8-3) is presenting a view of collapse that I--as an American in a region he predicts to thrive--find to be downright joyful. An end to globalization as we know it and its tenuous just-in-time supply chains and a return to regionalism and re-industrialization of the US, what's not to like about it?
For you as a person with above-average standard of living, your purchasing power will probably be lowered (by increased price of basic goods) [1]. However, one could argue that derisking the suply chains, increasing social cohesion by flattening the income gap and getting rid of the moral stink of doing business with a genocidal dictatorship is more than worth it.
[1] People in the bottom percentiles may actually be better off though, as the increase in prices may be more than offset by the increase in wages for low-skill work.
You might find "Homecoming: :The Path to Prosperity in a Post-Global World" by Rana Foroohar interesting. I'm not very familiar with Zeihan, but I believe Foroohar is making similar predictions, but from somewhat more "green-tech" perspective. Her immigrant father ran a small machine-shop in Indiana (a world I am also familiar with due to fact that half the Midwestern men I date are mechanical engineers who like to tinker), so she is kind of bilingual in "coastal"/"flyover." So, her take is more along the line that high-tech will help with a return to regionalism.
His China collapse theory is so specific, so extreme (hyperbole?), so unique (few others say anything similar) and dovetails so perfectly with the desires of his consulting and trade-show customers that it makes me wonder. A guy could get fairly wealthy preaching to the choir at $30K a pop for 250 talks a year for a few years before people figure it out.
Then again, he makes a good case and predicted Ukraine years ago, almost to the day. He was on Jack Carr's Danger Close podcast this week. Carr's books are a guilty pleasure of mine. I listened to it while I ran. Pretty good.
I take Zeihan with a HUGE grain of salt. I think he is serving as an interesting gateway to geopolitics for me, however. The challenge will be to not let his worldview overly color how I see things in the news. E.g., with the SVB thing my first thought was: "Aha! Capital is becoming more expensive just like Zeihan said and now look what's happening!" The guy is in my head at the moment; I don't think he will stay there indefinitely. Socrates is also still in my head, and Socrates doesn't allow me to accept anything uncritically.
Second, I'm realizing my goal of hitting a 1-2-3-4 milestone under the barbell by my birthday may be a bit of an overreach at my age and genetic disposition. I strained my lower back last week which made me realize just how far I have to go on deadlifts. I've switched to the "cocaine" deadlift (https://barbell-logic.com/gym-shorts-floating-deadlift/) for a bit to deal with the recovery, which certainly helps, but it's a reminder that at my age I really need to focus on form and not rush things. Also, I've slightly modified my training regimen again to add in some more volume. It's essentially the same as what I've been doing except to add in 2 sets of 5 at 90% following my 1x5 at 100% of my intensity lift for the day. So:
M: press 1x5 at 100% followed by 2x5 at 90%; bench press 5x5 at 85%; plus accessory lift.
T: deadlift 1x5 at 100% followed by 2x5 at 90%; squat 5x5 at 85%; plus accessory lift.
R: bench press 1x5 at 100% followed by 2x5 at 90%; press 5x5 at 85%; plus accessory lift.
F: squat 1x5 at 100% followed by 2x5 at 90%; deadlift 3x5 at 85%; plus accessory lift.
We'll see how this works. I'm hoping some volume will help push things a long a little without needing to up my caloric intake in a way that would sacrifice some of my other health-related goals.
A few things:
-I would be very careful training for 1RM if you're actually planning on testing it at some point. 1RM carry the highest injury risk and I think are not worthwhile for lifters to test UNLESS you are competing in Powerlifting or Weightlifting. Instead, if you want to focus more on strength, I would just test with doubles or triples. Alternatively, you can just use a 1RM calculator to get the equivalent from a set of 5.
-On a related note, if you want to improve strength without gaining muscle, you want to stick with lower volume and higher intensity. This allows one to train for the specificity of moving heavier weights. So you want rep ranges that are in the 2-3 range rather than 5+. See here for a deep dive: https://youtu.be/DupQfkoI-Sc
-In terms of improving technique, the only way I got better was to film my lifts. I think SS still has a forum where you can post your lifts for technique feedback. Once you get a bit more experienced, you will know what right looks like and be able to recognize when your technique is failing on a particular set/rep. Then you can also tweak your accessory exercises to address the causes of your technical failure that are due to muscle weakness. For example, my squat always failed when my butt rose too fast out of the hole, which is a sign of weak quads. So I did a lot of quad accessory work and really focused on driving with my quads out of the hole when I got fatigued.
-Someday, you will reach a point where you can not physically lift more weight given the amount of muscle on your body, but I suspect you are probably not at that point. Even intermediate trainees usually haven't maximized strength for a particular body weight.
-Speaking of body weight, nutrition is the other large factor in the equation. I know a lot of the SS diehards poo poo worrying about diet, which I think in general is a fine approach for novices since they just need to eat some protein and enough calories to make progress. However, as you become stronger you will reach a point where the ratio of protein, fat, and carbs you eat really matters to make progress. There's a reason why most strength athletes weigh food and track macros. It is also possible to get very strong and be very lean, but will require cycles of bulking to gain muscle and cutting to lose fat. The training needs to compliment this as well (higher reps, lower intensity when cutting/bulking and lower reps, higher intensity when maintaining). Most people don't want to deal with the cutting/bulking aspect and I totally understand that, it's just good to know the option is there.
As I continue my dive down the geopolitical and "macro" rabbit hole, I'm now reading Jared Diamond's Guns, Germs, and Steel, because both Peter Zeihan and Tim Marshall had it listed first in their bibliography or otherwise heavily recommended it. I'm about 120 pages in, and its good, but here's what I've taken away thus far:
All "peaceful" hunter gatherers eventually get genocided by corn fed farm boys with swords and nothing better to do with their time.
An update, as the to-do list is long and the email inbox is getting more and more full, and I'm just not ready to get started yet.
First, I'm now 3 months into this current run at weight training and have not missed a single workout, which is an achievement for me. My body composition is changing for the better--with larger and more defined shoulders, chest, arms, and back--likely due in part to the fact that my current training program emphasizes the squat less (2x/week as opposed to 3x/week) and the presses more (2x/week each as opposed to 1.5x/week), relies upon more "volume" work on all the lifts, and incorporates various accessory exercises like dips, pull-ups, and barbell rows. The aesthetic change is nice, though more importantly I'm still progressing linearly, just more slowly, increasing in strength at 1 lb/week for each of the presses and now just 2lb/week for the squat and deadlift. We will see how much longer I can continue at this rate before I start failing on lifts, at which point I guess I will need to figure out how to incorporate some version of periodization into my program. But I'll deal with that later.
Second, I have to study for another bar exam, which will be a huge pain in the behind and means that I have to put my Great Books reading on hold for a few months. The interwebs say you need about 400 hours of dedicated study time, though my law partners think that's ridiculous and that with 10+ years of law practice under my belt I should just show up and sit for the exam without any preparation at all. I think the sweet spot lies somewhere in the middle, and I'm aiming for about 20 hours/week for abut 15 weeks (300 total hours), though I know that, in reality, with balancing a full time (sort of) job and two kids, I'll be lucky to get in 200 hours of study time before the big day.
Third, the family decided upon our "La Sierra" family fitness milestones, which is sort of an amalgamation between the La Sierra standards for boys and the new Marine Corps PFT standards. It looks like this:
- Pull Ups: 10 for males; 5 for females
- Push Ups: 32 for males; 25 for females
- Dips: 12 for males; 5 for females
- Planks: 1:30 (gender neutral)
- .5 mile run: 3 minutes (gender neutral)
- 1 mile run: 7 minutes (gender neutral)
- 3 mile run: 26 minutes (gender neutral)
I've already checked off the push ups and dips, and I have a while to go on pull ups, though I am now actively training them (I am currently at 5). For planks, the whole family (sans me) knocked them out while watching TV last night. DW picked the 1:30 goalpost, which I tend to think is a little low. FWIW, the Marines max out planks at 3:45, with the minimum being 1:10; so 1:30 isn't much more than the bare minimum. That said, I haven't tried to do the plank yet and so I may be regretting these words. For the runs, we haven't laid out the course yet, but my 10-year old son just ran a 6:20 mile at school (which puts him in second place for his entire school, with 1st place being some freak of nature who has a 5:23 minute mile), so he will be fine. And DW has been a runner for a long time and her 5K time in the past has been at a sub-7 mile, and her best 5K time as a mom has been just above 18 minutes, so she will be able to get to the times with minimal training. (She was sidetracked from running for awhile, first with some small fractures in her foot, and then later from asthma which our move back home to more humid air has alleviated; it's been good for her though because it got her into regularly doing more free YouTube HIIT workouts, which has turned her into an absolute all-around fitness beast, as opposed to just a runner.) My 12-yo daughter is likely the most athletic person in the family, and a star midfielder, so I would think she could probably hit these times currently. Me, on the other hand, may never be able to hit these times; but I will certainly try, and hopefully will one day earn my "red shorts."
Money and other ERE stuff is going fine; not something I really think about much these days with the house paid off, the freezer full of beef and the pantry full of dry food, and the kids' college mostly saved for (well, saved for as much as I'm willing to do it). Savings rate still sits at between 50 and 60%, and I've largely decided that as much as I would love to be a "food producer" on some sort of small, family scale, the most efficient use of my time even from a self-sufficiency and self-reliance standpoint is likely still in building out my legal practice. I'd still like to do some small scale backyard livestock, and to get the garden working in earnest, but for now I just need to focus my energies on building up as resilient a law practice as I can.
I'm currently focused on trying to convince DW that we DON'T need to add an master suite addition to the house; though I am sure my attempts will ultimately be futile. The best I've done is to convince DW that if we are going to build a master addition then we need to sell the Airstream; I thought my proposing that would cause her to re-think wanting the master addition, but I was wrong--she immediately grabbed the camera and started snapping pictures of the Airstream to post it for sale.
DW picked the 1:30 goalpost, which I tend to think is a little low. FWIW, the Marines max out planks at 3:45, with the minimum being 1:10; so 1:30 isn't much more than the bare minimum. That said, I haven't tried to do the plank yet and so I may be regretting these words.
Don't forget the context - 1:10 is the bare minimum plank FOR A MARINE. So 1:30 is better than the Marines strictly require, if I'm understanding what you're saying correctly. "More than the Marines require" is a different way of thinking of 1:30 than "close to the bare minimum"
Many of the military's minimum standards for fitness are very low and can be surpassed without much trouble by someone who trains a few times a week. It's more of a filter to keep out people who are nowhere near in shape. Unfortunately, the state of our society is that the military is having trouble finding people to meet these minimum standards or be eligible for service due to the high rates of obesity and unfit people within the country. If I remember correctly, the minimum standards for Navy Seals are 50 situps within 2 minutes, 50 pushups within 2 minutes, 10 pull ups within 2 minutes, along with some running and swimming with a few minutes rest in between each set. Being able to do the minimums for operators and members within these organizations is not considered to be a strength and is not what separates those within from those on the outside.
Good on you @Hristo and your family for coming up with some family fitness standards. I very much like the concept.
FWIW, here're the La Sierra standards (red, blue, navy) and then the current Marine Corps PFT and Navy PST standards, which our family used as a reference to come up with our own standards. The Marines replaced the sit-ups (crunches, actually) with planks a couple years ago.
The La Sierra "navy" standards are absolutely INSANE. Apparently only a handful of kids in the history of the program ever achieved that milestone.
My body composition is changing for the better--with larger and more defined shoulders, chest, arms, and back--likely due in part to the fact that my current training program emphasizes the squat less (2x/week as opposed to 3x/week) and the presses more (2x/week each as opposed to 1.5x/week), relies upon more "volume" work on all the lifts, and incorporates various accessory exercises like dips, pull-ups, and barbell rows.
Dips + pullups are some of the most beneficial movements for building actual functional strength and bodyweight capability, much more than accessory movements. The closed chain movement is especially beneficial in translating to general bodyweight manipulation with climbing, handbalancing, and generally manipulating your body in relationship to the world. 10 good form pullups (31X1 tempo or something similar with the chest touching the bar at the top) is also a very good goal! Psyched to see when you make that!
