Early Retirement Extreme Forums

The lag for manufacturers is 6-12 months behind the operators. Capacity is still dropping, so GBX's outlook is negative for at least another year. They have orders in the hopper through Q3 2017, so if capacity starts to recover before then, GBX should be one of the best plays in the sector. Their balance sheet looks solid until 2018. They tend to expand through acquisition instead of debt/expansion, and that seems to be helping them here. On the negative side, they need stronger management. Also, some capacity will never come back (like coal) so I don't see a return to boom times, only a moderated recovery. That said, current conservative book value is $30-35 (discounting for deterioration this quarter) so I'm comfortable getting in here.

So is the current market an end-of-the-month runup or, with the news of oil deals, is it the turnaround?

Suicide or murdered?

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/ ... endon-dead

Uh oh, conspiracy. Reminds me of the time when the TOT chief died under "mysterious circumstances".

Obviously a conspiracy!

murdered by ENVIRONMENTALISTS

The only reason I brought it up is that he was just indicted the day before.

dead guys make great scapegoats

CHK stock also jumped a ton yesterday. Lots of odd coincidences.

20% of my bond allocation is now in VWOB. I think this is probably more right than not: https://www.researchaffiliates.com/Asse ... ncome.aspx

Shouldn't this be in the conspiracy thread?

Anyone have any views on HPQ? While PC sales are not so hot, they have a solid P/E and the payout ratio on their dividend is pretty nice. Yield is great. Been paying a long time too.

I bought some more BRK.B some days ago when the PB ratio got near enough to 130%. Buffett has said that his buy back price is 120% but he's probably not going to see that price absent a market crash.

An analysis of tobacco companies for the sinvestors.


bought TNK and a little NNA (probably too early)

Sold some of my oil stocks on the big run up last week. I will look to get back in after the inevitable pull back from that run up, which is already happening.

Sold my stake in HP today as I'm not convinced they can sustain their dividend in the coming years. They had nice steady payments for decade after decade but went crazy with the hikes during the shale boom. It was the second stock I bought when I started last fall and I didn't have my analysis methods worked out like I do now. Made out with a nice 12% gain.

Added PPL instead.

Hmm, I trimmed AVA today because it's been too overpriced for too long for my comfort. PPL is not so overpriced, but... I don't know that now is the right time for entry.

Bought a little XLV.

Oil closes above $40. S&P almost back to even (-0.2%) for the year.

jacob wrote:Oil closes above $40. S&P almost back to even (-0.2%) for the year.

I'm about +10% for the year so far, which is probably why I'm looking at taking profits. A lot of that has come from the CMI, CAT, & AAPL tips.

Yea I am back from being about -10% to about +6% on cost basis now. So looking at about 16% up from the bottom now. ED, PBCT and CAT are my top. ED is a whopping 22% gain. COP still -19%