Early Retirement Extreme Forums

Bankai wrote: ↑

Wed Mar 11, 2020 5:51 am

I think demographics and testing are just two of many reasons why Korea has such a low CFR. Others are:

* It's a very reserved culture, similar to Japanese, so people are unlikely to be very close to one another or touch each other casually.

The other reasons you listed are more or less valid, but this one is laughably off (sorry )
Koreans (and Japanese!) are ALWAYS packed super close to one another. They do not touch each other much... until they go out drinking after work (which happens more than 50% of workdays btw)

Something I've heard about korea in particular: a disproportional amount of cases were linked to that cult, and the cult skewed younger and female (and nondrinking, nonsmoking, etc.)

Update from northern Italy

my dad was sent home and will not be working for 15 days. He's a gynecologist, now working as a consultant as he's technically retired.
The reason they're sending him home is that there are little patients coming in, and they are freeing up any extra space/rooms just in case.
This is actually good because it means that, while the situation is serious, it is nowhere near the "warzone" stories from the hottest areas, otherwise they would have called him in to help.
For perspective, the hospital where my dad works is about 1 h drive from said hottest areas.

den18 wrote: ↑

Wed Mar 11, 2020 12:48 pm

Do we know anything more about coronavirus and surface tempature?

I'll let the pros here speak, but IIRC from my dad, 100C for 5-10 minutes kills pretty much anything

den18 wrote: ↑

Wed Mar 11, 2020 12:48 pm

Do we know anything more about coronavirus and surface tempature?

Cooking at 70C kills it---there was a link a while back. I'm absolutely not ordering delivery. I'm not so worried about the food as the person handling the boxes, etc. it comes in. With groceries, I try to stay away from "open" displays like vegetables. Since we cut shopping to a minimum, most foods get to sit for days before we touch it. Hands are washed after putting it away on the shelves. Ditto mail.

Various times have been reported for how long the virus can survive on surfaces. Anything from a day to several days. It depends on the surface. It has even been detected on the "surface" of a couple of dogs. This is fairly normal. The flu works the same. This is why the "don't touch the face"-rule exists to eliminate the surface->hand->mouth/nose/eye route.

den18 wrote: ↑

Wed Mar 11, 2020 12:48 pm

Any update if the infection spread is coming from person to person contact (or aresols) or contaminated surfaces?

Lots of info in this study...
https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/a ... via%3Dihub

@Jacob - Are you avoiding fresh fruit and vegetables entirely right now? Especially ones that are eaten raw?

Not if they come in a plastic bag or similar, but I am avoiding the produce section where people root through the tomatoes, etc. to find the best one.

In Austria, where I am now, the primary and secondary schools will get closed as per next monday. Uni's and High schools are already on internet mode.
The Prime Minister here says grandparents are not the ones to take care of there grandchilren in this special case!
A dutch friend of us has, after we informed him about the reality of Corona, cancelled his (train) yourney of nine hours tomorrow to us from the Netherlands via Germany. He was only focused on the cross country trips we would make togoether. He was ignorant of what was happening here in Europe and the kind of harm Corona can bring by you as carrier who spreads it (quicker) or you as victim of the virus or you as cause that the hospitals become overloaded.

George the original one wrote: ↑

Tue Mar 10, 2020 3:36 pm

Oregon Health Authority as of 10a Tue, Mar 10
- 15 Positives
- 213 Negatives
- 67 Pending
- 232 Currently Monitoring
- 295 Completed Monitoring or no risk

Cases by County
- 1 Douglas (Roseburg)
- 2 Jackson (Medford)
- 1 Klamath (Klamath Falls)
- 1 Marion (Salem)
- 1 Multnomah (Portland)
- 1 Umatilla (Pendleton)
- 8 Washington (Hillsboro)

Cases by Age Group
- 1 17 or younger
- 1 18-24
- 0 25-34
- 5 35-54
- 8 55-74

Hospitalized Cases
- 6 Yes
- 9 No

Cases Involving International Travel
- 3 Yes
- 12 No

Continuing slow spread, which is about the best that can be expected.

Oregon Health Authority as of 10a Wed, Mar 11
- 19 Positives
- 286 Negatives
- 62 Pending
- 220 Currently Monitoring
- 328 Completed Monitoring or no risk

Cases by County
- 1 Deschutes (Bend)
- 1 Douglas (Roseburg)
- 2 Jackson (Medford)
- 1 Klamath (Klamath Falls)
- 2 Marion (Salem)
- 1 Multnomah (Portland)
- 1 Polk (Dallas)
- 2 Umatilla (Pendleton)
- 8 Washington (Hillsboro)

Cases by Age Group
- 1 17 or younger
- 1 18-24
- 0 25-34
- 6 35-54
- 11 55-74

Hospitalized Cases
- 9 Yes
- 10 No

Cases Involving International Travel
- 3 Yes
- 16 No

@ bankai

I think we should talk about definitions. CFR is the case fatality rate. If you catch the virus, what are the odds it will be fatal.

This is entirely independent of what one's odds if catching the virus are. So society differences that may affect infection rate are independent of CFR rate.

Because it takes less time to die from the virus than to recover, fatality rates start high. Right now, Italy is at 6.6%. China is at 4.9% and dropping. The estimate that CFR is 1-2% has always rested on the idea that there are many, many infections that aren't tested.

With a virus as contagious as Covad-19, that's a solid assumption. But by the same token, it also makes clear how much nastier than seasonal flu this is, as well.

2020 is a good time to be young and healthy. In 2021, we will on average be younger and healthier. If one is not young and healthy, now is the time to address this if one wants to see 2021.

jacob wrote: ↑

Wed Mar 11, 2020 1:55 pm

With groceries, I try to stay away from "open" displays like vegetables. Since we cut shopping to a minimum, most foods get to sit for days before we touch it. Hands are washed after putting it away on the shelves.

Does it ever make sense to get groceries delivered? If Covid-19 incidence in the community is very low, then it is worth the risk to shop oneself and control the process entirely. If a critical mass of humans gets infected, then the risk is too great and eating down the stockpile while self-isolating becomes the rational decision. Is there an in-between point where the risk of going out is too great, but risks associated with delivery (contamination of food and packaging) are sufficiently low or can be mitigated such that delivery becomes the optimal strategy?

Population density is also a consideration, and might be more important than the infection rate.

Denmark officially switches strategy from containment to damage control. Closes all public school on Monday but recommend children stay at home starting tomorrow if possible. Hoping that university, etc. students do the same. All non-critical government workers have been sent home as of now. Recommends all private companies do the same where possible. All libraries, clubs, etc. are closed. Advises people not use public transportation. Train tickets are being refunded. Gov acknowledges that this may cost jobs. Legislation in progress to ban public meetings of more than 100 people by next week. First major hospital cancels all scheduled non-acute operations to prepare space for incoming corona patients. Projected case rates including number of fatalities (~0.1% of population) are made public albeit on the optimistic side.

Missing measures: There are as far as I can tell no constraints or checkpoints on travel yet.

Notable: Yesterday, a plane from Northern Italy landed in Copenhagen and 500 passengers apparently walked off without being checked. As of now all 442 cases can still be traced to travel or "one degree of separation from someone who traveled", so technically no community transmission.

Yes, Milan is doing an excellent job of seeding the world. Seventeen flights from there to the UK on Sunday, also not screened.

Italian prime minister announcing now on TV that every commercial outlet except for supermarkets, pharmacies are to be shut down.
So basically all shops, bars, restaurants, etc are shut down.
All companies encouraged to put as many workers as possible on smart working

@Fish - The current CDC recommendation for people over 60 or otherwise compromised(*) get their groceries delivered, so that's likely the lowest-risk strategy. Especially if the delivery is "quarantined" for a day or two insofar one wants to be rather very sure.

Alternatively, my strategy is to go as rarely as possible to minimize exposure time and go during off-hours so as to avoid the crowd.

(*) The CDC does not mention diabetes as an overdeath factor though China does. China does not mention obesity (perhaps it's numerically less relevant in China which has an obesity rate of 6%) though Osterholm does for the US (42%+ are obese).

Add: Some changes will have to be made eventually as more people opt for home delivery. After locking down, the biggest Danish online supermarket reported that they're not able to deliver tomorrow---all delivery times are fully booked. People are encouraged not to hoard to prevent supply shocks.

The Trump administration is laying the groundwork for blame. National security adviser O'Brien says China covered up COVID-19, thus response was delayed. This message reinforces Mike Pompeo's message on Friday that China put the US behind the curve.
https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/politics ... r-BB113h5X.

As we know, this is a BS excuse because this thread began on Nov 22 and the US didn't do a damn thing until travel restrictions on Feb 29.

bigato wrote: ↑

Wed Mar 11, 2020 4:13 pm

Last week I though this week would be when people would start panicking, but I guess that because the virus won't be deadly for most of the population, the only ones that can panick so far are those who understand some math and are able to think about second order effects. I should have learned by now that this is a very small minority, but yet often I still catch myself counting on people being minimally rational.

The link between panic and rationality seems hazy at best. Perhaps it is rational to prepare but this does not equate to panic. Assuming preparation is being taken care of, the most rational strategy seems to be minimizing panic or the expression of it. Dealing with the second order effects of the virus is hard enough but also dealing with the second order effects of people panicking is very difficult. People can panic from other people panicking without understanding the math.

@Seppia - How rigorously do you think this be enforced ? Can/will Rome assert its authority down south over local mafia businesses and the like ?

I'm still hoping, probably naively, there is a chance this might bring the world together in a common cause.

Also wrt panic, I wonder what kind of world some people live in when they see buying 24 extra rolls of toilet paper or being unwilling to hug as "panic"?! Real panic is when people break down doors and windows, fight each other over stuff, or drive their cars into barricades, and so on. The kind of behavior normally only seen at the entrance of Walmart during Black Friday where people literally trample-murder each other in order to be the first consumer inside the door who gets a 60" flatscreen TV for $59. So far, there's been none of that.

I've been told by family members that me telling them to be prepared to be at home for an extended period of time and to avoid large crowds is "going into a bunker and preparing for Armageddon."