Survival

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ffj
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Re: Survival

Post by ffj »

@Sclass
Thanks for sharing. I have some thoughts but I wasn't there or have ever visited but I am familiar with fire events. Even though I am not an expert and I wasn't there, remarkably I still have opinions. ;)

I think what is important to remember is that this was a wind-driven event, which you have alluded to already. The fire was almost secondary to the wind. Once this fire reached a certain size, the game was over. Every firefighter has been to "the big one" where the only reason the fire went out is because the fire exhausted the fuel, there was nothing left to burn. The only thing you can do at that point is try to save exposures, buildings on the periphery. That is probably why the FD repositioned and seemingly abandoned certain parts of the city. These homes (most) on the forward edge were going to burn regardless of what they did or did not do.

I say this to assure you that your home was probably lost well before any fire reached it, and if you had been there not only would your house still have burned but you could have died too. I can't say that with dead certainty, but most likely. If a trained fire dept. with PPE and trucks capable of flowing thousands of gallons per minute couldn't get it done than you standing there in 80mph winds with a garden hose in your hand with no respiratory or thermal protection is unlikely to have ended well. Assuming you would have had water anyway or enough pressure to actually flow with effectiveness.

That is the other issue. Assuming the empty reservoir had been full the fire dept. would still have had empty hydrants because every section of the water grid was being robbed because of the extent of the fire. There is only so much capacity and with a modern fire engine capable of flowing 1,500 gallons per minute at static ( they can flow much more) it doesn't take long to exhaust water reserves or the capability of the system to deliver enough water regardless of reserve. I don't know if most people are fully aware of water capacity in their city.

There's reports the initial response took 25 minutes which allowed the fire to grow. Who knows if totally true but that could have been a game changer if the FD could have gotten to it while small. Something to note if the truth ever becomes clear. The calls for pre-staging seem completely legit on this one.

Also, it appears most homes that burned had vegetation next to the house and vents in the eaves that allowed wind driven embers into the house to start a fire. Or they were so close to another burning home the thermal radiation ignited other structures. And the palm trees were virtual torches that spread embers everywhere. The homes that survived seem to have been either lucky, such as the two houses that were protected by the first home on your street or they had features that kept the embers from trapping against the house and igniting their homes. I would love to know your thoughts on these internet observations.

7Wannabe5
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Re: Survival

Post by 7Wannabe5 »

So sorry for your loss :( The son of my mother's visiting nurse also lost his house in Altadena. One thing that is going to become increasingly obvious as the polycrises develop is that wherever we choose to locate ourselves or our households, the increasingly interconnected world we live in doesn't allow for very much true isolation from down-chain effects. Yet, it seems that we are also suffering from an epidemic of loneliness due to social isolation. Stuff keeps changing and we don't quite know how to rearrange ourselves.

As problems and maintenance costs increase, it might make most sense to run ourselves through Maslow's hierarchy more frequently and flexibly. You're a lucky man because you've got some money, some serious skillz*, and a good woman and some smart friends (or maybe a smart woman and some good friends.) Do any of us still have what it takes to rebuild from scratch tomorrow?

ETA: I guess my perspective/practice on the frog in boiling water is more towards focusing on keeping full range of "hopping" capabilities in place rather than relying on your current high ground spot in overall topography. One of the best climate catastrophe novels I've read featured a protagonist who kept herself on high ground for 25 years by choosing to work for an oil company (allying herself with the powers that be), but still eventually found herself in the boiling water with the other frogs.

*It seems like skillz are one thing you can't lose, but not so. For example, my ex who lost the use of his dominant hand in a motorcycle crash. Also, there are some aspects of cognitive decline, such as loss of speed in mathematical processing, which occur within our awareness.

sky
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Re: Survival

Post by sky »

As this neighborhood rebuilds, the value of your lot will likely increase by quite a bit. In about 5 years or so, your lot may be worth close to what the house is worth now.

Scott 2
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Re: Survival

Post by Scott 2 »

Given the home was prepped to sell, being treated as an investment, is it possible to recoup some of the destruction as a capital loss?

Sorry for the loss. Glad the home was unoccupied. A couple years earlier could have been much different.

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Sclass
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Re: Survival

Post by Sclass »

Well I have to agree many communities are in danger. My favorite Feynman quote is “the experiment is always right.” I currently live in the shadow of the Cleveland national forest and when the winds kicked up yesterday I got pretty worried. I could get hit again very soon. It is well within the realm of possibility.

We live with threats like this. Paleo seismics indicate the inevitably of a major quake in California. Also Missouri, Kentucky, Tennessee and southern Illinois will inevitably be hit with a major quake from the New Madrid fault. It doesn’t take much science to convince me of that certainty. But when? Any minute now.

I watched Paradise CA burn on TV. It didn’t take much for me to generalize to Altadena. It’s not like I was keeping this house because I wanted to. I have only obtained full ownership as of December. I was looking to sell it off quick. Not quick enough. It will be a capital loss. Fire was always on my mind but I never imagined a fire so bad that the dirt below the house would be temporarily worthless.

Yeah and the epa is on site checking for hazardous waste. I know my place is bad because we had our home inspection a day before the fire. Lots of asbestos building materials. Likely all scattered by the fire. Our area is still closed. It is open for escorted trips according to my next door neighbor but you cannot spend the night. After the inspection phase 2 will be scraping. LA county public works says they’ll do this in 12-24 months. I’m in for at least another year. Or more.

Apparently the city is handing out tyvek suits and masks to people who want to dig around their ruins. I don’t have any particular reason to go up there given the home was empty. I can’t wait till they scrape the place.

We need some kind of controlled burn program. I don’t think we can afford to have much “defensible space” between our buildings. This and the insurance costs are kind of an existential threat to city living. As I drove back from breakfast and looked at the fields of houses along our hillside I realized this whole thing is designed to fail. It’ll fall like dominoes under the right conditions. I currently rent my residence and I don’t plan on owning in SoCal after experiencing this. But I never really did want to own a home ever. I was kind of forced into this property in Altadena. It was my parents’s dream not mine.

chenda
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Re: Survival

Post by chenda »

Sclass wrote:
Tue Jan 21, 2025 2:13 pm
I have only obtained full ownership as of December.
If it had still been part of your parents estate would the estate been entitled to FEMA compensation ? Is it worth seeing if there is any legal argument that it wasn't a second home in any meaningful sense?

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Sclass
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Re: Survival

Post by Sclass »

@chenda

I don’t know. My parents are dead. I wiped them off the title. I talked to FEMA and they said I’m just a property investor from their point of view. And you know what? They’re right. I am not a victim. I’m like a guy holding a gazillion shares of Pets.com when it went to zero.

There are people up there who need the FEMA money. I’m the last guy who needs it.

As I said thanks to ERE I am good. Just like I was before the fire. Really not much has changed but I feel like I lost my wallet full of money in a seat at the cinema. I’ll live. I’m just missing a house in a disaster zone. The more I process this im more worried about paying for the cleanup process for no real gain.

Yeah it’s painful that I’ve been in a ten year wrestling match with my late father over the property and now poof it has gone up in smoke. But hey, that’s not so bad in the wider scheme of things.

My family and step family are laughing at me on social media from what I’ve heard. But even that doesn’t really change much.

7Wannabe5
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Re: Survival

Post by 7Wannabe5 »

SClass wrote:We need some kind of controlled burn program. I don’t think we can afford to have much “defensible space” between our buildings. This and the insurance costs are kind of an existential threat to city living. As I drove back from breakfast and looked at the fields of houses along our hillside I realized this whole thing is designed to fail. It’ll fall like dominoes under the right conditions.
Yes, but it is also the case that choices that might serve to inhibit fire will tend towards increasing the possibility or damage from flooding. The ancient environmental battle is between the grasses and the trees and our much more recent contribution of concrete only adds to the chaos in the form of a sort of rock, paper, scissors game which we seek to control but can't. Especially given that concrete production is fairly huge component of CO2 emissions and hugely contributive to making cities much hotter on average than surrounding countryside. As CO2 levels increase the likelihood of extreme weather events of all types, it becomes increasingly difficult to know whether your region is more at risk of flood in rainy season or more at risk of fire in dry season.

Psychologically, humans prefer a landscape of mixed boundary trees and grasses with occasional punch of color indicative of flower/fruit, the presence of a wall or mountain at our back, a clear long vista in front of us leading to an attractive focal point, the sound and presence of moving water, and a central fire/hearth within very close control. Everywhere we go, we attempt to replicate this. Sometimes this attempt to meet our psychological needs actually makes us safer, but sometimes it doesn't. It's hard to imagine not turning towards less investment in permanent structures as variability increases our risk. Maybe you could turn your lot into site of the first mobile upscale bermed and swaled tiny home community in the redevelopment.

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Ego
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Re: Survival

Post by Ego »

Ah, Sclass, I am so sorry to hear about your home. I also love the fact that you brush off the ashes, take a look at it from a financial perspective and say, "Meh, I am ERE so no big deal."

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Sclass
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Re: Survival

Post by Sclass »

Well, that’s what I’m telling myself so I don’t go crazy. :lol:

At the end of the day I was planning on just investing the money away to make…more money. The thought of it all is kind of absurd. I’m actually pretty happy where I am.

Frita
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Re: Survival

Post by Frita »

Hearing the news, SClass, I feel sad how this has played out after years of battle as it touchs on justice. It sounds like you have mixed thoughts and emotions right now, which is totally understandable, and are looking at the situation through different perspectives.

I hear that your family and step-families are not reaching out in support and are reportingly up to shenanigans on social media. That sucks. As you know, that’s on them and is of no indication of your worth.

mathiverse
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Re: Survival

Post by mathiverse »

I'm sorry to hear about this, Sclass. That's really rough after your long, arduous journey related to that property. It is neat how you are insulated from the large financial loss due to being ERE. Congrats on being well positioned to weather this.

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Sclass
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Re: Survival

Post by Sclass »

I’ve been thinking of “survival”. It would have been really neat having an automated sprinkler system outside the house.

I’ve seen some nice ones online that people have built for fire suppression.

My dream system would have pumps and tanks in case the muni water failed. Also cameras and a cellular/star link to sustain a connection. The first thing to go was our broadband. Long before the flames came the power and telecom got taken out by the wind. When the webcams went out I had no idea it was the last time I’d see the house.

I’d need automation. But that’s my specialty. I could build an awesome electronic control system to run the whole thing when it sensed a rapid rise in temperature on the surface of the house.

It’s fun to dream. I’m having this psychosis where I fantasize about how I could save it. This is really hard on my brain. It’s gone already. And even if I did save it I’d be the single house in the town that looks like a bomb hit it. My lucky neighbors with standing structures are not too much better off. It’s like having a single building standing in the middle of a war zone. My agent said nobody will be moving in till schools are built. No matter how I look at it I'm sunk. Even if I had rebuilding $$$ from a home owners policy it is going to be a long process to rebuild the community to the point I could cash out. Basically I am afraid it’s one big loss in the near term. There aren’t many ways around that. Dang it. :x

Without a Time Machine I think ERE is the only thing that saves me. I live/rent far away from the disaster zone on a small withdrawal rate. The old home was an expensive possession. But that isn’t something that I need to sustain my SWR. It was just a giant playhouse for my dad. And it was a gift that I destroyed. So yeah I guess it’s ERE for the win. Don’t own a bunch of expensive things unless they pay you. Worse don’t own things that own you. Have some investments throwing off income. Live simply and be satisfied with the basics. Have enough liquid assets so you can just pick up and start over someplace else with ikea furniture. I had Dahl and basmati rice tonight and it was great. I’ll finish with a big glass of my favorite beverage - water. Then off to sleep on my patched bedsheets.

ertyu
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Re: Survival

Post by ertyu »

@Sclass have you been in a weather event? Hurricane flood fire whatever. I was in a flood once, a tame one. The rain was torrential without even that much wind. Anyway, the first floor of the house I lived in at the time started flooding. Water never got past ankle level, but it was still enough to impress on me, in the moment when i was standing on the stairs watching it come in, that there's nothing you can do. It was my reaction, even: I turned around to my friend who was with me, and the first thing I said was, "there is nothing you can do, is there." My friend, a native of the region who's been through this before, just said, "Nope."

Imo your brain is going in circles because (1) you weren't there, and (2) you're used to being in control. If you had been there, like i was in that flood, the moment where your brain tries and tries to compute it but can't comes in faster because there's immediate verification from the surrounding environment. Reality pretty much immediately crushes all the "maybe i could have saved it"-s.

Anyway, the reason why im saying this is that i think it's relevant to the "survival" theme in general. Key to survival is accepting where there's nothing we can do. It's only then we can begin to respond to "the predicament" instead of trying to terror-management-theory ourselves into minimizing, negotiation, and other such gimmicks to try and retain the feeling of control in a situation where we really truly have none.

jacob
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Re: Survival

Post by jacob »

ertyu wrote:
Sat Jan 25, 2025 6:45 am
Anyway, the reason why im saying this is that i think it's relevant to the "survival" theme in general. Key to survival is accepting where there's nothing we can do. It's only then we can begin to respond to "the predicament" instead of trying to terror-management-theory ourselves into minimizing, negotiation, and other such gimmicks to try and retain the feeling of control in a situation where we really truly have none.
https://www.amazon.com/Deep-Survival-St ... B007CGU884 is a classic in terms of the psychology of survival. The strongest determinant for who makes it out alive is a sense of personal control (agency). It's also important to not freak out and face reality as it is. The ability && willingness to break with convention/rules/tradition also helps. Believing that there's something you can do and being willing to act on that belief is the most important thing for these situations. IOW, high agency, low anxiety, and open-minded/nonconformity traits increase the probability of survival.

Conspicuously missing from this list of findings is knowledge of wilderness skills (like how to start a fire, skin a deer, ... and so on). These turn out to be less important than the person's personality.

7Wannabe5
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Re: Survival

Post by 7Wannabe5 »

ertyu wrote:Anyway, the reason why im saying this is that i think it's relevant to the "survival" theme in general. Key to survival is accepting where there's nothing we can do. It's only then we can begin to respond to "the predicament" instead of trying to terror-management-theory ourselves into minimizing, negotiation, and other such gimmicks to try and retain the feeling of control in a situation where we really truly have none.
As in any other relationship, we don't have control, but we can have values, standards, and boundaries. We can also look for the most appropriate lever towards positive influence and engagement rather than negative control or repression. However, it is true that there is no appropriate means by which to boundary or protect and provide in relationship to ghosts of the past and/or dreams of the future if not present in our purpose of the moment.
jacob wrote: IOW, high agency, low anxiety, and open-minded/nonconformity traits increase the probability of survival.
Absolutely, and I would add social intuition and fluidity to the list. For example, being fluid in the lead vs follow, and being quickly able to assess competence in others within the changing situation; as in "your boss" is no longer "your boss" if somebody is shooting up the office, unless they are, but maybe it's the janitor or the receptionist. My experience in emergency situations has informed me that the roles and behaviors I engage have been very contextual. Humans have to be trained to behaviors outside of the instinctive, and this training may not always be of benefit in a survival situation. For example, when rehearsing school lock-down situation, when students are allowed some leeway, they often make smarter in the moment choices.

Also, high levels of testosterone are associated with high risk behavior in emergency situations, because increases overall survival/transmission of genetic material. Human females are quite often hard-wired to scream for assistance in saving their offspring, so if you are heroically inclined, you may want to pre-boundary whether you are willing to run back into a burning building to save old woman's cat vs. young woman's child, etc. If an old man's money is burning, nobody cares, because it's not good for the health of the village for old men to be able to afford too many young wives. The aging prostitute* is generally the happiest human in the village, because the most resilient in the face of disaster or day-to-day strife. If her hut burns down, there's bound to be a few men around motivated to contributing to building her a new one.

*Label affixed by Victorian anthropologists.
Last edited by 7Wannabe5 on Sat Jan 25, 2025 8:53 am, edited 1 time in total.

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Sclass
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Re: Survival

Post by Sclass »

ertyu wrote:
Sat Jan 25, 2025 6:45 am
@Sclass have you been in a weather event? Hurricane flood fire whatever.
No.

ETA not to mention I haven’t even been up to see the place since the event. I’m just going off photos that are being sent. Some network news clips of news clips actually caught a glimpse of my property from the air. There is indeed some detachment from reality here on the other side of SoCal. As I said fantasy. It’s gone. Time Machine is only working option now.

@7w
The aging prostitute* is generally the happiest human in the village
Whoa whoa, what? Is this some theory your read in one of your rare old books or real data? I’ve known two IRL. Both were very unhappy. They were extremely vulnerable as their value as sex workers declined. Sorry to change the subject but this jumped out at me.

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Re: Survival

Post by jacob »

7Wannabe5 wrote:
Sat Jan 25, 2025 7:55 am
Absolutely, and I would add social intuition and fluidity to the list. For example, being fluid in the lead vs follow, and being quickly able to assess competence in others within the changing situation; as in "your boss" is no longer "your boss" if somebody is shooting up the office, unless they are, but maybe it's the janitor or the receptionist. My experience in emergency situations has informed me that the roles and behaviors I engage have been very contextual. Humans have to be trained to behaviors outside of the instinctive, and this training may not always be of benefit in a survival situation. For example, when rehearsing school lock-down situation, when students are allowed some leeway, they often make smarter in the moment choices.
I've been in two situations involving sinking/crashing yachts (one involving calling in the coast guard). I've also taken part in a spontaneous rescue with our boat pulling another boat off of the breakwater rocks. Certainly, the crew was self-selected/selected by the skipper for certain personality traits. Unlike in the movies(&) or dramatized survivor shows, I remember everybody being much calmer than the situation warranted in retrospect (one of the three situations could definitely have resulted in lives lost. People were in the water. However, it's only much later that one starts thinking about that...). There was no instances of people shutting down or being in denial about the situation as it happened. There was also no debates or arguing about what we or anyway should do. Instead people who knew what to do immediately set about it and those who didn't immediately asked what they could do to help.

(*) The common trope being the "hysterical housewife who runs out the front door and opens it up to the zombie invasion" or the "arrogant jock who breaks down into a useless heap muttering how "this is not happening to me"". Real people do better than that.

One might say that competence based leadership was instinctual. Also on a boat, the skipper is almost always the most competent, so there was no conflict. Certainly both cases had 1 or 2 crew members expressing more concern than others, but I suspect they were calmed by the fact that the people around them were calm and actively working on saving the ship.

I noted above that skills matter less, but I do think skill matters somewhat in that skill both gives you something to do and enough knowledge to prioritize your actions, IOW, a sense of agency and objectivity. Similarly, past experience puts situations in context and thereby helps to reduce anxiety. This is why realistic training is worth the controlled risk in my opinion. When I was a kid, I was told that the reason my school didn't do fire drills was that the admins had computed that a drill would result in two (oddly specific number) sprained ankles, so they figured it was better not to drill at all. Later I've been in other drills following a pre-announced format: "This day and that hour the fire alarm will go off and you're supposed to walk over there and wait for the designated fire drill coordinator". After a few times of wasting 30 minutes standing around with coworkers while some fuddy-duddy in an orange vest messed around with a binder and checked off some boxes, many just stopped showing up. I consider that anti-training! In contrast, yacht racing really took us through a series of small disasters which prepared us mentally for dealing with the two big ones. I believe that in order for training to work, it also has to raise the stakes above trivial or non-existent consequences and it has to allow for unplanned situations so that people get in the habit of not following rules or conventions when those no longer apply.

sky
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Re: Survival

Post by sky »

Sometimes a loss opens up an opportunity. The sooner you can shift from thinking about what you lost to thinking about managing your new "investment", the sooner you will heal from this trauma.

For example:
"I now own a city lot in Southern California, a highly desirable region. My first goal is to get the authorities to level the site and to remediate any environmental concerns. Once that is completed, I will hold the investment until I see new construction in the area. My holding cost will be low because property taxes are low and no utility payments are required. Hopefully, others will buy multiple lots and build high value homes in the area of my lot, which will increase the property value. I will wait until the area becomes a desirable area for new home construction, then sell to cash out."

I lost a business to fire in 1999, and was able to avoid bankruptcy, but it took all my personal resources to pay off creditors. I literally started again at 0. It took 6 months to a year to mentally recover, but now when I look back now, I see it as a personal challenge that I overcame, and as an accomplishment.

7Wannabe5
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Re: Survival

Post by 7Wannabe5 »

jacob wrote:(*) The common trope being the "hysterical housewife who runs out the front door and opens it up to the zombie invasion" or the "arrogant jock who breaks down into a useless heap muttering how "this is not happening to me"". Real people do better than that.
The situations you described were already structured for success in such an event. I have witnessed variations on both of these tropes in unexpected situations. The "hysterical housewife" is just a cultural stereotype of anxious dependent type and the "arrogant jock" is just a cultural stereotype of anxious controlling type. The common denominators is "anxious" rather than "calm" and "reactive" rather than "responsive" so these types can sometimes flip behavior on a dime. For example, the sort of human who "over-packs" is usually towards "anxious controlling" and will be rummaging about in his baggage looking for his previously conceived solution rather than responding appropriately in the moment. One of the reasons why women are attracted to men who exude calm confidence is that anxious women and children are significant liabilities, but an anxious or easily angered man can be straight-up dangerous in his reactivity. For simple example that I'm sure that many women on this forum have experienced similar on some occasion, the time my ex flipped out in road rage and pursued a guy driving a truck with a gun rack with me in the passenger seat. Opposite example being the occasion when my African-American date and I were followed by 3 men making rude, racist commentary, and he just kept calm quiet hold of my arm until we were seated at the restaurant we were approaching. He also just laughed on the occasion I was helping him install an air conditioner in his second floor bedroom window and it bounced on the roof and fell to the ground. It has been my experience that men who grow up in the projects or similarly rough situations and make their way out/up are usually very calm in emergency, conflict, or just shit happens situations. Affluent, suburban-raised, corporate mid-manager azz-kissing types, not so much, but with large variation and the almost infinite human potential for personal growth.

One occasion when it was my immediate instinct to run screaming along with a few other women was when a drunk friend of a friend starting wildly throwing and breaking glass bottles in the room where we were having a party. Another time when I had the screaming instinct, but sort of swallowed it down into being as charming and persuasive as possible, was when one of my children was seriously injured and needed immediate emergency surgery. Generally, I err on the side of over-confident under-packer, but I am aware of this tendency towards rational acceptance of range of outcomes. I can usually fall asleep even if I think it is likely that I pitched camp to close to the alligators. I just think, "If that's the way I'm going to go, so be it." or "The sun will come up tomorrow, and I will make a new plan." etc. etc.

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