Investments Trade Log

[Chad]

Just added a small position in SDRL back to my portfolio. Probably the first of a few more, as the oil price will probably fall some more. But, I didn't want to miss this level if the price didn't continue down. I will just add more positions in SDRL if it continues down.

[jennypenny]

I haven't bought much. I bought one thing related to the VIX, but that's it. Still sitting on that, but adjusting stop losses along the way. (I know I said I don't use them, and normally I don't, but VIX stuff is volatile and I don't want to get caught with my eyes off the ball.)

I have all of our 2015 money for the retirement accounts just sitting in money market accounts. It's killing me, but I don't want to buy funds yet in case there's a correction. OTOH, if the market goes up 15% by the fall and then corrects downward by 10%, I still lose out.

[Dragline]

I bought some more IBM at the beginning of the month. But it had nothing to do with Buffet!

[Chad]

I thought this would crash oil.

http://www.reuters.com/article/2015/04/ ... HH20150402

I guess not.

[jennypenny]

Bought back into NLY. Big discount to book (even if it's lower).

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I saw this comment on SA regarding the latest FMOC minutes and what they mean ...

What it all means is that the Fed is going to be running your portfolio for longer than you thought....And that they don't have a clue yet, because their big plan is not working the way they thought it would.

Pretty much sums it up.

[Dragline]

I bought some more IBM at the beginning of April and plan to buy some more and the beginning of May and June and then will be done buying it.

Yeah, I'd be kind of surprised if they raised rates this year at this point, but you never know. Nobody wants a repeat of 1937.

[Dave]

Sold position in IEMG and bought JBSS at the beginning of April.

The investment in JBSS was not based on any particular expectations of Q3 (JBSS is 06/30 year end), but results were strong. Planning to hold JBSS for several years unless it gets wildly overvalued.

[BlueNote]

Bought DEO (Diageo) and JNJ recently. Prior to that I was buying XOM and BBL, which I think will do fine in the long term but who knows how it will go in the next few years with oil and commodities prices.


Currently researching Parker Hannfin, interesting company which I am considering.

It's extremely difficult to find bargains in the types of investments I like right now. Bonds appear to be a terrible investment and the valuations of most of the blue chips I like are pretty high. I just keep building up cash and scouring the stock market. I am a Canadian so my returns over the last few years look extra rosy due to the decline in value of the CDN dollar vs USD. However this sucks for me because I am a buyer and I won't likely sell any holdings unless the underlying business engine is in jeopardy or they cut / eliminate the dividend. I would sell a holding if it got near twice what I think it's intrinsic value was.

[Chad]

Made 15% on GREK. I'm selling it since the Greeks appear to be robbing Peter to pay Paul.

http://www.reuters.com/article/2015/05/ ... 0I20150512

Still like it long-term, but the downside risk has gotten bigger. If that comes to pass, it will be another buying opportunity.

Updated: Kind of glad the limit order I put in yesterday never got filled, as GREK is up over 2% right now. Better lucky than good.

[MarginVariation]

Hi,

Usually I keep most of my money in VTI, but I recently took a lot of money out of that fund as I think the US stock market is high now. I have $400K total to invest. $154K is in cash. $109K is in oil (USO, BP, PSX). $51K is in bonds (TFI, VGSH). $11K is in international ETF (IXUS). $71K is in US stocks (VTI, AMZN, T). I have a mortgage of $200K at 3.125%.

I must admit that I know very little about investing. All of my good luck with VTI in the past was just because I invested during a bull market. Now that I think the S&P 500 is high, I am trying to diversify. I really think that I made a mistake buying so much oil. I thought it was a good price, but then it just kept going down and down. I once heard that you should never try to catch a falling star. I fell for this mistake and I'm down about 25% in my oil investments!!

Please help! Any advise is appreciated. How can I diversify my portfolio?

Thank you!

I actually started to pull 30% of my portfolio into cash. No real basis just sentiment thinking yields will shoot up, equities down, bonds down.

Anyone else selling portions of their portfolio in cash "waiting"?

What do you plan to do with the 154k?

[Chad]

I probably have 20% of my portfolio in cash. This isn't from selling because of an expected crash. It's just how my portfolio fluctuates. For instance, I finally sold my Greece ETF (GREK), as I could make a nice profit and the level of risk was getting rather high. I'm not selling my oil stock purchases even though some of them are up really high, as they are long-term investments. I will be slowly allocating this cash to new investments going forward, such as SDRL if the Transocean mess knocks it back down near $10. It would be nice to see a normal healthy 10% correction, but it's not something I'm trying to time right now.

[jennypenny]

I haven't bought anything. All month, I've fought the urge to sell in May and go away. At least the month is ending tomorrow and I can stop torturing myself.

[MarginVariation]

I probably have 20% of my portfolio in cash. This isn't from selling because of an expected crash. It's just how my portfolio fluctuates. For instance, I finally sold my Greece ETF (GREK), as I could make a nice profit and the level of risk was getting rather high. I'm not selling my oil stock purchases even though some of them are up really high, as they are long-term investments. I will be slowly allocating this cash to new investments going forward, such as SDRL if the Transocean mess knocks it back down near $10. It would be nice to see a normal healthy 10% correction, but it's not something I'm trying to time right now.

Interesting . The FIRE community elsewhere advocates indexing and buy&hold approach. Hoarding cash and waiting for a downturn as it relates to market timing is frowned upon.

Do you index a large portion and have these discretionary bets on the side?

[Chad]

@MarginVariation
I do use indexes, but I use them slightly different than the normal "buy'n hold dollar cost averaging" approach. I'm very contrarian. I generally buy stuff that is out of favor (preferably very out of favor) and sell most of it when it appears to be overvalued. Though, I do keep a portion of my portfolio, roughly 30-40% depending on how confident I am of what is going on, diversified in buy'n hold investments mostly made up of indexes.

What I do not buy at all is total market indexes. I like breaking my indexes out into industrial sectors, countries, value/growth styles, and company size, as it allows me to overweight whatever is undervalued at that point in time.

[Cornerman]

How do you determine if something is undervalued ? I am trying to find a nice method for that.

[bad_LNIP]

It is easy with closed end funds. Just compare the market price vs NAV

[Dave]

Bought CBI in very early May. CBI seemed extremely undervalued to me from a valuation standpoint. The stock had fallen for a few reasons. One item mentioned was oil prices falling, but oil prices are somewhat immaterial to their business. The questions regarding their accounting didn't seem like a real issue to me, just an overreaction to misunderstood accounting. And the liability surrounding the uncertain contract didn't seem to justify the price drop.

A vote of confidence from #1 and #2 shareholders Berkshire and Greenlight Capital at price points >= mine never hurts either. I would not purely tailcoat off other investors, but when I saw these two listed as top shareholders it was certainly reassuring.

[anomie]

"Chinese stock market has lost £1.5 trillion in the last three weeks"
http://www.independent.co.uk/news/busin ... 64066.html



Anyone know how to buy an index fund/ etf of the Chinese government or Chinese economy, on the expectation this will go up?



ps. htf do you stay logged in to this forum? is kicking me out/ have to log in all the time recently....?

[Scrubby]

You'll get a different perspective if you look at the 5 year graph: http://finance.yahoo.com/echarts?s=0000 ... ng%22:true}

Sorry, but the url tag does not seem to work.

[anomie]

@Scrubby - Thank you for the reality check. That is quite the run-up in that past 18 months...







"The SSE Composite Index (Chinese: 上海证券交易所综合股价指, 简称上证综指) is a stock market index of all stocks (A shares and B shares) that are traded at the Shanghai Stock Exchange."

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/SSE_Composite_Index