Investments Trade Log

[5to9]

Without a doubt, MSFT earned some of that drop. I just think a nearly 20% drop is an over reaction.

[Dragline]

I bought some more IBM yesterday. Planning to buy some more each month for the next few months.

[Chad]

Without a doubt, MSFT earned some of that drop. I just think a nearly 20% drop is an over reaction.

It probably is. A lot of people are probably unhappy with them giving away Windows 10 and the Office for a year, but this is just a way to get people moving towards the subscription model. As long as they are able to monetize that software in a year and the new CEO continues to undue all the mistakes Ballmer made, while moving forward, MSFT should be ok.

[George the original one]

OHI is doing a public offering. If Mr. Market overreacts Wed-Thur and discounts the share price enough (I'd want about -5% from today's closing price*), this could be an entry point for people desiring a dividend growth REIT.

(*) Yeah, I'm probably being greedy.

[Chad]

I hesitate to do it, as I'm not the greatest trader, but now seems like a good time to unload some of my oil plays for a nice little profit. Then buy them back in a week or two at lower prices. Anyone else thinking about this?

[jennypenny]

I sold off most of the oil plays and took the profits. Bird in the hand.

I also dumped NLY. I bought into MORL with that money.

I think I'm going to get out of that PIMCO fund I'm in.

[Chad]

I'm not worried about losing money, as a year or two from now these stocks will be up a lot. I'm worried about missing an opportunity to make some money and then re-buy at a lower price. So, I have held off, as the risk of less is probably increased by selling now and trying to time the market on the short-term.

[George the original one]

Ah, but you DID call it!

[Chad]

Hopefully, it wasn't all luck!

[Chad]

And, now oil probably goes back down as the soft future analysis...

Oil prices received a boost on Monday after a monthly report by the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) raised the forecast for 2015 demand for its oil to 29.2 million barrels per day (bpd), up 430,000 bpd from an earlier forecast.

...is displaced by current harder numbers?

U.S. crude snapped three days of gains after a preliminary survey showed that U.S. commercial crude stockpiles likely hit a record high last week.

http://finance.yahoo.com/news/brent-cru ... 40525.html

[Chad]

Sold all my SDRL today at $13.63 for a solid profit. Hopefully, I can buy back in near $10-11. I may sell my CVX and BP after the upcoming ex-dividend dates if they don't lose too much value during the wait or after the dividend gets paid. All of this in the hopes oil goes back down to test it's lows.

[slimicy]

Sold my PSEC and GG for small profits, bought some MORL.

[Peanut]

Without a doubt, MSFT earned some of that drop. I just think a nearly 20% drop is an over reaction.

That was my view too.
I owned it from $30-45, sold last year, and bought back a 1/3 stake last month at $42 that I intend to unload around $47 or so. Nadella says all the right things, but I don't know how well he can execute. AWS is way ahead in cloud computing. Lumia is a marginal player. They do have the Xbox. Windows is as mature a product as you can get. I do think the company has a good culture. I have a cousin in law who works for them and he is bright and still excited about the company after more than a decade there.

[Peanut]

I bought some more IBM yesterday. Planning to buy some more each month for the next few months.

I bought a very small stake of IBM at $158 in December after reading that Buffet seems to like the company. I have no idea why, however. They're even farther behind the cloud than MSFT. Oh well. I plan to sell once I see maybe a 5% rise.

But you have much higher expectations?

[Peanut]

Does anyone else own Facebook, Twitter?

I feel like FB is due another bump up (not based on anything real, necessarily, just stable sentiment and cyclical timing). FB itself I think will be left for dead sooner rather than later by young people who prefer Snapchat. Bought my stake at $26, wonder every day if I should sell.

Twitter I think actually has potential. It's embedded in the mainstream news. It was $70 a year ago, surely it can get close again from irrational exuberance alone? Bought my stake at $33.

[workathome]

My IBM trade worked out I guess.

I had sold Puts for 160, which executed, then sold Calls at 160, which will execute on Friday (currently 162). I also scored 1 dividend payment along the ride. I'm ending the "experiment" now.

Time Period: 10/20/14 and ends 2/20/14.
Income: 2088.98 (522.25/mo)
% Return: 6.5% (1.6%/mo)

[Peanut]

My IBM trade worked out I guess.

I had sold Puts for 160, which executed, then sold Calls at 160, which will execute on Friday (currently 162). I also scored 1 dividend payment along the ride. I'm ending the "experiment" now.

Time Period: 10/20/14 and ends 2/20/14.
Income: 2088.98 (522.25/mo)
% Return: 6.5% (1.6%/mo)

Kudos on the nice profits!
Do you make more by waiting if it goes up? (I don't do option trading)
What exactly what it an "experiment" in--dinosaur tech?

[workathome]

Do you make more by waiting if it goes up? (I don't do option trading)
What exactly what it an "experiment" in--dinosaur tech?

No, I'm getting called out of my stock today. So I actually miss out on all the current profit ($3/share). $3 x 200 = $600 profit. If you bought and hold you would have actually had that plus the dividend of $220 (qualified too, so better tax terms). I also forgot to take account of transaction fees.

So, at this point I could sell some more PUTs at 160 and try to keep generating income as long as IBM bounces around here, but I think eventually the strategy blows up. Either something bad happens and the stock (or market) drops significantly and you're left holding the bag at 160, while not really wanting to own the stock that much, or it jumps a fair amount higher and you lose out on the stock you had wanted to own all along.

[Peanut]

Do you make more by waiting if it goes up? (I don't do option trading)
What exactly what it an "experiment" in--dinosaur tech?

No, I'm getting called out of my stock today. So I actually miss out on all the current profit ($3/share). $3 x 200 = $600 profit. If you bought and hold you would have actually had that plus the dividend of $220 (qualified too, so better tax terms). I also forgot to take account of transaction fees.

So, at this point I could sell some more PUTs at 160 and try to keep generating income as long as IBM bounces around here, but I think eventually the strategy blows up. Either something bad happens and the stock (or market) drops significantly and you're left holding the bag at 160, while not really wanting to own the stock that much, or it jumps a fair amount higher and you lose out on the stock you had wanted to own all along.

Ah, interesting. The math of trading options alone freaks me out, not to mention the risk. Then again, I'm comfortable with big bets in the short term. Whatever works, I say.

The news this week was that Buffett doubled down on IBM. He must know something I don't, or he knows the press will create the catalyst for him. He also fled oil. But I see others here are playing that trade successfully. Commodities are a mystery to me and I read contradictory things about how to invest after the drop so stayed out of it. I do own a small stake of BP since 2010 post spill, been waiting/wanting to sell since then. Bought at 46.

[workathome]

I think following 13Fs looks interesting, so maybe owning IBM and not owning XOM is a good idea.