Investments Trade Log

[Dragline]

Yeah, if you are looking for a long term dividend payer in the 4% range, CVX and XOM are beginning to look tasty. I think a little patience is warranted, though -- this may take a few months to play out.

I keep wondering if the appearance of that Tony Robbins book marked a top. When people outside of the investing world start writing about it and have best sellers, its usually a sign of bad things to come. Of course I am biased, because I've been waiting for a shoe to drop.

Gotta love those long-term government bonds this year: http://www.marketwatch.com/investing/Fu ... tryCode=US Time to sell a good chunk of them soon.

[IlliniDave]

I'm not a trader per se, nor a dividend investor, but I'm thinking about putting my 2015 backdoor Roth contribution into VGENX come the first of the year. My Roth is sort of my play space and despite my age now, my anticipated horizon if >20 years for it. But that fund is looking pretty value-y right now.

[bad_LNIP]

I think it might be time to throw out some 6 month calls on some of the most beaten down industries/stocks. While my crystal ball is as good as yours, I seriously, seriously doubt we will be talking about $2 gas in May of next year. I just don't think that will be the case. For example, the SDRL 12 April calls are a 1.50.

Probably a lot of opportunity in MLP's out there.

When I hear about people changing behavior because of a temporary market condition, that is kinda a signal to me. Lots of folks buying SUV's again? That might be a leading indicator.

[Chad]

A little patience is definitely warranted, as this situation could drag on for a while. I'm fully expecting to let any investments I make in oil companies sit for a couple years if I have too. This makes the dividend producers like XOM and CVX interesting for at least part of my investment in this sector. I'm also taking a small flyer on BP since their dividend is so high (6.4%) and there is more upside in the stock than the other majors. Though, there is higher chance they cut it than XOM and CVX.

There could still be more downside in oil, but we have probably seen a good portion of it unless we get another 2008 again.

I'm not a trader per se, nor a dividend investor, but I'm thinking about putting my 2015 backdoor Roth contribution into VGENX come the first of the year. My Roth is sort of my play space and despite my age now, my anticipated horizon if >20 years for it. But that fund is looking pretty value-y right now.

I have been directing roughly 30-40% of my 401k deposits into the Vanguard Energy Fund Admiral Shares (VGELX) the last few weeks. I plan to keep this overweight allocation model for the near future.

When I hear about people changing behavior because of a temporary market condition, that is kinda a signal to me. Lots of folks buying SUV's again? That might be a leading indicator.

Yeah, it's foolish and completely short-term thinking.

[fips]

Getting into oil and Russia this month feels like catching falling kinves.
I hope that's a good sign

[tylerrr]

spxs has saved my portfolio recently.

Oil has to be near a bottom. I'm looking for bottom in gold miners. GDXJ is getting crushed.

[jennypenny]

My trader friend who's been spot on in the oil sector told me he put in a buy order for SDRL @ $10.85. I took it as a good sign that he didn't see it going to zero.

If yesterday turns out to be the bottom for SDRL, I'll never doubt my friend again when he gives me a trading tip. It dipped just below his buy price, so he didn't miss out, but it's nicely higher today.

He also suggested UVXY about $10/share ago and I passed. *sigh*

[JohnnyH]

Just closed jan uvxy $25 calls I bought around uvxy $20, my best play in memory. Won't hold for fed tomorrow... Economy great, up timeline on dollar rate raise and crush Russian ruble? Or no inflation = no rate increase, don't worry investors we'll have you back at all times highs within a month!? ... Worried metals are going to break Nov31/Dec1 lows (gold 1140, slv 14).

Also, sold my GGN from a while ago at breakeven ($9), was planning to buy back if they kept the dividend stable. They did not (.09 to .07), and are near $6 now, re-evaluate at 15% div, which is $5.60/share... This is why I do not trust dividend investing, (I understand bluechips are more reliable, but even they adjust).

Speaking of dividends, I want to develop a list of oil/energy dividend stocks that have been recently hammered that have high and stable dividends. Only concern is that even if oil bottoms, equities could drag them down with them.

[tylerrr]

Just closed jan uvxy $25 calls I bought around uvxy $20, my best play in memory. Won't hold for fed tomorrow... Economy great, up timeline on dollar rate raise and crush Russian ruble? Or no inflation = no rate increase, don't worry investors we'll have you back at all times highs within a month!? ... Worried metals are going to break Nov31/Dec1 lows (gold 1140, slv 14).

agree on metals....Gold could be in free fall when you look at the long term chart on it. Could be a long-term downtrend.

nice trade BTW.

I'm really interested in oil right now. I don't see how it could continue lower for very long. There is too much big interest in propping up oil prices.

[workathome]

I broke my own rules and sold puts on XOM, BP, IBM, and MCD.

[Chad]

Speaking of dividends, I want to develop a list of oil/energy dividend stocks that have been recently hammered that have high and stable dividends. Only concern is that even if oil bottoms, equities could drag them down with them.

I have never been a "dividend investor" either. Not that I haven't factored them into my calculations for buying stocks, but I have never bought stocks entirely based on the dividend yield. However, that is changing, as I am now managing my father's portfolio and he is looking for more stable income.

Concerning oil companies, specifically oil majors, it doesn't appear there is a lot of danger in a dividend cut for the majors. This gives me some peace of mind concerning managing my father's portfolio. For instance:

- Chevron didn't cut it's dividend in 2008 when the oil price hit the low $30's. In fact, they continued to increase it. Though, it doesn't appear to be increased quite as fast for a year or so (I didn't run the actual numbers).
http://investor.chevron.com/phoenix.zht ... nformation

- Exxon is similar (Note: in 2001 there was stock split which causes a hiccup in the dividend, but this is not a cut)
http://www.nasdaq.com/symbol/xom/dividend-history

- BP is almost the same and they are one of the weaker majors. You will note they only cut the dividend because of the Gulf oil spill, not because of the 2008 crash. Though, the crash may have done enough damage to force them to cut the dividend when a new major liability appeared with the spill. Either way the 2008 crash by itself did not cause a dividend cut.
http://www.nasdaq.com/symbol/bp/dividend-history

Note: When I say divided cut I'm talking about the amount being paid and not the yield. The yield will fluctuate based on the price of the stock, which I'm sure you know.

Even if I buy these (for my dad) and they never have any capital gains and never raise the dividend they would still be good buys for him. Exxon is paying 3.19%, Chevron 4.21%, and BP 6.71% (admittedly, that has a little more risk to it). The nice thing about the majors is they make money off of more than just the price of oil.

[Dragline]

Don't forget COP. I agree this could be a prime buying opportunity for dividend seekers in this sector.

[tylerrr]

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[tylerrr]

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[tylerrr]

my issue with oil is if you look at the long term chart for Crude Oil, it sill hasn't come down to that 2009 bottom area. When Crude comes down to that point, I'd seriously think of buying things like XOM CHX, BP, or riskier plays like UWTi.

I think oil will come down some more.

http://www.barchart.com/chart.php?sym=C ... &template=[/quote]

[Chad]

Don't forget COP. I agree this could be a prime buying opportunity for dividend seekers in this sector.

I agree completely. I actually like COP, CVX, and BP a little better than XOM, as they have higher dividends and more upside with only slightly more risk...BP with a little more than all of them.

[Chad]

my issue with oil is if you look at the long term chart for Crude Oil, it sill hasn't come down to that 2009 bottom area. When Crude comes down to that point, I'd seriously think of buying things like XOM CHX, BP, or riskier plays like UWTi.

I think oil will come down some more.

http://www.barchart.com/chart.php?sym=C ... &template=

[/quote]

I don't disagree, but I'm not confident I can pick the exact bottom. I just want to be buying in roughly the bottom quarter of the downturn.

[workathome]

With XOM you have to consider buybacks, which give a "shareholder yield" matching the BP payout.

[tylerrr]

my issue with oil is if you look at the long term chart for Crude Oil, it sill hasn't come down to that 2009 bottom area. When Crude comes down to that point, I'd seriously think of buying things like XOM CHX, BP, or riskier plays like UWTi.

I think oil will come down some more.

http://www.barchart.com/chart.php?sym=C ... &template=

I don't disagree, but I'm not confident I can pick the exact bottom. I just want to be buying in roughly the bottom quarter of the downturn.[/quote]

you can always average down and buy a little every two weeks in case it keeps going down with price of crude oil...Eventually, you should see crude oil bottom in place/some consolidation.

[Chad]

you can always average down and buy a little every two weeks in case it keeps going down with price of crude oil...Eventually, you should see crude oil bottom in place/some consolidation.

That is actually what I'm doing. Except I'm using both time and price to decide when to buy, not just time.