Early Retirement Extreme Forums

Keep in mind some estimates put the lower bound on percent of the population infected around 20% to 40%. So I wouldn't give up on avoidance entirely just yet. I know I'm doing everything I can to avoid it until the vaccine.

But I have plans for both avoidance and a contingency plan it I do contract it.

jacob wrote: ↑

Sun Mar 08, 2020 10:19 am

https://www.instructables.com/id/The-Pa ... entilator/ for the DIY types.

Incredible!

There is also the backup solution that needs no electricity but requires human power...
https://www.redcross.org/store/disposab ... 60002.html

Regarding avoidance, at what point are people here ceasing to interact with larger groups?

Personally, I work from home so I'm good in that respect but I take jiu jitsu and dance classes. Those 2 are by far my highest vectors of transmission and I'm on the fence about stopping.

The other aspect to keep in mind, as far as delaying getting the virus, even if you believe it is inevitable, is mutations. Logically, as the virus circulates it will mutate and the mutation that will infect the most people will likely survive over the more lethal versions. I believe I remember reading this happened with H1N1, correct me if I am wrong. So, if you wait, your chances of surviving the virus or recieveing a more contagious but less lethal strain may go up.

I also found this article to be interesting:

https://paradigmchange.me/wp/coronaviru ... 8RrZ9_Y630

It suggests environmental factors are having an effect on the severity of the virus, which does seem to be consistent for what I have seen of this and other viruses that affect the respiratory system. That would mean that avoiding these environmental factors may help your recovery if infected.

@den18 -

This was interesting. My highlights from your link. This suggests the true death rate is not as low as some are hoping ... and that social distancing works.

More of a surprise, and this is something we still don’t understand, is how little virus there was in the much broader community. Everywhere we went, we tried to find and understand how many tests had been done, how many people were tested, and who were they.

In Guangdong province, for example, there were 320,000 tests done in people coming to fever clinics, outpatient clinics. And at the peak of the outbreak, 0.47 percent of those tests were positive. People keep saying [the cases are the] tip of the iceberg. But we couldn’t find that. We found there’s a lot of people who are cases, a lot of close contacts — but not a lot of asymptomatic circulation of this virus in the bigger population. And that’s different from flu. In flu, you’ll find this virus right through the child population, right through blood samples of 20 to 40 percent of the population.

jacob wrote: ↑

Sun Mar 08, 2020 12:01 pm

@den18 -

This was interesting. My highlights from your link. This suggests the true death rate is not as low as some are hoping ... and that social distancing works.

Yes, that quote was pretty interesting to me. It is one of the reasons I feel like there is some environmental factor that highly affects the severity of the illness. The author believes it is toxic mold, and provides some previous cases where it contributed. I have also seen some theories that the new installation of 5G in Wuhan could have contributed to how bad it was in that city, due to immunosupressive effect of high frequency EMF:

“Suppression of nonspecific resistance of the body under the effect of extremely high frequency electromagnetic radiation of low intensity.” https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/11855293

Or both and more. Wuhan is also a highly highly polluted city which I can't imagine helps. Regardless, it does not seem to spread like the flu, so something else seems to be going on.

Wrt the supposed iceberg of mild cases-the fact it doesn't exist is what I've been thinking too. Not to sound like a conspiracy theorist, but the way they keep framing the supposed mildness of the illness is propaganda.

For example, they'll say "flu has a fatality rate of less than 1%" But this is completely misleading. The CFR of flu is 0.1% or 0.01% for the low risk crowd. COVID19 is 0.2% for the low risk crowd and there is no iceberg of mild cases to save us.

Any ideas as to why the growth of the virus in China dramatically tapered off? I would have thought it would be exponential there by now but its really going at crawl speed compared to the number who have already been infected there. Meanwhile Italy is going exponential. Whats happening in China does seem to give some hope as to it dying off. If it has a pattern of hitting one area hard and then dying off after jumping to the next distant location.

Biggest UK supermarket starts rationing staples as 10% of shoppers stockpile:

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-51790375

AnalyticalEngine wrote: ↑

Sun Mar 08, 2020 12:48 pm

The CFR of flu is 0.1% or 0.01% for the low risk crowd.

Do you/anyone have a table for flu CFR sorted by age groups? My google-fu is failing me.

Main reason for delaying my up north isolation by a week or two would be the weather. Also few loose ends to wrap up such as stocking my mother and taking leave from my job ( which I hate (because 12year old children screaming “bitch” at me while I vaguely attempt to teach them why simple wave is represented by non-linear equation, etc.) so no loss there except$$.)

If I am in the 6% death risk group, it makes no sense whatsoever to attempt to expose myself sooner, because half of those who are severe enough to need extreme measures in hospital die, and it is highly unlikely that the entirety of recovery is due to treatment.

Unfortunately, it seems like my new theme for 2020 will be The Year of Not Dying.

thrifty++ - Three possible reasons.

1) The hard lockdown quarantine measures work.
2) A few weeks ago, China briefly switched to diagnosing by symptoms (clinical) rather than by testing. This led to a quick jump. This policy was later reversed ... and one effect is that false clinical positives (lab negatives) are being subtracted from the growth numbers as the tests are being processed.
3) They're running out of testing material.

I'd bet on (1) being the dominant reason.

1500 New cases in italy today, total positives up to 7300 - 366 dead

jacob wrote: ↑

Sun Mar 08, 2020 1:33 pm

Do you/anyone have a table for flu CFR sorted by age groups? My google-fu is failing me.

Best I can find:

Denver has exported three cases: one to Canada, one to Australia and one to Brazil. This would indicate community transmission in Denver. Meanwhile the Denver health department continues to assure us this is just the flu and the 8 cases they say we have are all there is.

I'm guessing someone at Denver International Airport is infected and passing it on to others. Not good!

Chicago has the first case of community transfer. Let the goal post moving commence!

George the original one wrote: ↑

Fri Mar 06, 2020 2:51 pm

Oregon Health Authority counts as of 9:30a Fri, Mar 5
- 3 Positives (no change)
- 64 Negatives
- 28 Pending
- 190 Currently Monitoring
- 247 Completed Monitoring or no risk

More tests means more cases found

Oregon Health Authority as of 10a Sun, Mar 8
- 14 Positives
- 100 Negatives
- 53 Pending
- 203 Currently Monitoring
- 290 Completed Monitoring or no risk

Cases by County
- 1 Douglas
- 2 Jackson
- 1 Klamath
- 1 Marion
- 1 Umatilla
- 8 Washington

Cases by Age Group
- 1 17 or younger
- 1 18-24
- 0 25-34
- 5 35-54
- 7 55-74

George the original one wrote: ↑

Fri Mar 06, 2020 2:45 pm

State of Washington published count as of 11a Fri, 6 Mar
- 79 confirmed cases
- 11 deaths

State of Washington published count as of 4p Sun, 8 Mar
- 136 Positives
- 1110 Negatives
- 18 deaths

Cases by County
- 1 Clark
- 1 Grant
- 1 Jefferson
- 83 King
- 1 Kittitas
- 4 Pierce
- 31 Snohomish

Cases by Age
- 3 0-19
- 6 20-29
- 13 30-39
- 17 40-49
- 19 50-59
- 27 60-69
- 13 70-79
- 27 80+

Cases by Sex at Birth
- 70 Female
- 51 Male
- 15 Unknown

They are not going to stop this just by testing and tracking down contacts. It's either full quarantine or it spreads throughout the world. I don't like it either but life isn't fair. I will gladly stay in my house for 2 weeks if it keeps people from getting killed.