Early Retirement Extreme Forums

A human incapable of a given level of abstraction has/will always be dependent upon tools, scaffolding, other humans to perform tasks requiring that level of abstraction. However, this does not imply that the use of such tools/scaffolding/social-support will tend towards reducing capabilities. For example, because I have spent so many hours tutoring students in math at a variety of levels, it is obvious to me that pencil and paper are also scaffolding tools. IOW, a peer-level/collaborative interaction with an AI is not all that different than utilizing paper and pencil in order to solve a math problem; by projecting your thoughts on to paper, you are better able to utilize yourself as your own peer. And this is towards why the practice of utilizing AI as a peer-collaborator is so strongly recommended. Alternatively utilizing AI as either a servant or an authority will tend more towards the creation of failures/dependencies or odd nonsense. For example, when my calculator dependent students make simple algebra problems more difficult than they should be by generating decimal format coefficients vs. making appropriate use of a calculator when a relationship is most appropriately expressed with decimal format coefficients.

Or, more generally, if you don't know whether or not you are making appropriate use of AI (or any other tool/scaffolding/social-support) then that itself is indicative of your innate level of MHC, and if you do know then it doesn't matter all that much.

@jacob When your signal is too low, remembering things is still faster than googling them.
What i would be afraid to lose, is not the ability to remember thing per se, but the ability to attach thing to context well enough to make remembering them relatively easy.
On a similar note to your experience, when my dad studied mechanical engineering, he had to make a perfect steel cube with just a file and a micrometer this cube is still on his office.
Also, while a big part of the next generation might lose some ability to think, I think that thinking is inherently rewarding for a lot of people.
Maybe abstract thinking will become a hobby? I mean, their are people who carry heavy stuff on their back as a hobby.

You used to use credit credit cars until the credit card companies realized they can use you. You used to search the internet, until the internet providers realized that the internet can search you. If you want to have a tragically ironic blockbuster movie moment where you take a deep breath and wipe the sweat off your brow and earnestly believe that you really killed the monster dead, go ahead. But Iet's skip to the ending first because after all, it's really not a spoiler alert. You do not use AI. AI uses you.

@Henry:

Sure, just like wheat, corn, and rice used us to dominate the fields. Still, as of this moment in history, a human can live without credit cards, internet browsers, AI, or Field Corn 2, but they still need some of us humans (how many might be an interesting calculation.) Although, obviously, solar-powered robots that can design and operate solar cell plants and solar cell powered robot plants may alter this paradigm.

AI is also already capable of designing novel viruses that could potentially decimate the human population. All that it needs is a few rogue humans and a few million dollars to build the bio-tech capabilities.

7Wannabe5 wrote: ↑

Fri Jun 20, 2025 10:01 am

Still, as of this moment in history, a human can live without credit cards, internet browsers, AI, or Field Corn 2,

Corn aside, in principle yes, but in practice, no. Unless you really put a lot of effort into it. Like Herculean effort. And I think with AI, unlike credit cards or the internet, it's not like WWI when not joing the army was viewed as an act of cowardice, like your just fighting cultural norms, it's whether you believe you can survive a Tsunami. And the answer is ultimately, no, you won't survive. Maybe your house will still be standing, but everything surrounding it, the bridges, the department stores, most of your neighbor's houses, the basic infrastructure surrounding your house will succumb to its power. And that's my point. You cannot harness the power of a Tsunami. Sure it can initially water your corn fields and you can fill your wells and you think "Look, I can use this". But by the time the wind and the rain have realized their full power, all your shit is gone. We're early in the storm. Listening to the weatherman that most suits our views on whether there even is a storm. Fair enough. I'm betting big on it being real and kicking everyone's ass sooner than they thought. And I know Elon specifically has been saying five years for 20 years but I think we are now somewhere in the five years.

@Henry:

So, you are betting on it being big enough to change just about everything while leaving the possibility of achieving and retaining profit from your personal stock market investments in it intact? One fun fact about tsunamis is that their impact follows a power law distribution. So, I wouldn't place my bet on Wall Street level tower being much more secure than Main Street level store front. I am only partially just-amusing-myself with my current "Will also obliterate Capitalism." stance in the AI discussion/debate.

7Wannabe5 wrote: ↑

Fri Jun 20, 2025 11:12 am

So, you are betting on it being big enough to change just about everything while leaving the possibility of achieving and retaining profit from your personal stock market investments in it intact?

Yes. As long as it stays on course. If it turns in the wrong direction, it won't matter any ways. Considering the multi trillion dollar power behind it, it's hard not to be Manichaean about it.

Henry wrote:Considering the multi trillion dollar power behind it

Yet, those representing this multi trillion dollar power behind it are also the ones most frequently making public appearances to declare their own lack of control. I mean, this could just be part of some Machiavellian 5-D chess game they are playing or it could just be attention-seeking any-press-is-good-press, but...? Let's say it's just 30% likely that Even They don't have a solid grip on likely outcome space, how's that tsunami looking now? AI doesn't require robots to take down financial markets, because they share the same life blood.

Henry wrote: ↑

Fri Jun 20, 2025 10:32 am

And I know Elon specifically has been saying five years for 20 years but I think we are now somewhere in the five years.

Alternatively, somewhere in the 20+ years?

7Wannabe5 wrote: ↑

Fri Jun 20, 2025 3:17 pm

Let's say it's just 30% likely that Even They don't have a solid grip on likely outcome space, how's that tsunami looking now? AI doesn't require robots to take down financial markets, because they share the same life blood.

As I said, if the 30% chance happens, it doesn't matter if I invested in Tesla or indexes, especially since Vanguard owns 7.5% of TSLA. If nothing happens for the next 20 years, I think the most I'll lose is opportunity costs and probably so much board cred I'll have to go back to trolling fat girl sites.

George Horz ("celebrity programmer" who, amongst other things, ran his own small FSD AI company) predicts that dollar value of models, and dollar value of companies working on models "will likely go to zero" (due to nature of software), and the last stop in the AI value chain will be chip makers.

A few years back I watched an interview between George Horz and Lex Fridman. George's real claim to fame is that he hacked an IPHONE as a teenager. He is no doubt a genius. But in retrospect, although just a few years back, the discussion between Horz and Fridman (who was originally an MIT student working on robotics and self driving) which primarily focused on autonomous driving, is anachronistic due to it taking place in the year two thousand whatever BN (before Nividia). I wouldn't argue with his future vision, but with these types of genius qua futuristic guys, they don't give specific time frames, so they are never wrong.

I found this recent take, "There's No Stopping This Train: AI, Power, and the Collapse of Old Systems" by Angelo Robles, author of "The Effective Family Office: Best Practices and Beyond" rather interesting. It almost philosophically intersects with ERE at some junctures:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=9pyf5onvFpA