2024 market predictions

[okumurahata]

@rube. EU: “Any customer can have any car he wants, as long as it is 0 emissions.”

When I was in the rabbit hole of EVs, I saw the MKHBD video of the Toyota Prius with the literal solar roof, and I thought that it was a cool idea. On his review, he got an extra ~4 miles per day (~6,5 km), which would cover a short commute, mine, for example, as I go to the office 3 times a week. Theoretically, I wouldn’t need to plug the car ever. For long trips, you could use the gas motor, as the car is hybrid.

It would be nice if more companies followed this path. Imagine using the solar cell of your vehicle for moving around the city and for charging small devices like your phone or computer.

[Slevin]

@okumurahata Aptera is claiming up to 40 miles per day from the roof solar panel in SoCal. That’s never plug in your car again sort of numbers.

Obviously, putting a solar panel on the roof of the car is kinda dumb compared to just keeping it on your house (my house doesn’t get into traffic accidents), but it’s still a cool concept for those who can’t charge at home, etc.

[okumurahata]

@slevin Didn’t know this brand. I’m impressed. Looks simple and efficient, but also ugly as hell compared to traditional brands. Being cars such status symbols, let’s wait for consumers’ reaction. Props to them though, they have something different: The cabin of a helicopter, the efficiency of a bird, the range of two Teslas, and the ugliness of a Citroën.

[zbigi]

It is one way of dimishing fossil resource consumption in an extremely energy hungry sector. The market is not exactly good at pricing in negative externalities like pollution, resource exhaustion and climate change.

The market is equally bad at pricing those in for electric cars, though.

[zbigi]

The lithium bit is largely covered.

Can you give your sources on that? IIRC, Peter Zeihan recently said that lithium production will likely only double in the next ten years (because building mines and processing plants takes time), whereas, if we want to switch EVs globally, the production would have to increase manyfold (10x?).

[loutfard]

Can you give your sources on that? IIRC, Peter Zeihan recently said that lithium production will likely only double in the next ten years (because building mines and processing plants takes time), whereas, if we want to switch EVs globally, the production would have to increase manyfold (10x?).

https://www.isi.fraunhofer.de/en/blog/t ... alyse.html is a reputable source.

[chenda]

Whatever happens with the engines, lets just hope there is a lot less of them being used.

[ducknald_don]

Peter Zeihan works for the energy companies, I'd take anything he says with a pinch of salt.

[giskard]

Peter Zeihan works for the energy companies, I'd take anything he says with a pinch of salt.

He's also just wrong about everything. You can find 10 year old videos of him on Youtube saying "China is collapsing". You can find a video of him saying this every single year without interruption.

China is collapsing? No. It's not, it's a juggernaut. China's GDP just surpassed all of the Eurozone. It has maybe has surpassed US GDP but it's hard to say who's numbers are faker. I estimate US GDP is 30% overstated. US true Debt/GDP ratio is nearing 180% in my estimation lol.

[chenda]

China is collapsing? No. It's not, it's a juggernaut. China's GDP just surpassed all of the Eurozone. It has maybe has surpassed US GDP but it's hard to say who's numbers are faker. I estimate US GDP is 30% overstated. US true Debt/GDP ratio is nearing 180% in my estimation lol.

According to very serious people in the west China has been about to collapse for the last 40 years.

Yes GDP figures are very unreliable are often taken at face value without any proper context (such as per capita) or in many cases are essentially bullshit (like Ireland's absurdly inflated GDP ranking) I think the US measures its GDP in a different way from other countries which which further complicates matters, and has led to rather dubious claims like California having a bigger economy than Germany.

[AxelHeyst]

Obviously, putting a solar panel on the roof of the car is kinda dumb compared to just keeping it on your house (my house doesn’t get into traffic accidents), but it’s still a cool concept for those who can’t charge at home, etc.

It is a nice salve for range anxiety though... worst case scenario you can just find a safe place to pull over and wait a while. I was just wondering a few days ago where all the hyperaerodynamic EVs are and, well, there's one answer. Cool, hope it works out.

[thedollar]

1. Q1 earnings will not be as good as anticipated (for big tech, consumer, etc., except banks) causing a 5-10% drop in stocks
2. Fed cuts rates after summer (total of 2 cuts)
3. S&P 500 will end above 5,000 and the market will return around 10%
4. Brent crude will end at $60-65
5. House prices will stabilize as the market anticipates lower rates
6. BTC will hit ATH above $60,000
7. NVIDIA and AI bubble pops, with NVIDIA staying below $500
8. Tesla stock will see most volatile year ever going below $150 and above $350 as the market continues having trouble pricing it correctly
9. US elections will be insane either electing Biden or Trump?!

1) Wrong. S&P500 increased 10%.
2) Feds cut rates 3 times, not 2.
3) S&P 500 is currently up 27%+ and at over 6,000!!
4) Brent crude at $73 - pretty close to the $65 prediction
5) N/A
6) Partly correct. BTC at ATH and over 90k now!
7) Wrong. Nvidia continued to outperform with no bubble.
8) I'll say I was mostly right with Tesla going to as low as $140 and now above $450!

[Henry]

I think 2024 has proven that your #7 and #8 overlap in any Venn diagram modeling of the near future. It won't be static, they might at some future point become untethered, but for the next few years, they share a significant circle where you can clearly read both their ticker symbols.