Early Retirement Extreme Forums

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Based on the course of action taken by current politicians, it is clear that the idea of fiscal discipline is not in their agenda.

Far from it, they have chosen the path of easy money, despite many historical precedence telling us not to do so.

It is painfully clear that the government has no plans or preparations of any kind in place for economic fallouts that may result from their recklessness.

They are going to print money, no matter what, at all costs.

It is projected that by the end of 2020, the Federal Reserve balance sheet will reach 10 trillion dollars. It started the year with 4 trillion. ( https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/WALCL )

The history has taught us over and over again, how this will end in the long term and it will not be pretty.

We will be serving our kids as sacrificial lambs on the altar in exchange for our lack of discipline.

For the short term, this may work (or may not).

Bigger the bubble, more it takes to pump it back up once the bubble pops. For the 2008 housing crisis, it took the Fed about 3.5 trillion for over 10 years using series of quantitative easing programs.

In addition, the Congress spent around 440 billion under TARP and additional 831 billion under The American Recovery and Reinvestment Act. (https://www.usatoday.com/story/news/pol ... 010452002/)

The result was a creation of even bigger bubble.

With the 2020 pandemic, Fed has already spent over 3 trillion dollars in 4 MONTHS. This does not include the additional 2 trillion dollars of congressional spending under the Cares Act. And there is trillion(s) more on the way, under Cares Act II. (https://www.washingtonpost.com/business ... ts-wrapper)

But show is not over til the fat lady sings. While it is expected that the market will move higher after the second stimulus, the true test will be to see if the market will be able to hold the new historical high, assuming it gets there.

If we are lucky, market may fall and coil for a couple of years, looking for a direction. But if we move as everyone predicts, the market will continue to edge higher but we may see inflation or even stagflation.

I'm of the opinion that given the magnitude of the reckless money printing that we are seeing from both political parties, the dollar will weaken, which will be inflationary.

The possibility of major shift in the role of the dollar in the world stage is now more likely. I don't believe the rest of the world will continue business as usual after the pandemic.

The dollar could be replaced as the major currency or even be devalued. These are now in the realm of possibility.


One thing that is clear, is that life just got harder for the majority of people for a long while to come.

This much I know as of right now:

I'm going to be holding on to my job for a long while yet, at minimum, as an effective inflation hedge. Retirement just became a luxury.

I will be transitioning to hard assets, including real estate, sooner than later.

The immediate investing horizon compressed significantly, and I will be more of a leveraged trader than an investor. As an investor, I will be looking out for stable high yield equities to compensate for inflation.

Bonds are done. There is no sense in holding bonds any longer.

Interesting couple of articles, I was find it funny hearing the banker interviews of...

There's never been anything like, the world was going to implode, the most important thing that ever existed ever isn't working.

Then everyone believes them and we shunt all the impacts of the system that they built onto Joe Public.

Agree that the real assets are king just now. I'm not sure what the end outcome is of the entire world printing as much as they can as fast as they can. New kind of experiment.

The fact it is everyone is probably delaying a larger dollar fall. Not sure how long that will last as I certainly don't want any now. But then again I'm not so keep on pounds either.

Another perspective (caution - ignore political views)

https://theanalysis.news/interviews/fed ... el-hudson/

The fool strikes again


It seems our emperor without clothes is claiming that he IS the US government and that he can do as he pleases.

Just one problem however, the deferment of FICA taxes will have to be paid back and it's only valid from August to the end of the year.

Personally, I will not be taking part in this shenanigans and plan to ask my employer to just collect the taxes.

It's creating more problems than it is worth.

Typical of Trump, just another loud mouth plan full of air and nothing but the leftover byproduct of the digestive system.

It's time for this dictator-in-training to move on.

Chances are very high that he will become the first U.S. President to be incarcerated after he leaves the office.

IF, he leaves without creating yet another scheme for a Constitutional crisis.

Judge a man's character by his actions


If a man claims that he is a partiot, then let his actions speak for themselves.

Do as I say but not as I do simply will not cut it. Never has. Never will.

A man whose actions deceive his own words is nothing but a coward and a liar.


This is a nation of rule of law. And we the people are the embodiment of its Constitution.

We are a nation, or we're not.

I think this video says a lot about the people that make up this country and who we really are.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=aqPvVxxIDr0

Where is the future headed? - playing what if's


These are the facts -

There are over 5 trillion that have been set loose in the economy.

Fed's balance sheet has risen by over 3 trillion.

Dollar has begun its decline.

Q2 US GDP contracted by a historical -33%. Q3 GDP is estimated to be around +20%, with projected net -8% GDP decline for US in 2020.

0% interest rate is back and possibly for a foreseeable future.

Gold is rising. (Correcting atm)


The strategy thus far have been to minimize market risk and instead focusing on maximizing savings.

The reason was simple. The growth was set to begin on the steep incline of the exponential curve.

The time span for the growth was minimal - mere years versus decades. It also increased social security.

These assets offer degree of inflation hedging for life, meaning, the benefits for both would increase over time.


But a bird in the hand is worth two in the bush.


In addition, I've been utilizing various savings mechanism available through work to improve the return on savings risk free.

So I've been playing both sides of the field sort of speak. The longer market stays climbing.

Is that likely, given these conditions in the US economy? Is the rich 1% taking their money and run to live happily ever after in New Zealand paradise?

Can we keep pumping this bubble by printing money for another decade without any consequences to the standard of living in the US and the purchasing power of the dollar?

I don't have a crystal ball that is good enough to predict any of this accurately.


Instead, it is probably better to find the least common denominator that is pertinent and assures its preservation in the event of the worst case(s).

1. High Inflation (stagflation) or Hyper Inflation

2. Dollar collapse

I believe housing is the best solution for both cases. Stock market's ability to hedge inflation diminishes as the rate of inflation edges toward 5% and higher. (engineered CPI numbers are irrelevant against real life prices of goods and services during inflation)

Can't live out of, nor eat gold. Timing for conversion could be detrimental even if one owns gold. But I can make something out of a house with a plot of land. If these worst case scenarios unfold, then real asset will be king.

The "GREAT" American Evolution

Here we go again.

Powell announces new Fed approach to inflation that could keep rates lower for longer
https://www.cnbc.com/2020/08/27/powell- ... onger.html

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=r_68bKMqfMA

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=FL5LJ17Y7lg

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=X_wHBlouFSc

Keep working and keep saving (while you can).

(still works!)

Heading into tumultuous times


The national civil unrest that is unfolding before our eyes has the potential to turn into a full blown civil war with Trump's re-election to his second term. In that event, it will be less likely that Trump will finish his second term.

There are too many factors working against our nation for us to prevent this catastrophic outcome. The deteriorating economy, race tensions and class warfare will all act as catalysts in propelling our nation closer toward the bloodshed.

I don't believe people see this yet. The saving grace will be the Republican loss of Senate.


There is a reason why etiquette exists. Through manners, people with differences are able to communicate with with one another. This customary code of polite behavior has existed in societies and cultures throughout history.

This is because people ARE different and people with differences needed a way to communicate and survive together. Communication is not possible without manners.


Let us hope that we can avoid the tragedy.

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https://www.nytimes.com/2020/08/28/busi ... ality.html

A Gen-X Adviser to Biden Argues Equality Is Good for Growth

Stocktake: Day trading like it’s 1999 will end in tears
https://www.irishtimes.com/business/per ... -1.4283218

‘Cooped-up’ millennial traders have sparked a new pandemic — it won’t end well, warns Princeton economist
https://www.marketwatch.com/story/coope ... 2020-06-17

Short Term Prophets
https://www.wired.com/1999/01/daytrader/

Been there done that - Let's party like it's 1999
https://youtu.be/rblt2EtFfC4

You've been using a nice way of summarizing savings.

Here also brokerage account opening surged during the pre-lockdown market crash and most number of trades executed for a brokerage firm stands at 7 million in a day. For comparison that's ~4 times US' (scottrade's) max in a day although in my_country <0.6% of the population have an active brokerage account.

Good thing, bad thing, who knows? Atleast your reserve bank governor doesn't go around openly saying "there is disconnect between the market and the ground reality."