Early Retirement Extreme Forums

Just before Christmas Treasury published rules attempting to regulate self hosted crypto wallets and how they can interact with regulated exchanges. Consequently, tons of money is flowing out of the regulated exchanges, into wallets then through mixers/washers and into new wallets. AFAIK these transactions appear like real trades.

nomadscientist wrote: ↑

Wed Jan 06, 2021 5:02 pm

Unlike shemp, I do not think this is ruled out by BTC's lack of state power. BTC may not be able to exercise physical force, but brute force cannot break modern encryption.

Issue of state power is that states can force people to pay taxes in their currency, or they can confiscate real assets and give currency in exchange (taxation in another guise). This is the underlying basis for the value of these currencies. Currencies that suffer hyperinflation are those issued by governments that lack enough military/police power relative to currency. Whereas bitcoin cannot force anyone to pay taxes in bitcoin. What's more, anyone can setup a competitor to Bitcoin, and hundreds have indeed done just that: there is no scarcity of digital currencies themselves, only a scarcity within each such currency.

The best way to understand Bitcoin is to think back on all the other artificially created scarce things of the past: collectable postage stamps and old metal coins, antique furniture, artwork, baseball cards, antique automobiles, Green stamps (Buffett and Munger invested big on those, buying the franchise to manufacture and sell such stamps rather than buying the retail stamps themselves, of course), Beanie Babies, Tulips, etc. It's so obvious to me that Bitcoin is eventually going the way of these other crazes. Might take 20 years for a roundtrip back from zero to million or whatever and back to zero, but zero is the final destination, of that I'm certain. Or the trip might be much shorter and who knows what the high point will be.

If people were really desperate for ways to store wealth safe from inflation, there would a lot more REITs, especially REITs backed by farmland and infrastructure. REITs and stocks that currently exist are adequate for now however.

As for the argument that Bitcoin is better than REITs or stocks because free from government capital movement controls, the day the USA and Europe feel the need for capital controls is the day bitcoin is outlawed, with penalties harsher than under FATCA and every resource of the NSA and similar agencies put at Department of Treasury disposal to locate anyone who mighut ever have owned a bitcoin wallet.

PS don't underestimate the potential for someone's like Renaissance Technologies collaborating with Facebook and Google (or Chinese equivalents of the preceding) to organize a machine intelligence managed greatest pump and dump operation of all time.

shemp wrote: ↑

Thu Jan 07, 2021 3:41 pm

It's so obvious to me that Bitcoin is eventually going the way of these other crazes. Might take 20 years for a roundtrip back from zero to million or whatever and back to zero, but zero is the final destination, of that I'm certain. Or the trip might be much shorter and who knows what the high point will be.

that's a great assessment, and it works for me, as im in it only to make dollars, and will gladly pay taxes on the profits--provided there are any

Lucky C wrote: ↑

Thu Jan 07, 2021 12:08 pm

I'm downgrading my BTC target from $49k to $39k (which is the current price)...

Y'all had all weekend to get out in the $39k-$41k range. Now around $34k. Could easily pop back up to new highs this week, but when a gigantic parabolic trend is broken like this, I would be careful!

i did get out, but planning to get back in....

thinking maybe when it hits 3...2? dipped to 33 this morning.

(originally was thinking 30 but might be too far)

Again I've never held Bitcoin, but if I did, my long term mindset would have me not getting back in until the bullish sentiment significantly eroded. Even better, if news headlines were declaring it to be dead (assuming it's not actually dead). Of course if that happens it would be years from now at a much lower price (sub 10k?). But who knows, it might not behave that much like bubbles in other markets.

technical signals aside i think the fundamentals have changed as it's now an acceptable alternative to gold backed by large investors. fluctuations will happen, but i don't foresee a total crash going forward. but who knows? i only bought $200 of it.

it's mostly an aid to watching and learning for me. the money makes me pay attention, read, learn, in a way that purely theoretical reasoning doesn't. bit of skin in the game haha. but i'm just going to school with this. the only real investment here is in myself.

btc climbing again. i set my buy order at 31.4 and missed the boat by a few dollars

I guess measuring momentum by 200 day moving averages of stock prices is an old man's game. Instead buy Bitcoin when it crosses over the 200 minute moving average!

Dropping again now but if it lasts the day above $31k = higher lows than yesterday's lows, I imagine that would be a good confidence boost.

This dip and bounce lines up pretty well with that silver chart I posted, when 1980 silver hit $40/oz, then two days later closed below $33/oz, then over the next 10 trading days rallied to right around $50 before crashing. Again, probably means nothing, but history rhymes and all that.

Lucky C wrote: ↑

Tue Jan 12, 2021 4:58 am

I guess measuring momentum by 200 day moving averages of stock prices is an old man's game. Instead buy Bitcoin when it crosses over the 200 minute moving average!

I actually think that is the case because of increased volatility across securities. BTC is even more volatile than most stocks, but I think relying on 200 day moving averages to follow trends isn’t the best idea in today’s environment.

missed the low tide again this morning

(went down to 32.8 and back up again, left me hanging)

unlike most people who advertise only the wins i will post all my failures for the world to see.

if it's a bull market again i'll jump on even if late...

been trading sideways in the 34K range since yesterday, narrowing progressively towards 34.5, interesting to see if it might break out in either direction. ive parked my dollars on the side waiting for the price to move. this is more fun than horses

so the think broke upward yesterday and it now hovers around 40k again...

but im sitting on the sidelines because a) i got tired of tracking (short attention span) b) i got tired of guessing (i need to know, not just guess..)

i guess if i had $275K instead of $275 i would be more attentive

but as it is, i need to read more textbooks first... i need to acquire better tools and develop better judgment. amen.

For those of you who own Bitcoin, how are you storing it? Coinbase? Thumb drive in your safe? Something in between?

@wb I only have about $300 USD worth of BTC (traded some other freebie crypto from a while ago for it) and I indeed happen to have it on Coinbase. Also warming up my office during the winter with another 120 watts of heat by having my gaming PC GPU mine ETH. Very slow going and probably should not be doing it (not the cheapest area for power plus heat is included in the rent) but for now... I was using a direct wallet for a bit (I was trying MyCrypto) but needed a place to exchange that freebie crypto and had this Coinbase account sitting around.

I have been wondering what the most efficient way is to buy in with USD. I guess I'd go with the ACH deposit to Coinbase. Curious if anyone else has figured that out. I'm not planning on buying anything anytime soon unless ETH tanks.

It seems Coinbase is the most popular option. I feel like this may be a similar case to gold storage, where a mix of Gold ETF (Coinbase) and physical gold (USB drive) are the best option as they hedge you against different risks (Coinbase being shutdown/unavailable vs house burning down/robbery).

If you're looking to hold for a while, then it makes sense to transfer out to a wallet. As you say, this protects you from exchanges getting hacked or freezing your accounts. Whether a hot wallet (eg browser/phone app like metamask) or a cold wallet (usb key, or print out the private key onto paper). Either way, make sure you have a backup so you can access it if things go wrong!

MIT course Blockchain and Money taught by Gary Gensler the incoming SEC Chairman.

https://ocw.mit.edu/courses/sloan-schoo ... -lectures/

Government regulation is coming. He will be involved.

Also warming up my office during the winter with another 120 watts of heat by having my gaming PC GPU mine ETH.

Here I am thinking how can I rig a bicycle to power a PC to mine Bitcoin / ETH haha