Today was a good example of why you should never be the first person at the party or the last to leave.
Busy week. Bought more GLD anticipating buying more physical gold (can't until July so I'm hoping the price doesn't go up too much). Bought, then sold RIO. Made enough to (almost) cover my loss on DNDN so I sold. I'm comfortable holding everything else but I chickened out on DNDN. I always get burned when I sell for that reason so if any of you are looking for a spec play, buy DNDN
>>Crickey, almost my entire portfolio seems to be based on companies servicing the self-destructive habits the humans.
That's how the mob made most of its money.
I'm thinking of buying some GE.
Anyone have any thoughts on BAC and its future? I bought some about a year ago and I've made 18%. I'm thinking of buying some more.
I have a signalling system for Dow components that told me to buy BAC at the beginning of the year, but I just couldn't pull the trigger. I am very wary of financial stocks, particular the TBTFs, because they are essentially dependent on government action. If I was following what I had planned, I would not buy any more and would sell at year-end.
@Dragline,
Yeah, I actually think BAC is probably TBTF and that's one of the reasons I'm thinking of buying more. It will be interesting to watch though.
this may be a dumb question/thought, but has anyone considered buying Spanish bonds? I say that because I heard interest rates over there are up to 7% so I would assumed interest rates on 30 year Spanish bonds are around that?
I know Europe is in a very precarious position and Spain is under enormous pressure because of their heavy debt so would it be suicide to consider buying Spanish government bonds?
I guess my real question is: If you buy bonds in a very debt laden country like Greece or Spain, is there a REAL chance those countries can crumble completely financially, and if so, would a bond holder lose all of his money in that scenario?
And in your opinion is this scenario a realistic possibility? Or will European countries pay their bond holders no matter what happens financially in those countries over the next 30 years?
Is it something to consider as an investment? Or WAY TOO RISKY for you?
thanks,
Tyler
tylerrr - The 7% on Spanish bonds that you are referring to is their 10 year.
As to your other questions nobody knows for sure but yes, these countries could end up defaulting.
Keep in mind these countries gave up their monetary policy to the ECB so they cannot just buy their own bonds like we can.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Sovereign_default
Historically, there are quite a few defaults, full or partial, as per the list. Defaults often happen when there is a change of government. I have some minimal experience with Latin American debt workout in the '80s and it's not pretty.
@tylerr - There's also the currency risk... are you willing to make a bet that the Euro will be just as strong as the US dollar in 1-3-5-10 years?
Personally, I might take that gamble with Cdn$ or Aus$, but not the Euro. To invest in Euro bonds, I'll want a premium above just the risk of default.
Sold my 65 VIX puts (Strike 20)today that I bought about a month ago.
Also yesterday I sold about 20% of my GLD and replaced it with SLV. I also sold $20K of SPLV and replaced it with SPHB.
HAL's chart does look kinda nice.
Most of my money is now in a PP.
I've made 20% so far on BAC and I might buy some more for long term prospects.
Thinking of buying some GE. Dividend is solid.
Am I missing something? Pitney Bowes (PBI) has a 10% dividend and is trading at 50% less then it was in 08'.
I'm can handle risk and to me this looks like a decent play for both pps growth and locking in a solid dividend.
Any thoughts?
$1.31 of PBI's 2011 earnings came as the result of a settlement with the IRS. I'm not saying that's the sole reason for it's low share price, but there could be other things lurking, and you should be careful when calculating metrics based on 2011 earnings.
Thanks Chris. After a little more digging (not very far) it does appear that I got glassy eyed looking at that 10% dividend. It doesn't look like it will hold up for too much longer and unless the business model changes the pps doesn't deserve a rebound either.
PBI has a high yield because it has a falling share price. PBI, which manufactures postal metering equipment, relies on a robust U.S. Postal system for future earnings. In a climate where said service is losing billions and contemplating closed facilities, PBI's future earnings, and the dividend, are threatened. Avoid it like the plague.
