COVID-19

[jennypenny]

@Augustus--The WHO. The report I listened to (BBC World maybe?) was about the significant drop in MMR vaccines since the lockdowns began. The WHO is worried that it could lead to measles outbreaks. Ditto flu come fall if people are still avoiding medical facilities. As part of that report, they said the drop in immunizations was also disappointing because the WHO had recently reviewed that research and found it credible and said that others were now looking into the connection.

[jacob]

Preliminary results: (first half of a two part study)

A Spanish serology (IgM and IgG) study starting on 4/27 and sampling 70,000 people over 36,000 households all over Spain shows that 5% have been infected at some point with hotspot provinces coming in at 12-14%. 90% of these cases were never detected by the health care system in the first place. With the Spanish death count, this means that the IFR is 1-1.2% which is at the high end of similar numbers for other countries.

Sources:
https://www.reuters.com/article/us-heal ... SKBN22P2RP
https://english.elpais.com/society/2020 ... virus.html

Other facts: Spain has one of the highest death rates in the world if not the highest if we discount San Marino and Andorra as flukes (small countries, statistical noise) and Belgium as overcounting due to clinical diagnosis. They have also broken the curve since a couple of weeks ago.

[tonyedgecombe]

There was somewhat similar news from France, 4.4% of the population: https://medicalxpress.com/news/2020-05- ... swell.html

[Alphaville]

https://www.thelancet.com/pdfs/journals ... 1140-5.pdf

[jennypenny]

You sure about that? Because your entire post is essentially the Jeff Golds (WO) paper. Kawasaki disease, MMR, covid, etc. I found no mention of this on WHO website or major news outlets.

As I said, I heard the report on the radio, I believe on BBC World which is one of my presets, on my way home from the vet. They definitely said the WHO as it was part of the story about the decline in measles vaccinations. I actually hadn't seen the WO report until CS posted it.

If you think I'm wrong, or BBC world was wrong, or whatever, just ignore the post. I'm not interested in another argument. Decide for yourself.

[jennypenny]

Of course not, and the first time you asked me about it, I took it as fact-checking and answered you. But then you replied "you sure about that?" which struck me as argumentative since I'd already answered you. What more am I supposed to say? I relayed what I'd heard and from where. If that's not good enough for you, fair enough, but it's not my problem.

[Alphaville]

I had assumed that your answer would contain some kind of citation. When it didn't, I asked if you were sure about that, and presented evidence as to why you might want to be a bit more skeptical. Your post is almost word for word the Jeff Gold random internet dude research paper. I still cannot find a single post on the internet from a reputable source showing that MMR gives protection from covid. I'd be overjoyed if someone found a vaccine, but I'm not going to buy into something with no research to back it up.

i took 6 seconds to search "mmr covid"

https://duckduckgo.com/?q=mmr+covid&t=osx&ia=news
https://duckduckgo.com/?q=mmr+%22covid% ... osx&ia=web

and got a slew of results from british newspapers (the sun, daily mail, etc) citing a non peer reviewed paper from cambridge

link to paper is here:

https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101 ... 1.full.pdf

it is, however, not peer-reviewed, so a lot of open questions, but journalists have to report stuff.

file under "interesting" and "promising"

[classical_Liberal]

Deleted: I'm repeating myself from upthread and providing material for continuation of arguments. People are going to believe what they want. I need to avoid this thread. sorry.

[Tyler9000]

This is obviously spinning the most positive interpretation of an early experiment, but it's another interesting potential development:

Sorrento Therapeutics, Inc. announced today that its anti-SARS-CoV-2 antibody, STI-1499, demonstrated 100% inhibition of SARS-CoV-2 virus infection in an in vitro virus infection experiment at a very low antibody concentration.

https://markets.businessinsider.com/new ... 1029207032

And the CEO certainly isn't being shy about it. To the point where it sounds way too good to be true.

"We want to emphasize there is a cure. There is a solution that works 100 percent."

"As soon as it is infused, that patient is now immune to the disease. For the length of time, the antibody is in that system. So, if we were approved [by the FDA] today, everyone who gets that antibody can go back to work and have no fear of catching COVID-19."

https://www.foxnews.com/science/covid-c ... eakthrough

[ertyu]

uh. in vitro = in a test tube. this is no guarantee it will work in vivo - a.k.a. for treating and actual ill person

[jennypenny]

Deleted: I'm repeating myself from upthread and providing material for continuation of arguments. People are going to believe what they want. I need to avoid this thread. sorry.

It's not just about believing what you want to believe. Facts have certainly evolved over the course of the last few months, and I'm sure they will continue to change. (like what happened to the malaria drug that was supposed to help?) The MMR thing might look promising now but eventually turn out to be a bust, or not as helpful as it appears. I get that. I was still glad to see the WHO reviewed the material and didn't immediately call bullshit.

I also mentioned it because we're all keeping our own tally sheet of pros and cons to decide when it's ok to venture out. The list includes things like age, weight, underlying health issues, etc. The list also includes any positive considerations, like effectively wearing a mask or being able to shop at outdoor markets. For me, I'm also including things like the possible MMR link as a potential 'pro'. Things like getting an MMR booster or taking zinc and vitamin D are pretty cheap/easy. I know that ultimately they may not help, but I'm willing to try them considering the payoff is potentially huge compared to the limited downsides.

Some of us are pretty desperate not to spend the next year+ self-quarantining while waiting for a cure/vaccine.

[classical_Liberal]

@JP
I'm not interested in arguing with you. If the "x" was still available for me to have simply deleted my comment I would have, since it isn't I explained myself. It was not meant as an attack on you or anyone else, I simply want to stay out because I'm clearly not influencing anyone's opinion and wanted to avoid "stirring the pot" further.

[jennypenny]

I wasn't trying to argue with you. I felt bad you deleted your comment and (I thought) I was clarifying what I'd meant.

-----

I'll bow out. I have too much to do anyway. For the life of me I can't figure out why so many people are complaining that they're bored. Between gardening, sewing masks, and food prep/management, I barely have time for my normal routine.

[Ego]

Both MMR the BCG vaccine for TB are showing promise. The non-specific effects of the vaccinations may be the reason.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Non-speci ... f_vaccines

BCG is not normally used in the US but has been used in Mexico and many other countries.

https://www.nature.com/articles/s41577-020-0337-y

The long-term changes seen in innate immune cell phenotypes after BCG vaccination amount to a de facto induction of innate immune memory, which has been termed trained immunity. It has been hypothesized that induction of trained immunity is at least partly the mechanism through which BCG vaccination induces its beneficial effects. The idea here is that BCG leads to epigenetically trained populations of monocytes and/or natural killer cells, which most likely reside in the bone marrow. Upon challenge with pathogen-associated molecular patterns (PAMPs; which could be from bacteria or viruses) these innate immune cells then show an enhanced response, promoting host defense. This might explain why a vaccine for tuberculosis leads to protection against multiple pathogens.

and specific to Covid

One important aspect relates to the boosting of the innate immune response by BCG. Might this be deleterious, considering the fact that an exaggerated cytokine response has been associated with complications in patients with COVID-19 (ref.16)? We would argue that in healthy individuals vaccinated with BCG, in which innate antimicrobial mechanisms would be boosted by trained immunity, this is most likely to lead to inhibited viral replication, decreased viral loads and subsequently less inflammation and symptoms. This hypothesis is supported by the decrease in viraemia seen following yellow fever vaccination of individuals who were previously vaccinated with BCG15. By contrast, an initial defective antiviral response in some individuals at high risk (for example, older individuals) can result in high viral loads, stimulation of an inefficient systemic inflammation and severe disease. Breaking the loop of systemic inflammation could have beneficial effects in these patients.

We thus propose that induction of trained immunity by BCG could provide protection against COVID-19, but this hypothesis needs to be tested in rigorous randomized clinical trials

If BCG vaccination is not introduced into the US in the next year or so, I will be seeking it out elsewhere because I believe we will be seeing this kind of thing (Covid) more in the future.

The MMR booster seems wise to me. Anyone have any reasons why not?

Also, anyone with tips/tricks on how to get health insurance to pay for the MMR vaccination would be appreciated.

ETA: I've been trying to weasel the PPSV23 pneumonia vaccination out of my doctor for a while now with no luck. At the moment it is only recommended for those over 65.

https://www.cdc.gov/pneumococcal/vaccination.html

[Alphaville]

ok this thread got derailed again...

[JWJones]

Has anyone else noticed that chem-trailing seems to have stopped since the pandemic began? I still don't know what or why they do it (some interesting YouTube videos on the subject), but it ain't happening in our neck of the woods these days.

[Mister Imperceptible]

So... we spent 5-10 trillion dollars to bail out the 20-50 or so families that own the Federal Reserve.

fixed

So perhaps it was my link to Tverberg that started the derail.

Fearing for one’s life, one’s livelihood, or one’s savings are sure to trigger emotional responses.

Dr. Fisker requested a Just The Facts Ma’am approach to the thread. Not a virologist here so I have nothing to offer regarding the virus. My posts up thread intended to remind of the emergency powers taken by the government in the wake of 9/11 and the 2008 crash. Powers that have never gone away.

And not really sure what a few dozen NTs at the corner of the internet can do about it at all but the civil liberties angle is what I am watching.

[ertyu]

Has anyone else noticed that chem-trailing seems to have stopped since the pandemic began? I still don't know what or why they do it (some interesting YouTube videos on the subject), but it ain't happening in our neck of the woods these days.

For a while, it's been my (unsubstatiated) opinion that a lot of this type of fringe batshittery gets started by troll farms to fan up culture wars--that the dumb sheep that like and spread this type of thing around on facebook are separate from those who actually start it. I also noticed that a lot of the fringe stuff has lost steam and my theory has been that this is because the troll farms are now focusing on corona conspiracies.

[thrifty++]

Has anyone else noticed that chem-trailing seems to have stopped since the pandemic began? I still don't know what or why they do it (some interesting YouTube videos on the subject), but it ain't happening in our neck of the woods these days.

Maybe its because they are all focussing more on other suddenly more popular conspiracy theories like 5g and the "scamdemic".

What strikes me is that while most of the time conspiracy theorists go on about some huge and terrible thing taking place once there is an actual big and terrible thing going on (like the pandemic or climate change etc) they claim its all fake. Whats with that? Its like if there is any evidence of something then it must not exist?

[Seppia]

https://www.npr.org/sections/coronaviru ... g-pandemic
https://slate.com/news-and-politics/202 ... virus.html

50% unemployment, wow. No wonder people are talking civil war.

I do not know where they're getting their data.
Unemployment numbers come out with an approximate 1.5 months delay in italy.
This is the site for the italian institute for statistics, the only official source for this: https://www.istat.it/it/archivio/occupati+e+disoccupati

It shows, for March, unemployment at 8,4%, about the same as Feb.
While I obviously expect the numbers to become worse, I would also expect the numbers in italy (similarly to most of Europe) to be buch better than the american ones. It is very hard to fire people here, and we have already put in place massive "cassa integrazione", which is a situation where the company puts some employees "on freeze" and the state pays them about 70-80% of their salary.
I do not think these people are counted as unemployed, but even if they were they keep getting a wage.

As with all crisis, Europe will see much less economic hardship in the short term, but will also have a slower recovery compared to the USA.
In general the systems make it much better to be in the USA in times of prosperity, and in Europe in dire times.

It's the second time I hear that in Italy we are supposedly on the brink of civil war, but really that's not at all what we are seeing here. We do not have armed people in camo gear showing up in government buildings to "protest", for example.