Early Retirement Extreme Forums

Uhm, why don't you update one post instead of a new post all the time. I bet this thread would be a page or two if everyone did that.

Interesting CS. I'm not even sure why I didn't think of that haha but I updated my post.

Under 10% SWR now

1/1/2021 - 1.67% SWR

1/1/2011 - 120%
1/1/2012 - 80.0%
1/1/2013 - 58.5%
1/1/2014 - 36.7%
1/1/2015 - 20.7%
1/1/2016 - 14.4%
1/1/2017 - 8.8%
1/1/2018 - 6.4%
1/1/2019 - 4.2%
1/1/2020 - 3.2%
1/1/2021 - 1.3%

Well that was fun, time to increase spending and go in reverse.

2/1/2021 - 1.40%
3/1/2021 - 1.50%
4/1/2021 - 1.54%
5/1/2021 - 1.53%
6/1/2021 - 1.60%
7/1/2021 - 1.66%
8/1/2021 - 1.81%
9/1/2021 - 1.95%
10/1/2021 - 2.09%
11/1/2021 - 2.16%
12/1/2021 - 2.35%
1/1/2022 - 2.57%

@CS, that's a good point. For 2021 I'll just update this post monthly. Going to be interesting to document the psychological response to reversing direction.

nomadscientist wrote: ↑

Sat Apr 04, 2020 3:12 pm

Based on my actual 2019 spending and 1st Jan 2020 networth... 18.1%.

11.3%

2020 actual spending and 1st Jan 2021 networth

About 1/6 of this was car costs and a medical bill which I hope do not recur.

Current SWR at 10.89%

SWR is computed assuming constant spending at which I'm comfortable. Actual spending for 2020 was lower, if used it would bring the number down to 9.5%.

Jan. 2016: 73.35% (monthly expenses * 12 / NW on Jan. 31, 2016)
2016: 48.13% (total expenses for year / NW at end of year)
2017: 41.45% (same)
2018: 24.36% (same)
2019: 16.05% (same)
2020: 16.35% (same) (stupid pick-up truck; removing a couple outlier months the number is 12.65%)
2021 to date: 9.38%* (Jan. + Feb. mo. expenses * 6 / NW on Feb. 28, 2021)

*Single Digits!!!

Retired April 2017 at age 51 with 625k.

My average swr the last 4 years has been 2.3%. In 2 of those years I had surgery and I moved 540 miles away. My highest swr was 2.6% but 2 of the last 3 years including 2020 I was just over 2.1%.

My swr in 2020 was 1.275% of my current net worth or 2.12% of my net worth 4 years ago when I retired. My swr includes everything including taxes and health insurance. I pay $0 in state and federal income taxes and $0 in health insurance premiums with ACA.

2Birds1Stone wrote: ↑

Mon Jan 04, 2021 6:40 am

1/1/2011 - 120%
1/1/2012 - 80.0%
1/1/2013 - 58.5%
1/1/2014 - 36.7%
1/1/2015 - 20.7%
1/1/2016 - 14.4%
1/1/2017 - 8.8%
1/1/2018 - 6.4%
1/1/2019 - 4.2%
1/1/2020 - 3.2%
1/1/2021 - 1.3%

Well that was fun, time to increase spending and go in reverse.

2/1/2021 - 1.4%

@CS, that's a good point. For 2021 I'll just update this post monthly. Going to be interesting to document the psychological response to reversing direction.

Damn that's amazing progress in 10 years. I'd love to know how much was due to reduced costs and how much was due to increased savings

@thai_tong, a healthy dose of both.

From 2017-2020 spending decreased by ~65-70% while maintaining a 75-80% savings rate. Prior to that, the percentages move much faster from even slow accumulation. The extremely low spending which made a 1.3% WR possible for 2020 would not be something easy to recreate consistently. Therefor we are heading in the opposite direction for the next ~1 year.

4/1/21: 3.8% - planning to pull the plug in less than 2 years

Rough estimates below and biased to the high side.

6/1/2016 2.5%
1/1/2018 1.5%
1/1/2019 2.5%
1/1/2020 1.0%
1/1/2021 0.8%
1/1/2022 0.6%

2020/08/01 - 34,3%
2021/07/01 - 13,6%

Calculated using my 6 month average monthly spending and current net worth.
I think I'm getting there

<4.5%

Adventurous version of me would've probably already pulled the plug. Conservative version of me who's in charge wants 3.5%. That's another couple of years or thereabouts.

2020 -> 29%
2021 -> 22% (using TTM)

Current SWR at 8.30% (down from 10.89% in Jan this year).

I'll contribute:

9/2021: 125%
2/2022: 79%

.8% last I checked. Was 2-3% 1 year ago and 3-5% 2 years ago.

1/1/2011 - 120%
1/1/2012 - 80.0%
1/1/2013 - 58.5%
1/1/2014 - 36.7%
1/1/2015 - 20.7%
1/1/2016 - 14.4%
1/1/2017 - 8.8%
1/1/2018 - 6.4%
1/1/2019 - 4.2%
1/1/2020 - 3.2%
1/1/2021 - 1.3%
1/1/2022 - 2.6%

2/1/2022 - 2.62%

New year, new post to update monthly.....current projections show SWR will level off just a hair under 4% by end of year.

1.48% for 2021. That includes stimulus checks, so 2022 will probably be slightly higher, but still under 2%.

Hard to update monthly because I have a housing expense for only part of the year and will owe deferred income taxes for another year.