Trump - Clown Genius

[Dragline]

Better check those emails to look for signs of Trump. Otherwise, you can put that in the "I don't like what's happening so there must be a conspiracy" bucket. For every coin that says "conspiracy" on one side, there is a picture of somebody whining/complaining "this can't be happening because it doesn't fit my narrative of how the world works" on the reverse.

This video is interesting as to how Trump has been able to marshal the new media while his rivals fumble with the old: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=FU9iJSnGgCo

Although the second half belongs in that relationship thread.

[Ego]

I thought this was an interesting take on the Trump/Hillary dynamic.

http://www.nytimes.com/2016/03/09/opini ... trump.html

But even if his support is weakening, Democrats take Trump lightly at their peril. He is still sitting with three aces that he hasn’t played yet. They could all come out in the general election.

One ace is that if he wins the nomination he will have no problem moving to the center to appeal to independents and minorities. He will have no problem playing the moderate unifier — and plenty of people will buy it, saying: “Why not give him a chance? He says he can make us winners.” .... Have you never read “The Art of the Deal”?

His second ace is that given the position he staked out on terrorism, if, God forbid, there is a major terrorist attack on our soil between now and Election Day, Trump will reap enormous political benefits. Watch out. I’ve seen how one well-timed terrorist attack tilted an Israeli election.

His third ace is that he will indeed go after Hillary Clinton in ways you never heard before and that will delight and bring back a lot of disaffected Republicans, whose hatred of Hillary knows no bounds. “Did you hear what Trump said about Hillary last night? That she was ‘Bill’s enabler!’ Finally! I will vote for him just for that.” Again, beware.

It would be Shakespearean if there was a conspiracy and it grew out of control of the conspirators.

[jennypenny]

IIRC, Ivanka and Chelsea are BFFs, so maybe they are all in cahoots.

[Spartan_Warrior]

I mean... "I love the uneducated"? That's some Guinness World Record-level trolling, right there.

It would go down as the greatest performance art satire in history.

[Dragline]

Numbers! Numbers! Although I wish there was a link to the raw data:

http://www.nytimes.com/2016/03/13/upsho ... p=cur&_r=0

I thought this was interesting:

"Likewise, a better predictor of Trump outperformance than a standard-issue economic indicator like the unemployment rate is a high proportion of working-age adults who aren’t working (the correlation was strong for both men and women).

To be counted as unemployed, a person must have actively looked for work in the last month. But “not working” is a broader definition that would also include, for example, people who are discouraged by what seem like grim job prospects; who are living at home tending to the house; or who are disabled and stay home while receiving government assistance.

Nationally, 23 percent of the 25-to-54-year-old population was not working in March, up from 18 percent in 2000. The areas where Trump is most popular appear to be at the forefront of that trend."

So its non-working Generation X where Trump gets a lot of support. Sounds like a bunch of early retirees, eh?

[GandK]

G and I will be voting in the OH Republican primary on Tuesday. We had a conversation last night that went something like this:

G: "Who will you be voting for?"
K: "I'm still not sure. How about you?"
G: "Cruz. He's the only Republican who consistently beats Hillary in national polls."

I didn't believe him. He pulled up all the 2016 head-to-head polls. Turns out he was right! We speculated about why. Then:

K: "Maybe so, but I can't vote for Cruz."
G: "I thought he was your best match philosophically, according to that poll thing!" (ISideWith.com)
K: "He is, but he's also a self-important jackass."
G: "So? What exactly are you looking for in a President?"
K: [Being NF, I waxed idealistic for several minutes.]
G: "We're voting for a president, K, not for a Messiah."
K: "But Trump is base, Cruz is a jerk, Rubio is an interventionist and Kasich is a RINO! There are no good options. Ugh! I miss Scott Walker."
G: "So what? I miss Jeb! Look... I'm voting for Cruz because no one else can beat Hillary and it's crucial that she lose."
K: "Maybe I can I vote for Bernie, then."
G: "How important is this marriage to you?"

By then, we were laughing. But... I am still undecided.

[Tyler9000]

Assuming Trump is the republican nominee, I predict Hillary's reported lead in the polls will evaporate quickly. Everything changes once you only have two options left.

What many people don't realize is that Trump has tapped into genuine feelings that many people are afraid to vocalize out of fear of social retaliation. That phenomenon has the tendency to skew polls, where people say what they think others want to hear only to vote a different way in private. But once the dam is broken and it becomes acceptable to be honest, an unexpected "preference cascade" can emerge.

Maybe this can be a book club option: Private Truths, Public Lies: The Social Consequences of Preference Falsification

[henrik]

Maybe this can be a book club option: Private Truths, Public Lies: The Social Consequences of Preference Falsification

It already was, a while ago. Please feel free to add your thoughts!

[Dragline]

G and I will be voting in the OH Republican primary on Tuesday. We had a conversation last night that went something like this:

G: "Who will you be voting for?"
K: "I'm still not sure. How about you?"
G: "Cruz. He's the only Republican who consistently beats Hillary in national polls."

I didn't believe him. He pulled up all the 2016 head-to-head polls. Turns out he was right! We speculated about why. Then:

If you want Cruz to get the nomination, wouldn't the strategic thing to do in Ohio is vote for Kasich? Cruz is too far behind there to win and it's winner take all, so the most important thing for Cruz in Ohio is that Trump does not get those delegates. Kasich is the only other candidate that can realistically win in Ohio, but is unlikely to collect enough delegates to beat Cruz overall.

[Ego]

http://www.theatlantic.com/politics/arc ... sm/473538/

It seems unlikely that Trump has read the political-science tract, Us Against Them: The Ethnocentric Foundations of American Opinion, but his campaign sometimes seems devoted to proving its authors correct. They used extensive polling data to argue that white, ethnocentric voters vigorously oppose means-tested programs they believe directly transfer wealth to racial minorities—food stamps, welfare, TANF. On the other hand, those same voters are also more likely to support universal social-insurance programs like Social Security and Medicare.

[jennypenny]

"...They used extensive polling data to argue that white, ethnocentric voters vigorously oppose means-tested programs they believe directly transfer wealth to racial minorities—food stamps, welfare, TANF. On the other hand, those same voters are also more likely to support universal social-insurance programs like Social Security and Medicare."

But aren't they making assumptions about why those people oppose means-tested programs? Many people on the forum have questioned the usefulness and effectiveness of welfare programs while supporting universal programs including everything from healthcare to UBI. Are we racist?

Maybe we can count the number of trailers in the nation and get a better idea of the vote totals? When people read articles like these, how many get a sense of snobbery? I'm not trying to be snarky here, but I think everybody knows the working class is supporting Trump. Just as most know Blacks are supporting Clinton/Democrats almost exclusively. Where are the daily articles about the education level ,employment numbers, and housing situation of them? If the press wants to influence this election towards Clinton, then they need to try a new tactic besides the implied message that only dumb people would vote for Trump. Just to be clear, I am attacking the article and not you. It is just tiresome at this stage of the game.

+1 I haven't been a Trump supporter, but I'd vote for him at this point to show support for the bulk of his supporters who are getting no respect. Even Cruz is referring to them as "low information voters" now.


I like the way Taleb summed up Trump's support ... "People are not voting for Trump (or Sanders). People are just voting, finally, to destroy the establishment." I think that's the majority of Trump's support. I've resigned myself to that, and honestly, I think I'm ok with it.

[Ego]

Many people on the forum have questioned the usefulness and effectiveness of welfare programs while supporting universal programs including everything from healthcare to UBI. Are we racist?

Hah. Good point!

[jennypenny]

Many people on the forum have questioned the usefulness and effectiveness of welfare programs while supporting universal programs including everything from healthcare to UBI. Are we racist?

Hah. Good point!

Must be a blue moon.


The protests at Trump events can only bolster his numbers. I am fearful of what the reaction would be if something happened to him though.

[GandK]

I am absolutely nauseated by the snubbing of the First Amendment that I saw in the Trump protestors. A lot of the things he says are bigoted, but preventing free speech and free discourse will end up biting us all in the end. The slippery slope of preventing speech you don't like or agree with is that the people with the biggest guns will eventually win the argument. In trying to prevent Fascism, they are unwittingly embracing it.

[GandK]

If you want Cruz to get the nomination, wouldn't the strategic thing to do in Ohio is vote for Kasich? Cruz is too far behind there to win and it's winner take all, so the most important thing for Cruz in Ohio is that Trump does not get those delegates. Kasich is the only other candidate that can realistically win in Ohio, but is unlikely to collect enough delegates to beat Cruz overall.

I shared your observation with G, who spent the next several minutes harrumphing over various news sites before pronouncing this good advice that he intends to follow. FYI.

I'm still unconvinced that Cruz as the nominee is even a desirable thing. But I think I'm slap out of options.

[Spartan_Warrior]

From what I can tell, the Trump protesters were exercising First Amendment rights, not suppressing them.

[GandK]

From what I can tell, the Trump protesters were exercising First Amendment rights, not suppressing them.

I'm talking about the rejoicing at having "stopped Trump" from having the campaign rally.

Maria Hernandez, a 25-year-old community organizer, broke out into dance as a Trump campaign staffer announced that the rally had been canceled.

"I've never been more proud of my city," Hernandez told CNN.

That's one of many examples. It's one thing to object to what someone is saying when they speak. It's another thing entirely to rejoice at having shut down speech.

[Dragline]

I definitely agree with this: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=5TK8szkB2Qc

[vexed87]

https://theintercept.com/2016/03/10/don ... -rhetoric/

[GandK]

I thought this was insightful. It sums up a lot of my thoughts.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=awnrdye9zTg

Yes. That was a great analysis.