Loutfard's journal

[loutfard]

I much appreciated your comment, FunkyFreedom.

While I'm not a smartphone user, I know people potentially interested in the nutrition app you recommend. My wife does a more basic thing - energy intake accounting - with a free and open source Android app. Not sure if it is Food-Tracker or Waistline, but she is very happy with it.

[loutfard]

My wife at the kitchen table: "Look at what a feast we're eating. You must love this."

On the table:
- a super healthy smoothie with cheap fruits and vegetables mostly from the well-hidden wholesaler down the hill, and cashews from another wholesaler
- a cheap, delicious and healthy vegan carrot spread made by my wife
- bread from the best bakery in the city, sourced through a food waste app
- vegetarian - probably vegan - lunch leftovers from the school around the corner
- home made broccoli soup
- pancakes made with soy milk and eggs from my parents' chickens

Her loving smile was reciprocated.

[loutfard]

Looking at pensions from a macro perspective, I discovered the Aaron condition today, an interesting concept in the context of funded versus pay-as-you-go pensions. I'm not going to try and summarise it myself. There's a good summary on page 22 of https://www.cpb.nl/sites/default/files/ ... ow-old.pdf :

"The Aaron condition (see Aaron (1966)) shows how the rate of return,
the growth rate of labor productivity, and the growth rate of the labor
force affect the relative merits of PAYG versus funded schemes. The
long-run return to PAYG schemes depends on the growth rate of labor
income determining the growth of the contribution base. The return on
funded schemes, in contrast, depends on the rate of return on financial
assets. Hence, in the long run, funding can offer higher retirement
benefits if the rate of return on financial capital exceeds the growth rate
of labor income (i.e. the sum of the growth rate of labor productivity
and the growth rate of employment). However, PAYG schemes are
always more favorable to the first generation because they can offer
pensions benefits without having to build up assets."

Nothing immediately actionable, but I find several parts of the document super interesting. It cuts through so many slogans in a surprisingly balanced and informative way. It feels like zooming out and providing some very welcome context to eremites regarding (early) retirement financing.

[loutfard]

I keep on thinking how to encourage my wife to explore higher up the ERE Wheaton scale. Life forced her to a start in scarcity. A clear Wheaton level 1. I see her mindset as level ~3.5 now, with some strong upwards excursions towards optimisation. I very much appreciate how she skipped most of two levels. That was thanks to her great mental flexibility.

Financially, I make sure we run a tight ship. We're at 60-70% savings rate on a modest income slightly above median. My wife approves of that.

The mental gap between us on ERE still is rather large though. Not impossible to bridge, but difficult at times. I tend to think of my mindset as having evolved the last two years towards roughly level ~5.8. Some of my excursions upwards have caused unnecessary friction. I was trying to go too fast to keep her on board. With some others, I managed to encouraging her along.

I have two experiments upcoming to try and encourage her:
- Podcasts. She's a listener more than a reader. I am looking for accessible content just above her current Wheaton level. Think MMM or YMOYL. Those should encourage her to make a manageable mental jump, Any recommendations?
- She is coming along to a cheap, safe, interesting, tropical place. Trip and stay for both of us almost entirely paid by conf organisers. This is very much a long serendipity game. The trip might reinforce her sense of security. Experiencing - not just knowing- that we can do this might give her confidence to climb the Wheaton scale. It might also widen her view. Plus I wouldn't mind an experiment a few years down the line, spending winter there and summer in the Baltics. Having visited would certainly reduces the mental gap for her to cross...

[thef0x]

I understand the impulse to want to bring her along on the exciting ride of discovery you're enjoying in your life because it's awesome and progress feels so good. We all want to share how we're changing for the better (and I bet she sees it in you -- it might even intimidate her).

One thing I have noticed in my own progression in life is that everyone goes at their own pace and that pace can change dramatically, often times at "rock bottoms" but also during plenty of peaks too. It can sometimes feel lonely or even frustrating when you have the energy and enthusiasm to bring others up with you, but they're not particularly interested (for now). Both sides of the coin are felt (massive stoke & lonely at the last mile) and are legitimate.

I guess what I'd suggest is to love her where she is, as she is, because of who she is to you. This is what I mean:

My wife at the kitchen table: "Look at what a feast we're eating. You must love this."

On the table:
- a super healthy smoothie with cheap fruits and vegetables mostly from the well-hidden wholesaler down the hill, and cashews from another wholesaler
- a cheap, delicious and healthy vegan carrot spread made by my wife
- bread from the best bakery in the city, sourced through a food waste app
- vegetarian - probably vegan - lunch leftovers from the school around the corner
- home made broccoli soup
- pancakes made with soy milk and eggs from my parents' chickens

Her loving smile was reciprocated.

What a beautiful, romantic experience. Embrace these sorts of dynamics and energies, is what I say, and lead through example into a world she might also finds exciting and adventurous, meaning .. keep going! Share with her both the excitement for that tropical destination and all of the fun you had building that possibility-turned-actuality long term.

One of the most loving things my wife says to me is "You did this" while we're sitting at the dinner table, soaking our life together up, just appreciating it deeply. I want that for you and everyone on this forum because it's so gratifying, affirming, and such a welcome reprieve from what can otherwise be odd looks and muffled commentary about how weird XYZ thing is that you/we/us here are doing (IME).

And what better way to get gifts than to give them. So please keep telling her "You did this" with that big satisfied grin gazing upon that feast. Keep leading your way through discovery and transcendence while you give her a squeeze and bring her along (if she wants).

To me, it sounds like you needn't change a thing, except maybe to just embrace her more for who she is today, and where she's coming from. Love that she can change and has changed already without needing more from her.

And just keep being you, truly, without fear that you might be a little bit lonely/frustrated about where you are (because you want her right by your side). She can see you up the mountain. Just because she's lower than you doesn't mean she cannot witness your own ascension; perhaps it's even more evident and exciting from her view.

As I'm getting older, I'm realizing the only person I can really move is myself. So I keep moving and wave lovingly at those around me who are cheering me on, like she is to you.

IMO, that smile is all of it man, you already have it. How cool is that.

[loutfard]

To me, it sounds like you needn't change a thing, except maybe to just embrace her more for who she is today, and where she's coming from. Love that she can change and has changed already without needing more from her.

...

IMO, that smile is all of it man, you already have it. How cool is that.

You probably hit the nail on the head. Thank you for your perspective.

[loutfard]

To me, it sounds like you needn't change a thing, except maybe to just embrace her more for who she is today, and where she's coming from. Love that she can change and has changed already without needing more from her.
...
IMO, that smile is all of it man, you already have it. How cool is that.

For the past few days, I made a conscious effort in the direction you suggested. Even within this short time span, we have made some significant progress. It seems like extra breathing space and more explicit trust were crucial ingredients.

[thef0x]

Amazing and so pleased for you both.

More questions:

"For whom else should I change my approach in this new light?"

Speaking personally, I really like having it "all on my shoulders". I'm a bit of a control-oriented guy in that way, as I want/demand the power to quell my anxiety via personal action. But I know that my own "CEO" type behavior towards others can be intense, burdensome, and stressful -- definitely to myself as well.

So it also makes me wonder: would you benefit from bringing that same mentality toward your own pursuits and your most authentic self? the person you're building to become.

What would your 70 year old self advise, looking back?

\\

Again, I'm so stoked for you guys. The phrase "slow is smooth and smooth is fast" seems an appropriate description of the "software update".

[loutfard]

"For whom else should I change my approach in this new light?"

Not too many people I presume. Maybe one of my parents. Not expecting progress from them, but still...

So it also makes me wonder: would you benefit from bringing that same mentality toward your own pursuits and your most authentic self? the person you're building to become.

What would your 70 year old self advise, looking back?

The answer is obviously yes. I already do this more and better than so many others, but this certainly is a point I can improve.

[loutfard]

A rather unpleasant cocktail has made me a bit tired and slow recently:
1) I've not yet fully recovered from past news media overconsumption.
2) I have an unusually strong emotional attachment to abstract things like justice, peace and liberty.
3) Our strong Baltic attachment is under extra tension due to recent geopolitical events.

Here's what I/we have done or not about this so far:
1) I stopped news consumption and relied on others to relay of "important" news. This has worked well, until too important news to miss came in through friends that wasn't really too important to miss. I probably need to better define "too important to miss", as immediately personally actionable perhaps.

2) I have no good way yet to deal with this aspect of who I am. I'd better find ways to thrive in a western world that seems to be drifting further away from the values I cherish. Maybe I need to learn and mock more sharply, Henry style. I've always noticed how the political satire in the local carnival made me smile. Probably the most anarchist in the world happens in my native area - . Maybe there are other options. Hints welcome.

3) My wife and I have explicitly mentally prepared for a few things. We realise we'll probably have to write off our house in the Baltics at some point in the future. We also realise we might have to host Baltic family and friends as refugees. Maybe this is enough, or maybe we should say a proper goodbye to the Baltics.

As for effects on our ERE trajectory, it seems like the fear is bringing a sense of urgency to my wife, and with that growing willingness to change.

P.S. Rereading this, it might sound like I am unhappy. Not so. I'm just much less energetic than usual. This geopolitical situation is very much like a growing hole in my diesel tank. Certainly better than a nail in a lithium battery pack!

[sky]

I have experienced a lot of dismay with recent events. My image of Europe as a land of peaceful countries working together and constantly improving is now overcome by the threat of war. That threat was always there, I just did not recognize it. Given the history of Europe, 80 years of peace is a good run. I am trying to reorient my thought model to the new reality. Should I take on the warrior role and prepare to defend my people? Should I build a walled garden and enjoy life until someone comes and knocks down the walls? Should I move somewhere remote to escape the chaos? All these ideas have gone through my mind. At the moment I continue to live my life as before and am hoping to wait it out, perhaps in a few years there will be a new clear direction.

[NewBlood]

I relate to a lot of this loutfard.

Rereading this, it might sound like I am unhappy. Not so. I'm just much less energetic than usual. This geopolitical situation is very much like a growing hole in my diesel tank.

I think the goal of some of the players out there is to demoralize and create apathy and normalization. I try hard not to let the cynical defeatist in me win. work in progress...

[chenda]

I'm feeling very positive about the future of Europe, almost excited about the future possibilities. We can't discuss the politics of course but I personally would have no problem buying property in your lovely country

[Violets]

Podcasts. She's a listener more than a reader. I am looking for accessible content just above her current Wheaton level. Think MMM or YMOYL. Those should encourage her to make a manageable mental jump, Any recommendations?

~~This is late, and perhaps not something you're looking for anymore, but I recommend the choose fi podcast...It's pretty Enjoyable. I listen to it when I hike, sometimes. It's on Spotify, and probably other places. I think their official intro is episode 100 or something, but it covers a lot of broad fi related topics. It's not intense or hard to process.

[Jean]

You might have to write off your house, you might not.
I see several forces not ready to let it happen. This is beyond our agencies, so preparing a little bit for the case is probably all you can do.

[loutfard]

Our trip to Bangkok did a lot of good. A few random observations:
- Kind strangers. Random locals went above and beyond to help us, again and again. The only loud and obnoxious people were not Thai.
- Traffic was quite civilised. This went against my low expectations.
- Lots of young male Russian adults seem to be residing there since 2022.
- Traditional street food comes with minimal packaging if any. Anything supermarket comes packaged in many more layers than in Europe.

[ertyu]

https://frugalhedonism.com/downloads/

This but as an audiobook for the wife -- and for anyone. The Art of Frugal Hedonism by by Annie Raser-Rowland and Adam Grubb. Give it a read first, I guess, but what I like about it as the focus on living a rich and fulfilling life first. A lot of engineering-type approaches to finances can come across as soulless cheapskatery to someone who doesn't value optimization for optimization's sake -- why are we depriving ourselves of this? This book is steeped in the premise that frugality and deprivation aren't synonymous. You could also read it together and discuss which parts you can relate to, and which fall flat.

[loutfard]

@ertyu Thank you for you recommendation. My dear wife now has the audio book.

Of note is that very few countries have persisted and the nation-state situation is a lot more fluid than commonly assumed.

How would one stress test one's investment portfolio's robustness and resilience against geopolitical strain? Is there good literature on that?

[Jean]

Considering nice locals in Thailland.
I was in a neighbourghing country many years ago with my gf, and we noticed that the locals were extra nice to us. By extra i mean nicer than to other tourists.
At the time, we attributed it to our clothing choices, that showed about the same amount of skin that the local did.
I can see you being carefull about avoiding skin cancer.
I'de like to know if you made any observation in that direction.

[jacob]

How would one stress test one's investment portfolio's robustness and resilience against geopolitical strain? Is there good literature on that?

Scenario planning along with a good dose of "it CAN happen here/to me" when thinking it through and doing it from a mindset that a portfolio is not just a bunch of papers but represent claims on real people and real stuff.

Problems to consider:
Capital controls (both out as well as back in).
Confiscation (making an asset illegal to hold)
Hair cuts.
Big changes in tax rates.
Sanctions/countersanctions.
Tariffs/countertariffs.
Devaluation.
Boycotts.
Nationalization.
Privatization (lowball buyouts)
Outright destruction.