Early Retirement Extreme Forums

I can't believe banks are up so much. Wasn't Clinton supposed to be good news for banks too?

The banks always win.

Munis also look pretty attractive.

Yeah, I bought some Wells Fargo very close to it's recent bottom and I'm doing well the last few days.

Agreed on munis. Had a whole bunch of price target alerts fall yesterday and today on muni ETFs.

well it's hard for me to pull the trigger on things at the moment. I look at some attractive picks and then fear the "big one" that might come eventually. My current portfolio (probably closest to Ivy) was up 4% over S&P in the last year until right before the election (though it doesn't count my Bitcoins; just waiting on a Bitcoin ETF to come out so I can track it manually in all these websites). Post election it looks like I'm back to only up 1%..

My general thought is shifting stocks from US to international. Look more into currency trades (short dollar). Consider some individual plays or sectors like BIDU, CCJ, GE/BOTZ/VIS.

Banking is surprising. My guess is they are planning to somewhat Burn & Loot the public/government. The only thing they fear, I think, is stuff like Bitcoin (so they are in the early stages to join that movement and adapt).

I'd recommend anyone who is interested in more discretionary (meaning not full/blind-market) investing to check into a heat during closing for the next few/several days. Usually these kinds of lessons take more longer to learn while having a much higher noise/signal ratio. Currently, investors are getting full-value (ha!) for their educational dollars.

https://finviz.com/map.ashx

However, make sure you're not getting fooled by individual company or event news, so if something turns out unexpected, go to that company and see if there was a major announcement for the given day.

For me it's more like another lesson in the seeming impossibility of profitable AND moral investing.

I'm increasing my exposure to industrial robots.

I am thinking that shortly after his inauguration may be the best time to buy AMZN, FB, APPL and GOOG. They are already dragging from lack of interest, but the short-term politics has nothing to do with their businesses long-term.

Agreed on tech. AMZN is really getting it right now and I'm really hopping AAPL continues to go down, as the next phone is probably the one everyone will want (looks like lots of changes including physical).

Today's open was small opposite moves of everything that has happened suggesting a new plateau has been reached.

jacob wrote:Today's open was small opposite moves of everything that has happened suggesting a new plateau has been reached.

Agreed.

The trend of the smaller cap equities vastly outperforming the larger companies seems to be continuing. S&P500 is down, meanwhile the Russel 2000 is soaring. This usually doesn't happen.

@chicago81 -- My only guess is that it's in anticipation of Trump relaxing rules on smaller businesses and renegotiating trade deals, but I find some of the moves this week puzzling.

Big Government and Big Regulation give the inside track to big corporations, one of the ironies of the belief that more government and more rules will somehow level the playing field. I have no idea if anticipation of less government and fewer rules is why we're having this short burst of relative outperformance of small-caps in the wake of Trump's win. History is full of periods where small-cap out performs large, and many authorities believe that small-cap outperformance over time is a consistent, dependable phenomenon. IIRC small-caps had taken a beating in recent weeks and generally lagged large-caps since 2007-2009, so at some point a reversal is arguably expected. Hard to draw much of a conclusion from less than a week's worth of data other than to say maybe the speculators speculated wrong about the election and are busy re-speculating about the future, perhaps correctly, perhaps not.

More of last week. Financials, Cons Disc, Industrials are all up again. Dow 19K look plausible?! Bond proxies continue their fall and seem to be getting back to their pre-run up levels.

I am hoping for a pullback in the sectors that have jumped, since they have jumped so quickly.

Main thing keeping me from taking any drastic measures (selling off) is the assurance that "capitalism" will prevail. Truly a psychological test..

On the other thread, there was some talk about Thiel (gay, Libertarian, strategy master, etc). He is the wildcard Trump earpiece, I think.

For Thiel's stance on some things, see: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=PsXFwy6gG_4 (lots of related videos in the sidebar to continue your watching)

He could be the explanation that certain tech stocks are going down..

I'm so confused and have no idea how to make money on this yet. Frustrating.

I guess the picture I've formed is that the first few days after election gave us a flash glimpse of where the money wants to go and will in the medium term. Since it happened so quickly, I think there is going to be a pullback over the next few months but then start flowing that way again. Financials were already going that way since inflation is ticking up and wages are rising. Materials would also benefit from this.

We'll see how it goes. Keep in mind I've only been doing this for a year now.

My gamble will be to take some short term profit on this Trump president-elect market after thanksgiving and then make a few bets that he will not win the electoral college. The big unknown in this scenario is who (3rd place finisher) do the GOP faithless electors want to put to the House to be chosen over Trump? Also there would be the air of uncertainty with Trump losing and if the 3rd place man is not a clear favourite going into the House.