Time to be wrong about the future: what is your best prediction about what 2025 would look like?

[loutfard]

The risk of Russian tanks within the next 5 years n Warsaw, Prague, Bucharest or Helsinki would fall considerably if the cease fire is signed. That should definitely help the markets of countries which border with Russia.

I respectfully disagree with this train of thought to the extent your prediction reaches beyond 2025. A ceasefire in .ua could benefit markets short term. It could also free up resources for violent disruption elsewhere on the borders of Russia, and as such influence markets negatively medium term.

[chenda]

I respectfully disagree with this train of thought to the extent your prediction reaches beyond 2025. A ceasefire in .ua could benefit markets short term. It could also free up resources for violent disruption elsewhere on the borders of Russia, and as such influence markets negatively medium term.

Jacob has asked that we don't discuss geopolitics so whilst I have a lot of opinions on this we should probably leave it here

[loutfard]

Jacob has asked that we don't discuss geopolitics so whilst I have a lot of opinions on this we should probably leave it here

I might not have succeeded sufficiently at keeping Jacob's wish in mind when posting, but I tried:
- I tried to stay very close to the topic of 2025 portfolio impact predictions only.
- I tried not to express any political opinion while hopefully still adding a useful view to the predictions.
- I slept on this comment for a night.
- I preemptively scrapped a second remark that I thought wouldn't make the bar of avoiding political expression.

Jacob, should you feel my contributions to this thread didn't meet your criteria, please feel free to remove them. In which case, my apologies for the inconvenience caused.

[sky]

There will be conflict in Europe.

The internet will be flooded with AI messages exchanging misinformation. Humans will begin to withdraw from the internet as we know it today.

After a few setbacks, the US financial markets will remain in a frothy bubblelicious state punctuated by business failures of older industry.

Homelessness will increase, as will the percentage of homes that are vacant.

There will be intense conflict within the Republican Party on which conspiracy theory best aligns with party dogma.

Kleptocracy will become the new form of American government. New billionaires will be created by our kleptocratic system.

Inflation will devalue the $USD however the $USD will remain strong against other currencies.

Fossil consumption will fall 10%. The US government will try to stablilize the economy by coordinating industrial and energy production through quotas and directives, but efforts will not be helpful because the rise of solar/wind/batteries will completely change the direction of the economy.

Chinese companies will move highly automated industrial production to the US and Mexico to avoid tariffs.

The United States government will nationalize at least one sector of the economy. Candidates are the health, energy and automotive sectors.

US manufacturing will flounder with some business failures but many US companies will become highly profitable. New technologies will be led by new startups while legacy dies on the vine.

Sun rich areas will boom due to low energy cost. Globally, sun rich areas which do not try to regulate against electrification will lead in economic growth.

[jacob]

I predict that misinformation and anger as well as anger resulting from misinformation and divisiveness resulting from that anger will see a resurgence.
I predict the increase will be strong enough to lead to people breaking ties with friends, family, and communities.

Please help me avoid that by not adding any fuel to the fire. I've already had to delete one post in this thread.

I'm allowing some political content here because it's pertinent to various predictions but debates over political matters are discouraged.

[Jean]

I was already wrong. Elon didn't massively play POE2, he payed someone to level his account for him

[ffj]

Fun exercise but it's kind of hard to predict the future without the option of discussing politics.

There will be change. Why? I can't tell you why, it might upset someone. They'll call it misinformation and complain.

A better exercise would be to make your predictions for whatever time frame and then return to the arguments and discuss why one was right or wrong and if their particular sources of information were credible or not after that time frame had expired. That way everybody could learn from others. Lots of benefits to be had, everything from psychology, influence of peers/location, news sources, generational biases, personality type, endless really.

Everybody would have to behave however. They would have to explain why they believed what they believed and own up if they were wrong. And explore why they were wrong without defensiveness. And others would have to respect when one was correct.

Is this too much to ask?

[theanimal]

Prediction (level of confidence)
- The US dollar remains strong, finishing above 2024 level (95%)
-Canada remains a sovereign nation (95%)
-US and world demand for oil sets new highs (90%}
-Opiod deaths and other deaths of despair continue to drop (80%)
-The US maintains an annual budgetary deficit (65%)
-Memory stocks go bonkers as companies start to focus on local AI within smartphones and other devices (60%)
-US domestic and international natural gas prices finally converge with the Permian basin passing its peak and new export facilities coming online. (40%)
-Greeenland becomes a US territory (35%)

[IlliniDave]

Zuckerburg dismantling his Orwellian 'fact' checkers was not one I had on my bingo card.

[Bankai]

We are still in the early stages of a great geopolitical upheaval that will likely take several years to about two decades (this is how long it usually took historically) before a new world order emerges. In chaotic times like these any predictions, especially very specific ones as to outcomes and timescales, are brave indeed. However, as these changes are driven by two revisionist powers (Russia and the US) whose elites decided that the previous system stopped serving their interest, we can deduct at least some general directions from their actions to date.

Global:

1. The US will continue the drive away from free trade. So, more tariffs and embargoes, and more pressure on the EU and other allied countries/blocks to cut/reduce ties with America's adversaries
2. Europe (mainly Germany and France) will continue to resist this drive as it benefits greatly from trading with China (and to some extent with Russia where the EU still imports lots of energy)
3. China will respond with its own tariffs however they will be more symbolic as China is still the main beneficiary of the old system (which is one of the reasons why the US wants to change it)
4. The above will prevent inflation from going down substantially
5. In the meantime, China will continue trading with ROtW (it's currently the main trading partner of c. 120 countries vs. the US being the main partner of c. 30 countries) so globalization is not going to massively scale down, just change where it happens
6. The new American administration will continue its push to secure borders (Canada, Mexico) and other key areas in the Western hemisphere for security reasons. For example, Greenlanders might be offered $1m each to vote for independence (which Greenland's constitution allows) and then become a US territory. EU countries would make a lot of noise about it but with no means to resist the move, they'd capitulate on the matter. This would greatly strengthen the US position in the far North as the Arctic is set to become more important in the coming decades (global warming etc.)
7. The importance of international institutions will continue to dwindle. UN will become more irrelevant. So will ICC, again driven mainly by the US whose interests these institutions no longer serve in their current form (despite the US being their founder). Ideas for alternative institutions will be floated but they won't get far
8. The risk of nuclear proliferation will be the highest in decades. Any breaking of taboo, however very unlikely, if happened will result in multiple countries developing their own capabilities within a short period (months rather than years). Which would be the biggest game changer in living memory
9. Almost no one will notice/be aware of any of this and people will simply go about their lives
10. The gaming industry will continue to grow faster than music and movies/TV

Country specific:

1. The German economic model and social contract will continue to be under severe pressure. The old model was based on 3 pillars: 1. cheap energy from Russia 2. cheap (free?) security provided by the US and 3. vast export markets in China. This model is no longer valid for obvious reasons and there doesn't seem to be a consensus as to the next steps. Eventually, Germany will figure out how to redefine itself but it will take more than this year
2. Russian economy will continue to suffer due to sanctions. However Russian society will continue to endure and adapt. The economic pressure alone will not force change (it rarely does) but will likely hinder Russia's development opportunities in the next decades
3. Structural issues suffocating the UK's growth will continue to be addressed only superficially by the government and as a result, growth will remain subpar and real incomes flat. Net migration will continue to be high despite the government's declared intent to reduce it
4. Eastern (and to a lesser extent Northern) European countries will continue massive increases in military expenditure. This will likely result in a hit to their GDP growth, however, they will stay on the course due to the acceptance of their citizens
5. The US will be fine. Never bet against America

[WingsOnFire]

Gold (and silver) will go significantly higher.

[chenda]

There will be a massive stock market crash approaching 2008 levels.

The emperor's nudity will become harder to deny.

[Stasher]

Gold (and silver) will go significantly higher.

Got that right so far, first time ever gold has broken the $3100 ceiling on Tuesday April 1st and is still rising.
"Gold rose above $3,130 per ounce on Wednesday, climbing back toward record levels reached in the previous session, driven by risk aversion as markets braced for additional US tariffs that could escalate the global trade war."

[Aspirant]

Trump wins the election, and contrary to what the losing party always says, nothing really changes dramatically in the USA /quote]

I know this is in the much frowned upon political territory, but I'd like to say this.

The only good thing about this mess is that it clearly shows that change is possible. Politicians actually can make a difference in a short period of time. I am hoping that future politicians will realize this and start making the world a better place...