COVID-19: Unwinding the Lockdown and Long Term Epidemic

[George the original one]

[url=https://www.aei.org/wp-content/uploads/ ... ring-2.pdf]A realistic plan outline from Scott Gottlieb

It's a good plan, but ignores the reality that we still have states not compliant with Phase I.

[bostonimproper]

@gtoo I think at some point governors are going to start limiting interstate travel and/or forcing travelers from out-of-state to quarantine on arrival. Which is going to be a nightmare.

[Nomad]

I think this virus is a global game changer.
There will likely be long lasting and far reaching effects to the economy working practices, education, travel, tourism - you name it.

Also, it is highly likely to return in mutated form in a few months or years - possibly in a more deadly form.

One thing I was considering is that this truly is the nail in the coffin for the Trump presidency. It has been spectacularly mismanaged and I would guess in total around 5 million US citizens could catch this. Many of them will be made bankrupt as a result.
The US public will surely demand universal healthcare.

An antibody test and a vaccine would help - not sure how far off they are but this needs eradicating as soon as possible - if possible.

[classical_Liberal]

One thing I was considering is that this truly is the nail in the coffin for the Trump presidency.

Ahh, but what if a second wave hits this autumn, right before our November presidential elections? I can't be the only one here thinking the result could be catastrophic for any semblance of US democracy. I think we should be preparing for this possibility with mail in balloting options. Like, start now before it's too late.

[black_son_of_gray]

@Nomad, classical_Liberal

FWIW, Trump's approval rating is actually up to the highest level since his inauguration: https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/tr ... id=rrpromo

The biggest spike in disapproval rating in the last couple years was when, IIRC the federal government temporarily shut down as parties played chicken with each other (late Jan 2019).

Regardless of how unfortunate the early US response was, the general population does not seem to be blaming Trump currently.

[The Old Man]

@gtoo I think at some point governors are going to start limiting interstate travel and/or forcing travelers from out-of-state to quarantine on arrival. Which is going to be a nightmare.

https://floridahealthcovid19.gov/travelers/
It is already happening.

[CS]

@cl
There is no evidence this thing will go away with warm weather. Our second wave will probably hit a month after restrictions are eased if testing is not in place and widespread. If I had to guess, I'd say July or August. (So much could happen in the next two months that guess is probably not worth the electrons it's written with.)

I do think our election is in peril, but not necessarily from the timing of a second (or third) wave.

@bsof
Trump's approval ratings are up, but they are single digits up, not the usual substantial boost that a crisis president usually gets. Plus, second quarter is going to get ugly. Oh so ugly. Probably over 10% unemployment. Now the housing market might crash.

https://www.ccn.com/did-the-fed-just-ac ... ket-crash/

Mortgage bankers hedge themselves against interest rates going up. If rates go up, the hedge makes sure they don’t lose money from customers who locked in a lower mortgage rate.

It’s a standard practice across the industry and almost never causes any problems.

Until now.

As part of the coronavirus stimulus action, the Fed bought $250 billion worth of mortgage-backed securities in a space of two weeks. For perspective, that dwarfs the amount they bought during the housing crisis by $80 billion.

Now Mortgage Bankers Face Bankruptcy
By flooding the market with money, the Fed forced down rates. Problem is, that just blew up the hedge.

Mortgage bankers are now getting margin calls and need to pay tens of millions of dollars to meet them. Even well capitalised lenders are on the brink of going under because of it. In a letter to regulators, the MBA wrote:
"Margin calls on mortgage lenders reached staggering and unprecedented levels by the end of the week. For a significant number of lenders, many of which are well-capitalized, these margin calls are eroding their working capital and threatening their ability to continue to operate."

Second quarter economies tend to predict the president. But then again, a national lock-in with no mail service* might 'Trump' our election.**

* It's looking possible we might lose USPS service this summer - the article came out today, I think. I'm too lazy to search for it.
**Haha, I make myself laugh. Maybe I should get some sleep.

[Ego]

Once a vaccine becomes available, then proof of vaccination would be required - similar to how Yellow Fever is handled today. Today, 14 day quarantine is required for all travelers when travel is even allowed. That requirement is likely to continue for the foreseeable future until a vaccine becomes available.

Finally, I believe non-essential travel will be prohibited until a vaccine becomes available. Tourism will be decimated.

This post has been bothering me all day. Not because I believe it to be wrong but because I believe it is spot on. I hope our travelers are thinking through the possible outcomes.

[Ego]

It's looking possible we might lose USPS service this summer - the article came out today, I think. I'm too lazy to search for it.

Today our Postal Carrier climbed up three floors to knock on my door and thank me for sending out a tub full of packages. He literally said I was saving his job as there was almost no mail for him to deliver. I knew they needed to do some budget voodoo to get the USPS budget in order but I didn't know it was that bad.

[George the original one]

https://floridahealthcovid19.gov/travelers/
It is already happening.

LOL because that's a political stunt by a governor who didn't shut down his beaches during spring break and still hasn't started a "stay-at-home" policy. This is all to back Trump and allow them to play a blame game for something that was their own fault.

The thing is, unless you start a lockdown, you currently can't stop the COVID-19 trajectory even when you close the borders. We've already seen that game played by the Trump administration at the national level and it didn't work then, so why expect it to work for a state? We see other countries with active cases also try to close the borders, but the COVID-19 trajectory continues until they get 3+ weeks of lockdown.

[George the original one]

Probably lots of people already immune hiding out in their houses right now who can go out and prevent economic and social catastrophe.

Nope, there just aren't massive amounts of immune people yet. Even when the current USA wave is over, the CDC predicts only 3% of the population will have been infected.

Here in Oregon, for example, there has been a lot of contact tracing. A LOT of contact tracing. 12,277 people have been tested and only 606 cases confirmed. Are we missing cases? Yes, somewhere between 50% and 75% when comparing to the South Korea data.

[Jin+Guice]

@gtoo I think at some point governors are going to start limiting interstate travel and/or forcing travelers from out-of-state to quarantine on arrival. Which is going to be a nightmare.

Texas is already quarantining people from Louisiana. I think Florida is too, but maybe that's just wishful thinking on my part. If there's a silver lining I'm looking for from all of this, it's having lived at least part of my life not legally being allowed to enter Florida without being forced to sit in a room by myself for 14 days and question why I would possibly want to spend time in Florida.

[CS]

@ego
Man - it goes from problems with sick carriers to no mail, just like that.

I was so, so, so far off on that unemployment number. Seriously, I should have thought about it more after seeing the NYTimes.
https://www.businessinsider.com/fed-une ... obs-2020-3

32% unemployment and 47 million out of work: The Fed just issued an alarming forecast for next quarter as the coronavirus continues to spread

Click for the front page preview tweet of the New York Times, then click again for the full graphic. It's worth it.
https://twitter.com/nytimes/status/1243 ... 01123?s=20

[IlliniDave]

I've talked about this elsewhere. At some point life must go on. If the entire world economic system collapses, I suspect far more people will die then the numbers we are trying to save now. So if there is never going to be medical solution, and if there are no seasonal reprieves, then we should just go back to work. People like me will probably die in that scenario, but like Spock says, the needs of the many outweigh the needs of the one.

However, I'm an optimist and don't particularly want to see people (including myself) die. I think summer in the NH will bring a lull and with the FDA suddenly prioritizing results over process (appropriate in "wartime") we'll be much better equipped to handle things next "season". But we've got to keep our eye on the ball in the interim.

Like a lot of things that happen, we'll generally have a new perspective on things. Things won't be the same in the long run, but they won't be all that much different either.

[chenda]

why I would possibly want to spend time in Florida.

You don't like Florida ?

[7Wannabe5]

@IDave:

We don’t have to die. We can go to the woods. The weather will be nice by the end of the first wave. If/when lockdown loosens I am going totally rural hermit. You have WAAAY more money than me, so if I can do it so can you!

[Quercus]

...

[7Wannabe5]

Maybe unlocking the lockdown by age group would work? For instance, could start by moving everybody age 16 to 22 into work Corp dorms in the abandoned hotels and college campuses, away from anybody over 50. Older people could be encouraged to isolate/early retire as the younger people are released in waves to infect each other then go back to work.

[ertyu]

doesn't work if the old and the young live together.

[7Wannabe5]

@ertyu:

Right. Young people can be crowded into dorms and workplaces. Old people can be alone in cabins in the woods.