Early Retirement Extreme Forums

Some study results of presymptomatic transmission.

The new study focused on 243 cases of coronavirus reported in Singapore from mid-January through mid-March, including 157 among people who hadn't traveled.

Researchers found that so-called pre-symptomatic people triggered infections in seven different clusters of disease, accounting for about 6% of the locally-acquired cases.

An earlier study in Hubei province, China, where the virus was first identified, suggested that more than 10% of transmissions could have occurred before patients spreading the virus ever exhibited symptoms.

https://katu.com/news/nation-world/heal ... tudies-say

Jin+Guice wrote: ↑

Wed Apr 01, 2020 6:06 pm

Australia: Why is the virus spreading so slowly?

They didn't enter the trajectory until March 5 and their climb has matched other countries until this week. https://aatishb.com/covidtrends/ shows that they're just beginning to bend the curve, that their social distancing is working and didn't require particularly strong orders.

Edit: the geography of Australia may help by isolating the population in a ring, so the most likely transmission path is linear rather than planar.

@ego

I can't speak to asthma, but I find it hard to imagine that the comorbidities found in NYC are not also present throughout the rest of the country. The city is far denser than anywhere else which likely helps to advance the spread but I don't think t\he health of the city's residents is significantly worse than that of the rest of the country. Arguably, I think there could be a strong case made for the inverse.

George the original one wrote: ↑

Tue Mar 31, 2020 5:49 pm

USA crossed an arbitrary line in the sand today: Half of USA states have more than 1,000 cases and no states have less than 100 cases.

1 state has not closed bars & restaurants.
3 states have not closed schools.
15 states have not closed non-essential businesses.
24 states have not issued "stay-at-home" orders.

15 states have mandatory quarantine for visitors. Of those, 8 do not have "stay-at-home" orders.

Florida (7773 cases), Pennsylvania (5805 cases), & Mississippi (1073 cases) issue "stay-at-home" orders. Only 21 states lagging now.

Edit: never mind my number of lagging states. Many more are falling in line now.

jacob wrote: ↑

Wed Apr 01, 2020 4:34 pm

FWIW, as one of very few countries in the world (the only one?), Sweden is actually carrying out your proposal, so you can see how it plays out in real time by following their numbers.

No they have not. The Prime Minister has asked those over seventy and those with health conditions stay home. They have not implemented any emergency measures.

Perhaps what we need is a some sort of identifying marker (a wristband or badge) for those under 65 and healthy who are free to reopen the full economy. People over 65 and those with health conditions that put them at risk to Covid could be supported in a strict quarantine. If they wish to free themselves from strict quarantine they could sign a non-revokable Advance Directive agreeing that no extreme measures will be taken to keep them alive above and beyond available medications.

Ego wrote: ↑

Wed Apr 01, 2020 7:11 pm

Perhaps what we need is a some sort of identifying marker (a wristband or badge) for those under 65 and healthy who are free to reopen the full economy. People over 65 and those with health conditions that put them at risk to Covid could be supported in a strict quarantine. If they wish to free themselves from strict quarantine they could sign a non-revokable Advance Directive agreeing that no extreme measures will be taken to keep them alive above and beyond available medications.

Wouldn't have worked for me and my mother. When she was 65, I was 22 and living at home while going to college.

89 new probable and confirmed cases in NZ today bringing total confirmed and probable to 797.

Still only 1 death.

92 people recovered.

13 people in hospital and 2 in intensive care.

Testing is increasing. There were 2563 tests yesterday -making a total of 26,000 tests so far.

Death rate of only 0.12% And death plus serious rate of 0.38%.

Re Iceland having a low death rate - 0.16% - Iceland has done more testing per capita than any other country in the world.

These results are indicating my suspicion and hope that mortality is far less than we thought and just the number of infections are far higher than reported.

NZ is following a far stricter approach than most countries I think. Except that there is one major achilles heel. That we are not quarantining people who come in from overseas - returning Kiwis. Only those who have symptoms. God I hope this changes to proper quarantine.

@George, she moves onto a docked quarantine cruise ship or into a quarantine hotel for the duration. Or you move into the dorms.

Perhaps a good way to bail out those industries and get their people back to work.

Greatest co-morbidity according to the Italian data is hypertension, which about a third of Americans have. That's a lot of people to find alternative housing for.

Ego wrote: ↑

Wed Apr 01, 2020 7:24 pm

@George, she moves onto a docked quarantine cruise ship or into a quarantine hotel for the duration. Or you move into the dorms.

And who's paying for the required extra housing?

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles ... r-some-die

"Experts are seeing the same pattern emerging elsewhere in the U.S. as outbreaks grow. In Philadelphia, 56% of confirmed Covid-19 cases are under 40. A teenager lost their life in Los Angeles, a 12-year-old was intubated in Seattle, an infant was infected in Delaware and a 1-year-old baby died in Chicago." A 13-year-old also died in the UK I believe.

Article also talks about something I've read elsewhere, that just being put on a ventilator, if you are lucky enough to get one, can cause long-term damage to your lungs.

People under 44 also make up approximately 60% of the population and are probably exposed to the virus at a disproportionately high rate given an increased probability of working outside the home. A 20% share of hospitalization is fairly modest under those conditions.

It makes sense that the narrative is being pushed since young people need to be scared into taking this seriously in order for Ro to drop. But still kind of annoying the media is deliberately being sneaky with contextualizing the numbers.

George the original one wrote: ↑

Wed Apr 01, 2020 6:43 pm

They didn't enter the trajectory until March 5 and their climb has matched other countries until this week. https://aatishb.com/covidtrends/ shows that they're just beginning to bend the curve, that their social distancing is working and didn't require particularly strong orders.

Edit: the geography of Australia may help by isolating the population in a ring, so the most likely transmission path is linear rather than planar.

As an Australian let me state that this is predominantly due to luck and let's see how it plays out. We've been hit a little later and the various governments have in general implemented social distancing practices. Plenty of people though are morons and continue to do the wrong thing. We've also tested fairly well in that the focus has been on travelers coming into Australia and people they've been exposed too. They are now expanding the testing to focus on areas where outbreaks have occurred. Our deaths are probably also on the higher side than what they should be. One nursing home copped it and has a number of deaths from COVID-19.

Australia is an Island and most of the transmissions have been from overseas travelers. It's also early days. Let's give it a month before we get too excited and think Australia is in the clear.

Another point I'd make is that although our testing hasn't been great it hasn't been bad. I think a good country to look at is Germany. They've done a lot of testing but they have 11 deaths per million people. Australia is on 0.9 but it's only really just started. The US is at 15 but I think it's just started there as well.

ZAFCorrection wrote: ↑

Wed Apr 01, 2020 11:11 pm

It makes sense that the narrative is being pushed since young people need to be scared into taking this seriously in order for Ro to drop.

Younger people tend to be the more stupid ones who don't care if people die from the disease however to be fair older people were still getting on cruise ships up until recently and acting like there was nothing to worry about. Then they complain when they get quarantined or have to pay extra to get back home.

steveo73 wrote: ↑

Thu Apr 02, 2020 2:07 am

Younger people tend to be the more stupid ones who don't care if people die from the disease however to be fair older people were still getting on cruise ships up until recently and acting like there was nothing to worry about. Then they complain when they get quarantined or have to pay extra to get back home.

I did hear some younger people in their early 20s making quite a good argument. Saying we complained to you about the environment and you did nothing and didn't change your ways despite it threatening our lives - now the virus is better for us and the environment and you want us to change our lifestyles for you..... Thought it was quite a good point. Very much an eye for an eye but can see the point

@thrifty - I think that is an absolutely stupid point. I don't get why people are mentioning the environment as some sort of parallel scenario to a virus that is ripping through the world. The environment is such a broad topic and it's probably better reserved for a different thread.

I mean do they care about the elephants but not human beings ? Does that care actually impact their life decisions ? I bet 99.9% of them still eat meat, travel on planes, drive cars etc.

George the original one wrote: ↑

Wed Apr 01, 2020 8:19 pm

And who's paying for the required extra housing?

Isn't it still cheaper than stopping the world?

Peanut wrote: ↑

Wed Apr 01, 2020 9:14 pm

"Experts are seeing the same pattern emerging elsewhere in the U.S. as outbreaks grow. In Philadelphia, 56% of confirmed COVID-19 cases are under 40. A teenager lost their life in Los Angeles, a 12-year-old was intubated in Seattle, an infant was infected in Delaware and a 1-year-old baby died in Chicago."

Every life loss is regrettable and especially so the young ones, however, 3 out of 5,000 people or 0.06% of all deaths are a very small minority. There will be exceptions, but the average age at death is 80.

Chloroquine is not a “game-changer”

The FDA’s decision is surprising to us given that the clinical data generated so far for the compound is at best mixed as it showed anecdotal efficacy in small trials (with no control arms) while failing to demonstrate efficacy in a controlled trial in China. Although it may be helpful for some patients, there is not sufficient evidence supporting the efficacy and the use of these drugs without prescription could cause serious consequences including death.

JPM

Source:
https://themarketear.com/posts/cKydJ9hw3B

Head singer of “Fountains of Wayne” age 52 dead from Covid. One of my BF’s friends also in 50s intubated and critical. There are a lot of men in their 59s and 60s in the U.S. and letting it rip through this population, even at “just” 2% death rate, will not result in insignificant loss. Death rate in middle age, for reasons yet unknown, is twice as high for men.

@7Wannabe5 - That is sad news on the FOW singer and your BF's friend. I can't see this getting to a 2% mortality rate. That just seems way to high. That mortality rate though makes no difference to the point you are making. I just think we need to try and minimize the loss of life from this virus.