Useful Hard Skills for the near future

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jacob
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Re: Useful Hard Skills for the near future

Post by jacob »

Ego wrote:
Sun Feb 27, 2022 7:51 pm
The next few hours and days will be interesting for the average Russian. Any predictions on the consequences of the Swift situation on regular folks? Could individual Russians have done anything in anticipation of the sanctions? Which sanction will have more impact on them, blocking swift or restricting the Russian central bank's international reserves? Or something else? If you were in their shoes, what would you wish you had done with 20/20 hindsight?
Well, how many SWIFT transfers do you do each year? I could live without them for quite a while myself :) Russia's imports relative to GDP is 20%. The same number for the US is 15%. Thus maybe a non-immediate impact similar to the early COVID lockdowns that depends more on demand-volatility (hoarding milk, toast, and TP), which may not exist to the same degree compared to the US. Also, IIRC (haven't verified), China set up a SWIFT alternative for exactly this kind of situation and Russia could just use their system.

Overall I'm not sure whether commercial sanctions are as upsetting as western consumers imagine them to be. I'd suspect this would be like trying to sanction me by not inviting me to office party---I don't care because I never intended to go in the first place. I'll note that the sanctions only apply to select banks. The spice must flow.

Dream of Freedom
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Re: Useful Hard Skills for the near future

Post by Dream of Freedom »

Feb 28 (Reuters) - Russia's central bank more than doubled its key policy rate on Monday and introduced some capital controls as it scrambled to shield the economy from unprecedented Western sanctions that sent the rouble tumbling to record lows.

The main interest rate will rise to 20%, its highest this century, from 9.5% to counter the risks of the rouble's rapid depreciation and higher inflation, which threaten Russians' savings.
Damn, that is quite a rate hike! Staying away from interest rate risk would be a hindsight 20/20 good thing.

https://www.reuters.com/markets/europe/ ... 022-02-28/

chenda
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Re: Useful Hard Skills for the near future

Post by chenda »

jacob wrote:
Mon Feb 28, 2022 8:55 am
Overall I'm not sure whether commercial sanctions are as upsetting as western consumers imagine them to be.
Yes though it might be more usefully impactful on oligarchs who can't visit their pads in Londongrad or import their favourite German beer. [edit] Although Russia's middle class has got accustomed to foreign holidays, imported goods and disposable income. If that evaporates it could well have ramifications.

Russians abroad are also going to suffer, not been able to visit family or send them remittances.

Analogous to this is what skills would be most useful to help Ukrainians right now?

zbigi
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Re: Useful Hard Skills for the near future

Post by zbigi »

chenda wrote:
Mon Feb 28, 2022 9:41 am
Analogous to this is what skills would be most useful to help Ukrainians right now?
Knowing someone in Poland or other neighboring, refugee-friendly country who can set up a relatively comfortable refugee situation for you in there (accomodation etc.) while you wait out the war. The first wave of Ukrainian refugees who come to Poland so far are in big part (according to media) people like that.

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Re: Useful Hard Skills for the near future

Post by chenda »

zbigi wrote:
Mon Feb 28, 2022 1:33 pm
Knowing someone in Poland or other neighboring, refugee-friendly country who can set up a relatively comfortable refugee situation for you in there (accomodation etc.) while you wait out the war. The first wave of Ukrainian refugees who come to Poland so far are in big part (according to media) people like that.
I meant for those of us with no connection to the region and are not directly impacted. What skills would be useful to proactively assist Ukrainians? All I can do at the moment is send money.

Medical and military training would be the obvious ones. Ukraine is apparently even setting up a foreign legion seeking volunteers with military experience.

Dream of Freedom
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Re: Useful Hard Skills for the near future

Post by Dream of Freedom »

chenda wrote:
Mon Feb 28, 2022 1:54 pm
I meant for those of us with no connection to the region and are not directly impacted. What skills would be useful to proactively assist Ukrainians? All I can do at the moment is send money.
Sales, marketing, social media, rhetoric. Convincing people of certain things would be helpful. It is a force multiplier*. You can do a little bit. If you can convince 5 people to do a little bit, you do 5x the amount. then you no longer do a little bit, but a big bit. If you convince 10...

*It's not the only force multiplier.
Last edited by Dream of Freedom on Mon Feb 28, 2022 4:06 pm, edited 3 times in total.

sky
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Re: Useful Hard Skills for the near future

Post by sky »

Ego wrote:
Sun Feb 27, 2022 7:51 pm
If you were in their shoes, what would you wish you had done with 20/20 hindsight?
Emigrate. No use hanging around a poorly run country with no opportunities. If I had money, emigrate to Crete or some Mediterranean coastal city. No money? чикаго

white belt
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Re: Useful Hard Skills for the near future

Post by white belt »

Ability to endure suffering is a useful skill. My understanding is that many Ukrainians are quite good at this, at least according to my friends with Ukrainian ancestry. There are probably historical and cultural components.

Communications will be a shit show in every conflict for the foreseeable future. Your best strategy is to have multiple forms of communications. That means line of sight communications like FM radio, satellite communications (starlink/expeditionary satellite phones), cell phones, smoke (different colors), signal mirrors, flares/pyrotechnics (different colors), whistles, and so on. High Frequency radios are extremely useful in a contested communications environment, but I'm not sure there are any models available to non-military. Hell even things like air horns, bells, and the old school megaphones that don't require power would probably be useful. I believe there was an article about Ukrainian towns resorting to police megaphones to disseminate information because other communications systems were unreliable. In other conflicts, individuals have resorted to bringing back the old school field telephone and running their own lines, but that will require some electricity unless you had the foresight (or scavenging ability) to get some sound-powered telephones.

I would say for the layperson to understand the environment enough to know how and when to use these separate systems may be doable, but configuring and routing a custom IP-based network is going to require a network engineer with experience working on expeditionary and low-bandwidth networks.
Last edited by white belt on Mon Feb 28, 2022 4:07 pm, edited 4 times in total.

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Re: Useful Hard Skills for the near future

Post by white belt »

Ego wrote:
Fri Feb 25, 2022 4:35 pm
Reservists aged 18-60 are being conscripted. Many are not adequately prepared with training and equipment. (?)

Thoughts?
The most important thing is to physically prepared for such an outcome, which is well-covered here in most prepping discussions. That means being a healthy weight and in shape for physical activity. The most likely physical activity will be walking a lot while carrying 20-100 lbs of gear with the occasional sprint to cover, but that could vary depending on what you get conscripted into doing. If you have prescriptions, you're going to want to make sure you have stockpiles to keep you alive through a few months of supply disruptions. I wouldn't bank on a pre-existing medical condition saving you from front-line duty if you are still able to walk normally. I also wouldn't bank on your gender saving you from conscription, although so far it seems that the Ukrainian conscription only includes men. You can learn to army in a few short weeks, but getting in physical shape for it will take much longer than that if you don't have a good fitness baseline (a big reason bootcamps are long is because physical body adaptations take longer than mental learning).

The typical emergency gear that people already have on hand would be extremely useful in case of conscription. I'm talking about stuff like outdoor (camping) clothing, bags, durable boots/shoes, gloves, sunglasses, ear plugs, headlamp, first aid kit, and so on as baseline preparation. Basically, anything you would need to be comfortable in your region for up to 24 hours a day spent outside. The next level of preparation would be personal protective gear that is specific to war, such as ballistic eye protection (clear and shaded lenses), body armor, helmet, knee pads, tactical pouches/FLC, fire-resistant gloves, and ear protection with external microphones (shooting ear muffs). I know at the start of the Ukrainian conflict in 2014, there were many militia fighters who were wearing an assortment of personally procured PPE to include things like motorcycle helmets.

I wouldn't worry as much about getting conscripted without being issued a weapon (maybe that is happening in Ukraine though?), however I would definitely have a side-arm pistol with holster. The pistol doubles as some protection during the collapse of rule of law since you will always be carrying it. Larger weapons require one to use one or both hands when carrying, so it's unlikely you'll have them on your person 24/7. A pistol isn't very helpful in a firefight or against trained soldiers, but it is helpful against your opportunistic "fellow man" who may be trying to pillage/rob/rape in a collapse situation.

Basic firearms training and familiarity are always useful, but don't expect it transfer perfectly to the weapon that you are issued in a conscription scenario.
Last edited by white belt on Mon Feb 28, 2022 8:56 pm, edited 1 time in total.

chenda
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Re: Useful Hard Skills for the near future

Post by chenda »

Dream of Freedom wrote:
Mon Feb 28, 2022 2:16 pm
Sales, marketing, social media, rhetoric.
Yes this is true. Propaganda - and I use the term in its old fashioned, neutral sense - is vital.

@white belt thanks for sharing your expertise it's very informative.

The Ukrainian pilot vlogger I linked to above mentioned he is in a very remote village, but his supplies are supplemented by some lifestock and, I'm guessing, vegetable patches. Sounds like it's a dacha/weekend family home, he fled there on Monday night with his family when he heard the first explosions.

He is not yet been conscripted but him and other men in the village are doing armed patrols although are not expecting any issues in such a remote place. WiFi and Internet is still available it seems, I'm guessing the authorities are making that a priority to maintain. He has pledged half his patron money will go to the Ukrainian armed forces and the other half to his family if they decide or have to leave.

Makes me sick to see what's happening right in the neighbourhood.

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Re: Useful Hard Skills for the near future

Post by The Old Man »

https://youtu.be/If61baWF4GE
"Why Russia is invading Ukraine"

This video provides very good insight into the reasons for the invasion.

Whatever the outcome and whatever the impact of the sanctions it is clear to me that Russia will fall under the sphere of influence of China. China will be the big winner. Russia does not have the economy to sustain a major war, so will need China. With Russia will come the central Asian republics and that would open up a land route to Iran. China and the USA are on a collision course to war over Taiwan. Because Russia, the central Asian republics, and Iran would be on the side of China, the USA-China War would become a global war. If the USA chooses not to fight for Taiwan, then all of Asia would become Finlandized to China and the EU would become Finlandized to Russia. This scenario could easily come about in my lifetime.

It would be a useful thought experiment to assess whether ERE is viable in such an uncertain world.

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Re: Useful Hard Skills for the near future

Post by white belt »

jacob wrote:
Fri Feb 25, 2022 5:02 pm
A major global breadbasket turning into a war zone. We'll see.
According to a podcast I was listening to this morning, we are about 4 weeks away from the spring wheat planting dates in Ukraine (although 95% of Ukrainian wheat is winter wheat which won't be harvested until July or August). I'm trying to find some more analysis of the potential effects on ag commodities. This article was somewhat informative: https://www.startribune.com/war-in-ukra ... fresh=true

Any natural gas disruptions will create global knock on effects with further fertilizer shortages. Corn is a fertilizer hungry crop.
Last edited by white belt on Tue Mar 01, 2022 8:43 am, edited 2 times in total.

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Ego
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Re: Useful Hard Skills for the near future

Post by Ego »

The Old Man wrote:
Mon Feb 28, 2022 9:25 pm
It would be a useful thought experiment to assess whether ERE is viable in such an uncertain world.
This is exactly why I revived this old thread.

What are some of the ways that uncertainty could play out? Disasters happen at different paces in different places. We can look elsewhere and ask ourselves what we would have done if we were in their shoes.

The way I see it, the more uncertain the world, the more useful ERE becomes.... right?

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Re: Useful Hard Skills for the near future

Post by 7Wannabe5 »

ERE becomes more useful, but FIRE becomes less tenable. Reason being that FIRE is totally dependent on "spaceship" (modern) solution, but you're no longer an engaged, top-level player. Since ERE is a meta-modern solution or guide for creating solution sets, you aren't locked into modern game. You can play the game at different levels.

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Re: Useful Hard Skills for the near future

Post by jacob »

white belt wrote:
Mon Feb 28, 2022 4:00 pm
[...] FLC [...]
What's this acronym? Google failed.

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Re: Useful Hard Skills for the near future

Post by jennypenny »

@jacob -- A vest.

white belt
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Re: Useful Hard Skills for the near future

Post by white belt »

jacob wrote:
Tue Mar 01, 2022 9:11 am
What's this acronym? Google failed.
Fighting Load Carrier. Typically takes the form of a vest with MOLLE webbing to attach various kinds of pouches. Very useful for carrying ammunition, first aid kit, water, and other essentials within arms reach at all times. Usually more comfortable than carrying a backpack or things in your pant pockets all day. Google search says they can be had used from surplus stores for ~$15, although that doesn't include the price of the pouches. Sometimes they will be integrated with a plate carrier (body armor).

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Re: Useful Hard Skills for the near future

Post by jacob »

white belt wrote:
Mon Feb 28, 2022 4:00 pm
The most important thing is to physically prepared for such an outcome, which is well-covered here in most prepping discussions. That means being a healthy weight and in shape for physical activity. The most likely physical activity will be walking a lot while carrying 20-100 lbs of gear with the occasional sprint to cover, but that could vary depending on what you get conscripted into doing.
For those who are interested, I'm generally schlepping a couple of dumbbells around in a goruck2 (I finally bought one last year. I friggin' love that thing!) when doing this: viewtopic.php?t=12106 A useful side-effect is that it slows me down just enough to keep pace with DW. Think of weight as the walking equivalent of a golf handicap. More info in the link.

One thing I've noticed is that if I even jog with a 30lbs load for as little as 1/4 mile, my knees will remind me later for several days. I'm thinking this [slower recovery] is why soldiering is best a young person's game(?)

Since it wasn't mentioned(?), good footwear is a major asset and bad footwear is a major liability. But also .. by extension good feet, which are hardened by walking a lot, are better than bad feet, which are soft and develop blisters much faster. IOW, just jumping on amazon and BIFL'ing some boots is not enough.

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Re: Useful Hard Skills for the near future

Post by chenda »

Language skills. Translator, interpretator etc.

white belt
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Re: Useful Hard Skills for the near future

Post by white belt »

jacob wrote:
Tue Mar 01, 2022 11:32 am
For those who are interested, I'm generally schlepping a couple of dumbbells around in a goruck2 (I finally bought one last year. I friggin' love that thing!) when doing this: viewtopic.php?t=12106 A useful side-effect is that it slows me down just enough to keep pace with DW. Think of weight as the walking equivalent of a golf handicap. More info in the link.

One thing I've noticed is that if I even jog with a 30lbs load for as little as 1/4 mile, my knees will remind me later for several days. I'm thinking this [slower recovery] is why soldiering is best a young person's game(?)

Since it wasn't mentioned(?), good footwear is a major asset and bad footwear is a major liability. But also .. by extension good feet, which are hardened by walking a lot, are better than bad feet, which are soft and develop blisters much faster. IOW, just jumping on amazon and BIFL'ing some boots is not enough.
I have a goruck1 which has served me well for ~10 years with virtually no signs of wear. I think it's one of the few BIFL backpacks.

The short answer is that soldiering is a young person's game for a variety of reasons. Allow me to elaborate.

In the U.S. Army, the typical infantry soldier joins when they are 18-22 (there are exceptions though). The most physically demanding jobs are generally done by the junior infantry soldier in the first ~5 years of service. Depending on competence, once a soldier hits the 3-5 year mark they will probably get promoted to sergeant, at which point they will be a team leader (some remain at the junior soldier level for longer if they aren't "leadership" material). In my opinion, the most physically demanding job is that of a team leader because they must do everything their soldiers do like shooting, clearing a room, etc along with all of the additional responsibilities that come with being a leader like talking on the radio, checking that soldiers have adequate supplies, carrying demolition and other special equipment, and serving as point man.

At the 6-8 year mark, a sergeant will typically get promoted to staff sergeant (again depending on competence). This means they are now a squad leader, so their hardest physical days are likely over. They will still physically train and march with their squad, however on the battlefield their role is now to coordinate the 2 teams in their squad, rather than to just be a trigger puller. Further promotions and serving in positions like platoon sergeant and first sergeant will pull them one further step removed from the most physically demanding door-kicker roles. Such positions will still require a lot of walking and running, but it will also involve a lot of stopping and waiting while your soldiers clear objectives. The officers start out in such leadership roles in which coordinating your subordinate elements is much more important than shooting your own weapon.

Therefore, the infantry soldiers are mostly in their late teens or early 20s, which means their bodies can handle a lot of wear and tear. The leaders of those front line soldiers are generally in their mid-late 20s. I was able to move away from that world after 5 years with only a few minor injuries, but generally people start to rack up injuries the longer they are in the game. Just like in competitive sports, you do see exceptions to the rule. There are people who demonstrate longevity, probably due to a combination of genetics, physical training, and luck. I've seen senior officers in their 50's who can still perform all the physical duties as well as a younger soldier for short periods, however I don't know if their bodies could handle the same wear and tear day in and day out like a 20 year old can.

Personally, I have logged a ton of miles rucking at a walking and running pace with no knee pain. However, I don't doubt that I was causing a lot of wear on my joints. I never trained ruck running, although I did do it many times when required. My theory is that ruck running is bad enough on my joints, so I might as well minimize total miles doing it. I found that being in decent regular running shape and decent rucking shape meant that combining the 2 activities when needed was doable without needing to specifically train it. Nearly all of the rucking I did was with packs that had external frames, which in theory distributes the weight better, allows for more adjustment, and reduces back sweat. Cinching down a pack with waist belt, chest strap, and shoulder straps becomes much more important over longer distances and especially if you are incorporating running because you don't want the pack to bounce or swing.

Having your feet conditioned to your footwear is important to minimize blisters. The next best thing is to have a lot of bandaids, moleskin, and similar to cover hot spots before they can turn into blisters. I also used darn tough socks which seemed to help prevent foot issues. If you're doing a lot of walking, you're going to run into foot problems with moisture eventually. Footwear like crocs, flip flops, or sandals that allow you to air your feet out at night is highly recommended. The soldiering approach is to have a 2nd set of boots if you are an environment where open-toed shoes aren't safe. You always want one pair of dry boots so plan accordingly because spending a few days in wet boots is a great recipe for trench foot. When patrolling for days at a time in the infantry world, you usually have a set of boots for moving and a set of boots for stopping overnight. Your overnight boots must stay dry at all costs, which may mean putting back on wet boots in the morning when it's time to move again.

Edit: Chafing can also be an issue with walking long distances. I recommend you do some training to find out if you are a person that has chafing issues and how to mitigate them with things like body glide or specific clothing before ending up in a collapse scenario that requires a ton of walking.
Last edited by white belt on Fri Mar 04, 2022 11:34 pm, edited 1 time in total.

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