Early Retirement Extreme Forums

Given it's flu season and my petri dish coworkers already gave me 4 colds this year, germaphobic measure seem prudent.

I don't think panic is necessary, but neither is downplaying the risk. There's still a lot of unknowns with this virus, and it has the potential to be as serious as any flu pandemic. I think the lack of true knowledge about how deadly/contagious it really is gives us more than enough reason to at least follow standard flu season protocol of washing hands, wiping down surfaces, spraying coworkers with disinfectant, etc

As I read Dalio's thoughts (and others), I'm struck by how they forget to compare the amount of human input into the market/economy then vs. now. Humans were an essential part of all production and manufacturing, and person to person contact was necessary for any business transacted. That's not the case now. I think that will affect both the transmission rate (should the virus become pervasive) and the slowdown in production if people are forced to stay home. If I had to make a guess, I'd say if this becomes even a moderate pandemic, it will greatly accelerate the conversion to automation and the elimination of human jobs at point of contact. I'd also guess that it would be the death knell of most brick and mortar stores unless they get into the pick up/delivery business.

I wish I owned a drone business.


On the topic profiting off the pandemic ... I took inventory and I have more masks then we'll ever need. I was tempted to sell some off but I've decided to save them for friends and family who are less prepared. I had to think about it for a minute though.

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It would be interesting if the outbreak was bad enough in China to topple Xi. Going forward, that would have more of a global effect than the pandemic itself.

AnalyticalEngine wrote: ↑

Fri Jan 31, 2020 9:42 am

spraying coworkers with disinfectant, etc

Now that sounds like fun

jennypenny wrote: ↑

Fri Jan 31, 2020 9:51 am

It would be interesting if the outbreak was bad enough in China to topple Xi. Going forward, that would have more of a global effect than the pandemic itself.

I think not. The measures against the disease within the country are decisive and very well coordinated. For a country of that size, it is really being handled admirably. 10,000 bed hospital springing up in wuhan in a week, military and medical personnel from the rest of the country flown in, etc. they know how big of a thing this is and they really are doing their best. the urban centers are very dense, but also, preventative measures are tight. e.g. elevators in apartment buildings being washed with bleach and temperature checks at entry/exit. masks are being worn consistently, the gvt commandeered mask producers to crank it up, etc. the population seems well informed about preventative measures. an acquantance shared over chat he was trying to get a cab and the guy who stopped for him wanted him to put on a mask before being let in. Guy said, i don't have one. Cab guy said, I'll give you and fished out a box of spares. So even someone as poor and low on the totem pole was well aware of the danger and responsible.

Like it or not, at times of an emergency of this type, draconian works. Also, the chinese as a people have respect for a ruler who is actively on top of things and enforcing standards of behavior. authoritarian works for xi, not against.

ertyu wrote: ↑

Fri Jan 31, 2020 10:18 am

I think not. The measures against the disease within the country are decisive and very well coordinated. For a country of that size, it is really being handled admirably.

That's not the assessment of friends inside China.

Time will tell.

@ertyu I hope you are right and China can sort things out. [Edited for clarity]

https://youtu.be/Ybs56LVG9FI

I don't fear a virus like I fear people.

My understanding of the context is these people being sealed in, are not sick, merely have traveled from areas where the sickness was.

The measures against the disease within the country are decisive and very well coordinated.

Well, that's one way to look at it.

For those who think I have over prepared, imagine being sealed in with a sick loved one. I want the supplies to hold out, and to treat as best I can. Even if transmission is inevitable in such circumstances, staggering infection means harboring strength. If everyone is sick at the same time, not much care is possible.

I wasn't knocking China's ability to clamp down on things or the Chinese people. We have close friends from/in China. All I was saying is that what China says publicly doesn't reflect what I've been told is going on there.

@jennypenny oh that wasn't directed at you, I phrased that all badly. Just meant I hope they have a handle on it all

Sooo I was back at Home Depot searching for o-rings. As I walked across the lot I saw a Chinese guy with dozens of small boxes in his arms dropping and picking up the boxes awkwardly. As I wandered by I noticed they were HDX cheap paint masks.

I hollered out, “better get them before they’re gone.” He got really nervous like I caught him stealing. Perhaps misunderstanding my sarcasm.

As I wandered around in the store I noticed another Chinese guy closely reading the label on the Clorox wipes. They still had a huge stack of those. “Those are really good for viruses!” I hollered out. The dude tried to ignore me.

This early in the morning only contractors are milling about. These guys stood out.

sclass why are you harassing people dudes are doing their best. do not harass people, they face enough bullshit stigma over this already. and proud of yourself, too. so witty, you were

@ertyu
Don't let the fear make you grumpy, we are just joking around. That's how some people deal with uncertainty. Being too serious all of the time was really bad for me, so I joke when I can and I appreciate the efforts of Sclass. We mean no harm and we aren't downplaying the risk. There is risk but it hasn't manifested yet so I choose general flu season precautions, which are really year round precautions for me, and add a pinch of humor when I can. If it escalates then I will escalate my precautions. Please don't worry so much, it makes you, and made me, miserable.

No, ertyu is right. I won’t do that anymore. I didn’t think about how they must feel with all the news about Chinese.

"You never let a serious crisis go to waste. And what I mean by that it's an opportunity to do things you think you could not do before."

The media around here seems to be promoting China's ability to control the population more than giving facts about the virus. I also hear more about bare shelves than companies sending sick people home. Taking in this tone is more political than medical. Reminds me of 9-11 and using it as an arguement for Guantanamo.

I wonder if the age of the general population has anything to do with this fear. Its known that as people age they become more fearful.

I live in the middle of nowhere. I worry more about the effect on my stocks than getting sick.

It could also be that humor and non-standard word usage doesn't translate easily for ESL peeps. My experience with the Chinese academic types who put in A TON of effort learning English is that humor is still misunderstood about 60% of the time. It's painful having to speak literally all day.

Definitely better not to mess around if having positive intent.

Oh please, Sclass was not harassing anybody. Why do you assume they are esl speakers anyway? He’s in Cali, there are tons of third-gen Asian Americans there as well as immigrants. And they will perhaps be more paranoid about transmission if they live and move among other ethnic Chinese.

ZAFCorrection wrote: ↑

Fri Jan 31, 2020 2:23 pm

It could also be that humor and non-standard word usage doesn't translate easily for ESL peeps.

I don't understand British humor. Not an ESL problem.

no worries Chenda

We just watched the HBO documentary "Chernobyl". It was one of the most riveting TV shows I ever watched despite the fact that I was covering my eyes half the time. It was not a disaster movie. It was a movie about how a Communist country deals with a disaster. I couldn't help relate it to China and this virus. I understand public relations is a handmaiden to problems, but with any country who has its big toe dipped into the Communist pool, international public opinion quickly moves to the very head of the priority line. I own Abbvie stock and Abbvie came out and said it might have an anti-viral solution. My first thought was "would China even consider its problem to be solved by a non-Chinese company, especially a US based company?" It's insult to injury, especially since they are trying to prove themselves as innovators and not just duplicators. Not only do they start the virus, they need foreign aid to stop it? You can just sense the swirl of disinformation.

And please, enough of this fucking sensitivity. Do you think people in the 13th century walked into Thee Ole' Home Depot and refrained from busting Medieval balls when they noticed people stocking up on mouse traps? You want to commune with reptilian life, that's your business but when that inter-species shit starts affecting those not so inclined, all bets are off.

Indian scientists discovered insertions in the 2019 coronavirus not found in any other coronavirus. The insertion has similar composition to that of HIV leading to the thought that the virus was manufactured.

https://www.biorxiv.org/content/10.1101 ... 1.full.pdf

Abstract:

We are currently witnessing a major epidemic caused by the 2019 novel coronavirus (2019-
nCoV). The evolution of 2019-nCoV remains elusive. We found 4 insertions in the spike
glycoprotein (S) which are unique to the 2019-nCoV and are not present in other coronaviruses.
Importantly, amino acid residues in all the 4 inserts have identity or similarity to those in the HIV1 gp120 or HIV-1 Gag. Interestingly, despite the inserts being discontinuous on the primary
amino acid sequence, 3D-modelling of the 2019-nCoV suggests that they converge to constitute
the receptor binding site. The finding of 4 unique inserts in the 2019-nCoV, all of which have
identity /similarity to amino acid residues in key structural proteins of HIV-1 is unlikely to be
fortuitous in nature. This work provides yet unknown insights on 2019-nCoV and sheds light on
the evolution and pathogenicity of this virus with important implications for diagnosis of this virus.