Early Retirement Extreme Forums

The value of coastal real estate will be interesting going forward.

http://www.nytimes.com/2016/11/24/scien ... .html?_r=0

And, it's now more difficult for Florida beachs to find enough sand.

http://www.theverge.com/2016/11/17/1366 ... ate-change

I wouldn't want to be a big developer right on the coast going forward.

But hey, if you put a bug in somebody's ear about the future of Mara Lago and certain other beach front properties and golf courses, you might see some action.

GTOO said: I think stilts would be more appropriate.

lol- In my region, the concern is heavier rainstorms combined with inadequate drainage systems and too much paving. It seems to me that a slab ought to be better, especially if mold growth effecting indoor air quality is an issue, but there might be something I am not taking into account.

Lol...If I had access to that ear I wouldn't be talking to him about beach front property. At least not initially.

This is an interesting example:

theanimal wrote:@Jacob- Can you elaborate on why no home or land in forested regions? Is it because of potential poorer gardening options and lack of power via solar? Lack of water? Or some other reason? Thanks.

Like somebody else said, forest fires. I give a lot of thought (and more importantly, work!) to maintaining what they call "defensible space" around my house and yard, even though I must be getting about 90 inches of rain a year lately. We do have dry (magnificent!) summers and there is fire danger. But you don't see many thousand year old Douglas firs in areas with frequent fires.

I also limb my trees of the dead, lower limbs, as they can make a ladder for ground fires to climb up into the canopy. And keep any brush piles low. I can't burn my slash from per-commercial thinning as there's no safe place to do so, but I keep it chopped close to the ground.

@chenda, and if you go even further back... https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Doggerland

Just remember not to confuse erosion with sea level rise. Sea level rise can enhance erosion, but erosion exists on its own without sea level rise.

7Wannabe5 wrote:

GTOO said: I think stilts would be more appropriate.

lol- In my region, the concern is heavier rainstorms combined with inadequate drainage systems and too much paving. It seems to me that a slab ought to be better, especially if mold growth effecting indoor air quality is an issue, but there might be something I am not taking into account.

As an urban condition, then, yes, I think basements would not be wise. I remember seeing video of an intense rainstorm that hit Austin, TX, and there were many inches of water pouring into the basement data center of a university... there was a cascade of rapids where it went down the steps! Edit: here's a similar, though milder, video https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=wTRXFdw7RJA

In comparable terms, at our former residence on very flat clay soil that was slow to disperse rainwater (e.g. shallow lakes form in winter), I built a 1200 sq ft workshop on a slab. In that situation, I made sure the foundation slab was a few inches above the observed lakes.

vexed87 wrote:@chenda, and if you go even further back... https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Doggerland

It's a fascinating history, especially the human artefacts they've dredged up over the years.

George the original one wrote:Just remember not to confuse erosion with sea level rise. Sea level rise can enhance erosion, but erosion exists on its own without sea level rise.

That's true, Holderness is eroding regardless of sea level changes. It may though provide some guidance as how predictable coastal changes will impact elsewhere.

So I imagine there's a good chance that most humans on the coast don't relocate until it's too late. They may be abandoning their homes, but they won't be abandoning their mortgages. If I'm thinking about this correctly, this means big losses in the banking sector leading to multiple other sectors going down as well.

Right. Remember the effects depend on what the coast topography & geology look like. Sydney Australia, where steveo lives, is a stable location for quite a while. On the other hand, the New Jersey shoreline is at significant risk.

And notably portions of Manhattan. Ok so if markets are going to go down long term what's the strategy? T-Bills? Avoiding large markets and investing locally?

So far my strategy is to avoid a plan that centers solely around the national markets, instead trying to find more ways to achieve success locally.

ETA: A bit ironic putting long term and t -bills together..but I think you guys know what I'm getting at.

George the original one wrote:

steveo73 wrote:https://judithcurry.com/2016/12/05/clim ... not-to-be/

This is a very interesting read.

Interesting for the politics, but not the science. In other words, it is mere gossip.

The reason it is interesting is that it shows how nuts the climate alarmists are and how the tiniest little criticism of their approach causes massive overreactions.

I hope you can see the parallels in this thread as well.

It's 100% attack anyone with an opinion that differs to yours. Please don't respond and state that this is about the science. It should be about the science. The problem is that it's not. It's a political leftist cause. I'm not even right wing either. I believe in gun control.

What will be interesting is when this doesn't pan out the way the alarmists are stating and it won't how they will back down.

steveo, that makes this final. You come into the discussion saying you can't find any scientific range for the effects, I tell you my experience and show you the science, and then you don't bother discussing the science & switch to politics. There's really nothing more we can discuss when you do that, just like you did two years ago and it reinforces my earlier comment that you are not qualified to pass judgement on the science because you do not engage it.

Somewhat off topic but I find it absolutely fascinating that the elders here are arguing about Trump and climate change while the young folks are talking about sex toys, tattoos and which parts of their bodies are ideal for piercing.

Ego wrote:Somewhat off topic but I find it absolutely fascinating that the elders here are arguing about Trump and climate change while the young folks are talking about sex toys, tattoos and which parts of their bodies are ideal for piercing.

Well I can tell you as a 25 year old that I skipped the phase where I thought I could meaningfully affect politics and jumped straight to pessimism. I get the impression that many of my peers feel similarly.

batbatmanne wrote: I get the impression that many of my peers feel similarly.

+1 I'm 21 and ignore politics for the most part. Neither party appeals to me, so I see little reason to devote thinking time to political disscussion. As for climate change, this thread is beating a dead horse at this point.

Ego wrote:Somewhat off topic but I find it absolutely fascinating that the elders here are arguing about Trump and climate change while the young folks are talking about sex toys, tattoos and which parts of their bodies are ideal for piercing.

Honestly I think the doomer porn has been getting a little out of hand lately. A little body art talk to lighten the mood is a welcome development!

One of the guys at the party I went to the other night is a local politician who was apoplectic about the fact that his grandchildren have not only refused to register to vote, they regularly make fun of him for his 'silly' belief that he can influence change. In some ways I can see their point but he made a good argument that they were suffering from induced apathy. That is, they were encouraged to not care.

It reminded me of those Richter rat experiments and learned helplessness.