Early Retirement Extreme Forums

liberty wrote: ↑

Tue Sep 26, 2017 12:50 pm

There are many cheap markets currently: http://www.starcapital.de/research/stockmarketvaluation

difficult to invest based on that

....

frugal wrote: ↑

Tue Sep 26, 2017 3:01 pm

liberty wrote: ↑

Tue Sep 26, 2017 12:50 pm

There are many cheap markets currently: http://www.starcapital.de/research/stockmarketvaluation

difficult to invest based on that

No. You could buy some of the cheap indexes. I own index funds for Emerging Markets, Europe and Norway. I also own the Global Value ETF (ticker: GVAL) from Cambria, which holds a basket of the 25% cheapest markets.

@liberty/frugal - Be aware that unless you're buying currency hedged foreign funds, there's a "short USD"-factor which has been quite strong in the QE-era but also overall since the strength of the currency is a strong indicator for the strength of the economy relative to that [strength] of other countries.

For example, looking in from the outside, VTSMX is up 11.1% YTD ... but USD/EUR is down 8.3% YTD, so in EUR terms, the US market is only up 1.111*0.092 -> 2.2%, so if you were a euro-investor betting on the US markets this year without a currency hedge, you would only be up 2.2%. Those 2.2% is a more accurate indicator of how the economy is performing being scrubbed from financial manipulations. It makes sense because it approximately matches and confirms the long (30 yr) real-rate, which is what the bond geniuses expect the [real] economic growth rate to be over the next three decades.

Also acknowledging the import of looking at the currencies for international investing, some banks (everbank.com made their name doing this many years ago) offer CDs in foreign currencies. They even offer basket CDs for those who want to speculate on e.g. commodities by including e.g. Canada, Australia, South Africa, say.

It's useful to be aware of these products and the reason they exist.

Jacob how are you?

My prefered portfolio is Permanent portfolio HB.

What is yours?

I heard that many ERE people use it.

With my best regards.

I'm already retired, but my goal was $1 million......I've actually surpassed that by quite a bit now.

Hello

the retirement number is about 250.000 USD per person?

Regards

@frugal: What is Permanent portfolio HB?

My answer to the topic: I'm not completely sure yet what my retirement number is (because I will move to Eastern europe, but I have no experience with living there yet), but I think around €160-200k, so €400-500 per month with 3% SWR.

500 is nothing everywhere if you have all expenses!

My Retirement Number is 450k which would give me at 4% 18k per year to live on.