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classical_Liberal wrote: ↑

Thu Jan 30, 2020 2:34 pm

This is called tegaderm. Personally I wouldn't trust it's seal to remain airtight.

Sorry, couldn't think of the name and was too lazy to dig it out of the supplies (we have a kid with cystic fibrosis and have a well-stocked medical supply closet ). The tegaderm works if you then put a cover over the mask. It's not great but it's better than using an expensive N95 every time my kid goes near a medical facility or on an airplane.


I just spoke his pulmonologist (for another reason) and she doesn't seem that worried. Her only advice was to follow influenza precautions and to avoid eating out and any medical facilities if it gets bad here.

Isn't tegaderm just an expensive albeit comfortable (breathable) substitute for duct tape?

@jacob
Yes, and it's transparent, which is very helpful for assessing areas like IV sites. The cost in manufacturing these products, I would guess, has to do with maintaining sterility.

jacob wrote: ↑

Thu Jan 30, 2020 1:18 pm

Unlike physics which usually leads to the same grand unified theory end point, this problem goes in all kinds of still-not-well-understood directions and as a noob it's very easy to believe that one has understood the big picture whereas in reality one has just traveled one path down the google hole. => Structure is key in microbiology because it's not inherent to the field!!

Sorry for the long response when you just wanted some recommendations, but you've gone and made me think. So that's on you. TL;DR - maybe look for a book on epidemiology? If you skim the first couple chapters and it seems Greek, dial it back to something more basic?

I think you've hit on something here. Maybe the best way to put it is that knowledge in biology is fractal. Here's what I mean: each level of knowledge, from superficial to deep to "cutting edge" (and there are many levels in between), is its own world with its own introductory/survey level followed by increasing specificity of detail until reaching the next "level", when a specific narrow interest is expanded. And unfortunately, each level requires at least the basics of the previous level (at least in the topics that are most adjacent to each other) as a prerequisite. Each level down is totally a rabbit hole, though, because while it continues along the path and is consistent with the previous levels, there need not be any point or reason or linkage to knowledge developed from the other rabbit holes out there. Biology is fun like that. This unfortunately means that there is no end to the amount of stuff you just plain have to memorize if you want to know it, and that the further you go down any single rabbit hole, more often than not, the more specific and generally irrelevant the details become with respect to other rabbit holes.* E.g. knowing the specific amino acids that make up the binding pocket on a specific receptor in a unique chemical pathway to organism X might be super interesting, but is almost certainly not generalizable beyond closely related species and is probably just "knowledge for knowledge's sake" for humanity - a fun little footnote in a paper no one will read. At least with physics matter is matter everywhere and energy is energy everywhere (But what do I know, I only took the 101 series in college!) Hope that makes sense.

*This other-rabbit-hole quality can even happen at the same level among collaborating colleagues as research teams have branched out to include dozens of diverse experts specializing in narrow techniques. That's been my experience any time statistics/probability/modeling gets used. The people that know the biology rarely have a deep understanding of the mathematics and vice versa. Even fewer people know enough about both to see when this has become the fundamental problem.

So that means general reading recommendations are definitely going to be tricky because even "intro" texts are at different levels. E.g. it would be an exercise in frustration to try to tackle organic chemistry before "general" or intro inorganic chemistry. Similarly, biochemistry only really makes sense after some basic cell biology and organic chemistry.... and on and on. Unfortunately, developing a better understanding of infectious diseases/microbiology has similar "mid-level" prerequisites - equivalent to being about a junior-level undergraduate. That is, after basic cell biology (e.g. do you understand basic cell replication? the "central dogma"? the various organelle systems? membrane proteins?), after basic genetics (e.g. introns, exons, transcription factors, promoters?), a decent understanding of chemistry (e.g. the behavior of electrons in different types of reactions, understanding basic reaction rate math, thermodynamics), a basic knowledge of the immune system, etc.

All that to say, if you're at Wheaton Level 1 (e.g. "the mitochondrion is the powerhouse of the cell") or maybe Wheaton Level 2 (e.g. I can explain the basics of DNA transcription and translation without bungling it up too bad), then it would be a major investment of time to get there. In that case, trust the experts! I myself am not well-versed in microbiology, immunology, or epidemiology, but I'm way up there with cell biology and maybe Level 6-7 in my own tiny specialization (which is completely irrelevant to just about everything in daily life). I still default to the experts on this virus.* I know enough to know that the view from my rabbit hole is sufficiently narrow to make my own conclusions very sketchy. My 15 years studying and researching probably gives me few insights into this specific virus, although maybe a much greater appreciation of certain facts in the same way that an engineer might appreciate the work of another engineer in a related field.

*Which means get as close to the source as possible. Even good journalists - and I'm not bashing them I promise! - often rephrase something from an expert that had important nuance in it without knowing better.

And now having written all of that, I'm thinking (naively, mind you) that maybe the topic to focus on is epidemiology unless you've had a few intro biology/chemistry/physiology classes? I mean, what is required reading for an MPH? Seems like the Great Courses lectures were a great find. If you still want me to hunt down a book or two for you, let me know and I'll see what I can do.

jacob wrote: ↑

Thu Jan 30, 2020 3:34 pm

Isn't tegaderm just an expensive albeit comfortable (breathable) substitute for duct tape?

I'd think there's a big difference between the two when you try to remove them from your face.

I found some sterile cloth tape left over from a burn in the closet. I'll try using that and see if it's better.

jennypenny wrote: ↑

Thu Jan 30, 2020 4:14 pm

I'd think there's a big difference between the two when you try to remove them from your face.

How many times have you tested this theory? I'd try myself, but again, I don't wanna lose my beard!

wasn't testing it for medical reasons

I don't know where to send you for biology, but I found the open course "Epidemics in Western Society Since 1600" that I listened to the lectures from a few years ago add a lot of color to this outbreak and Ebola before it.

https://oyc.yale.edu/history/hist-234

@bsog - Based on your comments I might be Wheaton 1.5 I realize [and painfully at that] that biological matters fall within the [url=http://earlyretirementextreme.com/teach ... lking.html]onion approach[url] rather than the linear [diving] approach. Thus any kind of onion-like structure[d curriculum] would likely help those of us (especially physicists) trying to work out way to understanding w/o wasting too much time chasing stuff that's only interesting to 5 people in the world.

I think I asked for "reading vectors" a couple of years ago. Got some answers like "look up curriculum for various universities", but more hand-holding, like specific textbook links would go a long way.

I don't have a specific textbook suggestion, but for anyone wanting to learn more bio, I might recommend starting with a high school level cellular biology textbook rather than college level? Or at least something more bio 101. The problem is some of the more advanced stuff gets really bogged down in a ton of detail that's not helpful if you're still trying to learn concepts. I find high school or bio 101 focuses less on arcane details and more on basic structure.

A lot of hysteria and hand wringing and gnashing of teeth here for what I would consider a generally rational group. Personally, I will panic when it's time to panic.

Nassim Taleb has an interesting brief take on thinking about pandemic risks: https://www.academia.edu/41743064/Syste ... rus_A_Note (scroll down on site to read without downloading)

@Jacob - You mean this thread? If you're looking for the most comprehensive, best-bang-for-your-buck and time, $7 textbook, I'd give the same answer: Molecular Biology of the Cell. 4th Ed. (2002) is $8.50 w/ shipping from what I can see. Looking at its table of contents, it goes from the basics to immune system/pathogens in 25 chapters. Granted, not everything in the preceding 23 chapters would be required reading (eyeballing it at maybe half, plus the first few chapters you might be able to skim because they're easy.) I haven't read this book personally, but I know others (professionals) who have during their education, and they love it.

Two notes: First, it might make sense to "splurge" and spend $17 for the 2007 5th Ed. The 6th and most current edition (and $$$) is 2014. I say that because cell biology has really exploded recently, and while the basics have been known for a long time, certain sections like molecular genetics will be dated in the 4th Ed. Plenty useful, but e.g. no CRISPR et al. Be aware of what you're getting with a used 5th Ed., though, as it looks like some reviews mention that some of the last chapters on the book are on an additional DVD, and those could be the immune system/pathogen sections...so make sure that's included.
Second, even though it's a fairly massive book (1616 pages), you could probably power through it (or at least the relevant sections) in maybe two weeks. [I'm making assumptions based on what I remember about your reading habits.] The rate limiter is less likely to be getting through the material but rather digesting it. That would be an absolutely gargantuan info-dump and hats off to you for even attempting it.

Personally, I will panic when it's time to panic.

This isn't panic. This is group voyeurism, and typical healthy INTJ/doomer anticipation.

Emergency checklist?

Check.

Backup checklist?

Check.

This potential emergency checklist?

Check.

Backup checklist for this potential emergency?

Check.

In case you were wondering what the last items on the last list were, disposable faceshields, and an additional six chocolate bars from trader Joe's.

Sometimes a doomer marries a doomer.

I, like most folks here, have an intuitive feel for exponential growth. I know how inadequate our society's defenses to this threat are. But I am also aware that we have about a dozen cases of plague a year in the states, and we've had Ebola here twice in the last decade. And I am still here, unaffected.

Maybe this will go like SARS, (really bad things happening very far from me, and therefore easily dismissed a few years later as insignificant) and maybe not.

But either way, I will eat chocolate.

This is definitely INTJ panic, which is a subdued form of panic compared with the general panicky population. You're right, it consists of checklists (turtles) all the way down and stockpiling lentils. If the Wuhan kills me then please put on my tombstone:

Here lies an INTJ who neglected his checklists and legumes

To be honest, I am quite scared, and what scares me is the impossibility of containing it. The US and UK gvts have held emergency meetings, the WHO has declared it a world health emergency. US travel warnings are at "DONT GO and we hope you can get a commercial carrier out, cause if you can, you should gtfo."

The situation is definitely serious. I think this will become a pandemic. Developed countries might be better prepared once it hits, but unless this thing mutates, it will sweep through the entire developing world and there's nothing you can do. What do you do to hold its spread in India, who are reporting their first cases? Or in the poorer parts of Mongolia, Russia and eastern europe? It's already infected more people in 2 months than SARS did in a year.

It is both highly contagious and it's a really really shitty illness that kills anyone whose immune system isn't up to par. Deaths are 3x recoveries at ground zero. I think it's definitely time to pray if you're religious. May this thing mutate into something else, and soon.

Edit: lol @dof that yale course you recommended is good but really doesn't help with the panic hahaha

I already gave up the responsability of handling this plague to my immune system, because avoiding exposure is close to impossible.
I would just find it very stupid to starve or die of diarhea due to drinking spolied water, when those possibility could be greatly reduced by respleninshing my supplies now instead of in a few month. So virtually no cost to avoid a non zero probability catastrophic hazard.

Point of interest, the co-worker in the cube behind me was working in the hospital the first patient is in, on the day he came in, and went through the emergency room around the same time as he was admitted. Two cubes in another direction is a coworker whose wife works in that hospital.

I have masks, and I haven't even shaved, yet. That's how worried I am. Though I am far more diligent in my flu prevention than normal.

Wash hands, alot. Use paper towels to touch the faucet and door, things like that. Measures that seem a little germophobic to me, but seems prudent, right now. It is flu season, after all.

The situation could get really, really bad. But it isn't currently, and I have ways to mitigate the worst of it.

But we have been here before and things worked out fine.

So no. No panic. Just extra alertness.

And some dark amusement.

@riggerjack - Does your company have those anti-bacterial wipes ? We have a big tub of them and I like to spend most friday afternoons cleaning my desk, and any colleague's who has gone home sick, and things like the kettle handle and biscuit box. It's very therapeutic and satisfying, and especially important if hot desking is prevalent.

No, just a wall mounted hand sanitizer dispenser, that never seems to get cleaned...

I have a spray bottle of alcohol to mist and wipe things down, should times get tough. My cage is my cage, alone, though who knows what happens after hours...

But as of right now, I just use my eyeglass cleaning wipes for my mouse/keyboard once a week, and call it good. And hand sanitizer, though I don't like the way it feels or smells. (Note to world: not every damned hygiene product needs a fragrance added! That's the point of hygiene. )