Yesterday they had a feature in the radio, that stated that the ice at the northcap is at a record thinness and will probably melt further until september. September being the month when customarily the thickness is measured as that time is when the ice is usually the thinnest and will gain some thickness in the following month.
This was not expected and scientists thought the current models not accurate enough. Being scientists they base another model on these findings and projected that at current rates, the cap will be gone in 10 years.
Well, I think models are never accurate, being models - still, I also mistrust "current rates" - so it could also easily be 5 years that the caps are gone (or 15).
In my worldview that results in a whole lot of additional water in the ocean. Thinking about dikes and that apparently nobody had expected this, I wonder what will happen to certain islands or coastal regions (e.g. the Netherlands, Vanuatu, Hawaii etc.).
Additionally I wonder, wouldn´t it be wiser if I rather skilled up than saved up now - to get more free time now to learn valuable skills, than get money for those hours.
Admittedly I´m also concerned because I feel so helpless about this - sure I am driving more with the bike, and will be more and more frugal & doing recycling but, it feels kind of futile because it´s such a small scale.
And I don´t see me going around and convincing other people of the problem, as it needs 98% of other information to change a existing worldview.
tl;dr
Apparently the north-cap is smelting faster than expected - 10 years at current rates and they´re gone - what should one do to be prepared - save more money now or get more skills now?
Bonus: what could be done on a large skale to keep islands or the Netherlands from drowing?
Skill up against the flood?
I'd say both skill up and save up.
Most of the more survival-geared/ DIY skills help you with saving actually (learning how to cook, learning how to repair things or even learning how to survive in the wild).
But I see your point.
Living in the Netherlands as well (and in the Western part at that), I wouldn't mind learning a bit more about water-works and perhaps even more general hydrology either.
As for convincing other people: I am a big supporting of the tipping point theory. You 'simply' need to reach a critical mass (of people) before change happens. And initiatives like Transition Towns and more interest in consuming less and more consciously (consuminderen) convince me that there is a growing amount of people interested in these things.
It's going slow, but we might actually be getting somewhere.
But that's a bit besides the point. Skills or money - both. But skills more if you believe that things are going to get nasty. After all, what's money worth when shit (water) really hits the fan, eh?
Most of the more survival-geared/ DIY skills help you with saving actually (learning how to cook, learning how to repair things or even learning how to survive in the wild).
But I see your point.
Living in the Netherlands as well (and in the Western part at that), I wouldn't mind learning a bit more about water-works and perhaps even more general hydrology either.
As for convincing other people: I am a big supporting of the tipping point theory. You 'simply' need to reach a critical mass (of people) before change happens. And initiatives like Transition Towns and more interest in consuming less and more consciously (consuminderen) convince me that there is a growing amount of people interested in these things.
It's going slow, but we might actually be getting somewhere.
But that's a bit besides the point. Skills or money - both. But skills more if you believe that things are going to get nasty. After all, what's money worth when shit (water) really hits the fan, eh?
-
George the original one
- Posts: 5406
- Joined: Wed Jul 28, 2010 3:28 am
- Location: Wettest corner of Orygun
Skills regarding flooding: geology/geography/meteorology, politics, create a plan
Questions to ask yourself:
1) How much sea level rise can occur before it will affect your region?
2) How strong are the tidal effects in your region?
3) How strong are the storm effects in your region?
4) What will happen to food/housing in your region when it is affected by flooding?
5) What will the government do in an emergency?
6) Do you have access to a boat or will you move to higher ground?
Questions to ask yourself:
1) How much sea level rise can occur before it will affect your region?
2) How strong are the tidal effects in your region?
3) How strong are the storm effects in your region?
4) What will happen to food/housing in your region when it is affected by flooding?
5) What will the government do in an emergency?
6) Do you have access to a boat or will you move to higher ground?
answers
1 half of our country (the Netherlands) is below sea-level. Allready for a thousand years so we are trained to defend against high waters. Windmills once, now enormous diesel pumps.
2 can be strong ( a guess of mine: about 5 yards between + and -)
3 no hurricanes, but westerly storms occur and pushes sea levels higher
4 flooding will stop delivery food, houses will be partly under water
5 we had last emergency in 1953, which costs many lives and enormous damage, since then the government made the Deltaplan. All dykes were rised, and the coast was made safer by closing many sea-entries. We have so called water-boards who have special tax-powers. Every house/land owner pays directly to these boards. All this money is used to the defence against water and the rising of the sea levels
6 I have a boat and a place in much higher grounds.
1 half of our country (the Netherlands) is below sea-level. Allready for a thousand years so we are trained to defend against high waters. Windmills once, now enormous diesel pumps.
2 can be strong ( a guess of mine: about 5 yards between + and -)
3 no hurricanes, but westerly storms occur and pushes sea levels higher
4 flooding will stop delivery food, houses will be partly under water
5 we had last emergency in 1953, which costs many lives and enormous damage, since then the government made the Deltaplan. All dykes were rised, and the coast was made safer by closing many sea-entries. We have so called water-boards who have special tax-powers. Every house/land owner pays directly to these boards. All this money is used to the defence against water and the rising of the sea levels
6 I have a boat and a place in much higher grounds.
-
BeyondtheWrap
- Posts: 598
- Joined: Thu Jul 22, 2010 3:38 pm
- Location: NYC
You could always watch this:
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Waterworld
for pointers of what the future world will be like. You can 'obtain' the view here:
Waterworld[1995]DvDrip[Eng] HarrHarrr (download torrent) - TPB
http://thepiratebay.se/torrent/4748215/
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Waterworld
for pointers of what the future world will be like. You can 'obtain' the view here:
Waterworld[1995]DvDrip[Eng] HarrHarrr (download torrent) - TPB
http://thepiratebay.se/torrent/4748215/
@beyondthewrap and anomie
We have in the low part of the Netherlands one of the biggest commercial harbours of the world -Rotterdam- gateway to Europe!
+ our main towns are in those parts: Amsterdam, Rotterdam, the Hague, Haarlem, Dordrecht: more than a half of our population of 16 million lives there.
So you gave a good suggestion but....
We have in the low part of the Netherlands one of the biggest commercial harbours of the world -Rotterdam- gateway to Europe!
+ our main towns are in those parts: Amsterdam, Rotterdam, the Hague, Haarlem, Dordrecht: more than a half of our population of 16 million lives there.
So you gave a good suggestion but....
You can use this map, in the US anyway, to figure out what the odds of certain places being under water will be in the future:
http://sealevel.climatecentral.org/surgingseas/
http://sealevel.climatecentral.org/surgingseas/
-
jennypenny
- Posts: 6858
- Joined: Sun Jul 03, 2011 2:20 pm
@MikeBOS--Interesting site. With only a 1 ft rise, all 3 of my siblings' houses are under water. And my in-laws'. Hmm, I might have to include my extended family in my prepping plans after all.
@Jacob--If I wanted to *enlighten* someone about climate change, which sites do the best job presenting facts without hype? I've had success on other issues with sites like Do the Math. That combination of tone and facts seems to get the point across. I seem to be getting through on environmental issues, permaculture, off-grid living, and alternative energy sources, but climate change is still a really hard sell.
@Jacob--If I wanted to *enlighten* someone about climate change, which sites do the best job presenting facts without hype? I've had success on other issues with sites like Do the Math. That combination of tone and facts seems to get the point across. I seem to be getting through on environmental issues, permaculture, off-grid living, and alternative energy sources, but climate change is still a really hard sell.
-
jacob
- Site Admin
- Posts: 15995
- Joined: Fri Jun 28, 2013 8:38 pm
- Location: USA, Zone 5b, Koppen Dfa, Elev. 620ft, Walkscore 77
- Contact:
@jennypenny - The IPCC reports are readable to the interested layman. The Executive summaries are even easier to understand. IPCC tends to be a bit conservative in their predictions. I also think that Jeremy Grantham of GMO (read the Q2 letter) does a good job.
A major issue is that climate change (like a few other fields) have been turned into a question of faith rather than science. Hence it's more a question of "who says it" than "what it says." Postmodern humans show little in terms of critical thinking skills. I think Grantham gets through to many who otherwise wouldn't accept the science because he happens to be a successful investor. On the flip side, many are in denial because they listen to popular radio talk show hosts.
A major issue is that climate change (like a few other fields) have been turned into a question of faith rather than science. Hence it's more a question of "who says it" than "what it says." Postmodern humans show little in terms of critical thinking skills. I think Grantham gets through to many who otherwise wouldn't accept the science because he happens to be a successful investor. On the flip side, many are in denial because they listen to popular radio talk show hosts.
Yes, but you know that successful investors who do not tow the line are obviously possessed with Satanic powers, like George Soros. 
The problem I have always had with this issue is that the deniers are obviously wrong, but the climatologists are too quick to think that they can predict what the future will hold for a warming world. I don't think that anyone really knows. It will be positive for some and negative for others, but the future prediction business is frought with uncertainty. I have been tempted to buy farmland in Canada, however. Grantham's analysis suggests that North America will benefit markedly due to precipitous declines in other places.
The problem I have always had with this issue is that the deniers are obviously wrong, but the climatologists are too quick to think that they can predict what the future will hold for a warming world. I don't think that anyone really knows. It will be positive for some and negative for others, but the future prediction business is frought with uncertainty. I have been tempted to buy farmland in Canada, however. Grantham's analysis suggests that North America will benefit markedly due to precipitous declines in other places.
Thanks everybody for your replies.
Obviously I forgot about the floating, still the underlying question was: wadda ya do when the sealevels rise and the dams breaks in a worst case scenario.
I sit in a region where it´s forecasted that we´re very probably going to be dry. I though more about, well, if I´m "safe" - I probably still have to deal with traumatised flood-fleeters, that want food, shelter and a new life.
I´m not thinking about shoot-outs rather how can an increased swell of people best be managed and what kind of skills do I need then - or is money then a better idea. And I think 5-15 years is a short timeframe. Hence the question: is it better to develop skills now and work a little less to have the time to do so.
Maybe it´s comparabel to when Germans fled from what is now Poland but without the soldiers.
Still - to move away is only insofar good when it´s done way ahead of such a worst case scenario, otherwise one is almost as good as a fleeting person but with the money intact.
Obviously I forgot about the floating, still the underlying question was: wadda ya do when the sealevels rise and the dams breaks in a worst case scenario.
I sit in a region where it´s forecasted that we´re very probably going to be dry. I though more about, well, if I´m "safe" - I probably still have to deal with traumatised flood-fleeters, that want food, shelter and a new life.
I´m not thinking about shoot-outs rather how can an increased swell of people best be managed and what kind of skills do I need then - or is money then a better idea. And I think 5-15 years is a short timeframe. Hence the question: is it better to develop skills now and work a little less to have the time to do so.
Maybe it´s comparabel to when Germans fled from what is now Poland but without the soldiers.
Still - to move away is only insofar good when it´s done way ahead of such a worst case scenario, otherwise one is almost as good as a fleeting person but with the money intact.
-
jacob
- Site Admin
- Posts: 15995
- Joined: Fri Jun 28, 2013 8:38 pm
- Location: USA, Zone 5b, Koppen Dfa, Elev. 620ft, Walkscore 77
- Contact:
@Marlene - Looking at what happened during Katrina is a good way to go. The consequence of climate change is that things like that will happen more often (I often wonder what frequency it will take before the public at large wakes up? Every decade? Every few years? Every year?).
So what happened...
1) Many who either stayed put or tried to escape in the last minute died. Being aware of the severity of the problem is crucial. If authorities say evacuate, do so. Be in a position, where this is actually possible. What I mean is having a plan for what to do with the 500L aquarium, the grandmother who can't walk, the bunnies in the shed.
2) Many lost their local jobs because the city was destroyed. Hence they moved lsewhere and became unemployed. As a secondary effect, they took up jobs that otherwise would have gone to people already living there.
3) Some ended up taking in survivors. I don't think this was mandatory, but there was a tax deduction later on for those who did.
4) For almost every contingency, it's smart to carry a surplus of prescription drugs (if any). Diabetics don't want to run out of insulin, etc.
So these are all strategical "skills". I don't think there's much need for technical skills. If such are needed, it's because of really bad planning ... e.g. the ground floor is flooded and one has to break out of the roof.
As with all disasters, being fit (climb down a rope, run up a few floors with of stairs) is one of the most important factors.
In the long run, climate change will be costly (because the public and its politicians chose to do nothing for too long). Expect a drain on the economy of several percent or even more. Particularly food prices will be impacted. Expect your food budget to double (less if meat spare, more if meat heavy). I recommend storing several months worth of food (We're starting to do this ourselves) to smooth out supply shocks.
Oh, and don't buy your next house in the subtropics/mediteranean unless you like living in what will become a desert. When relocating, always go north (or south if below the equator).
TL;DR: You need strategy more than skills.
So what happened...
1) Many who either stayed put or tried to escape in the last minute died. Being aware of the severity of the problem is crucial. If authorities say evacuate, do so. Be in a position, where this is actually possible. What I mean is having a plan for what to do with the 500L aquarium, the grandmother who can't walk, the bunnies in the shed.
2) Many lost their local jobs because the city was destroyed. Hence they moved lsewhere and became unemployed. As a secondary effect, they took up jobs that otherwise would have gone to people already living there.
3) Some ended up taking in survivors. I don't think this was mandatory, but there was a tax deduction later on for those who did.
4) For almost every contingency, it's smart to carry a surplus of prescription drugs (if any). Diabetics don't want to run out of insulin, etc.
So these are all strategical "skills". I don't think there's much need for technical skills. If such are needed, it's because of really bad planning ... e.g. the ground floor is flooded and one has to break out of the roof.
As with all disasters, being fit (climb down a rope, run up a few floors with of stairs) is one of the most important factors.
In the long run, climate change will be costly (because the public and its politicians chose to do nothing for too long). Expect a drain on the economy of several percent or even more. Particularly food prices will be impacted. Expect your food budget to double (less if meat spare, more if meat heavy). I recommend storing several months worth of food (We're starting to do this ourselves) to smooth out supply shocks.
Oh, and don't buy your next house in the subtropics/mediteranean unless you like living in what will become a desert. When relocating, always go north (or south if below the equator).
TL;DR: You need strategy more than skills.
@Jacob: Thanks for your analysis! Much appreciated and giving me a clearer picture of what I need to do.
About a wider audience waking up: I think it has got to do with how often does it occur in a row. There are some towns in Germany that due to high-water in three years (read: flooding city centers or almost so) almost in a row woke up to manage the water upstream, I think with full backing of the people.
@JasonR: Had to laugh out loud several times - Aquaman shooting the hostage, indeed... Thanks for the book recommendation, I will look into that.
I think the picture in my mind was like thousands of people migrating land-inward all of a sudden. So I pictured highly increased demand on food / shelter / (wood)-fuel laying a kind of waste to the first few (hundred?) miles of the dry hinterland, if not managed properly.
I have the "high-minded" stuff in my mind, because I have the notion, that functioning communities of some sort (read e.g. neighbourhoods) are one of the better ways to go, so I´m highly interested in such stuff. Maybe that´s also just my E(motional) side talking. Maybe I feel different because Europe is kinda small, if the worst dam break would happen.
@all: thank you for your posts - having to refine my question and reading your great answers provided me with relevant insights in this.
About a wider audience waking up: I think it has got to do with how often does it occur in a row. There are some towns in Germany that due to high-water in three years (read: flooding city centers or almost so) almost in a row woke up to manage the water upstream, I think with full backing of the people.
@JasonR: Had to laugh out loud several times - Aquaman shooting the hostage, indeed... Thanks for the book recommendation, I will look into that.
I think the picture in my mind was like thousands of people migrating land-inward all of a sudden. So I pictured highly increased demand on food / shelter / (wood)-fuel laying a kind of waste to the first few (hundred?) miles of the dry hinterland, if not managed properly.
I have the "high-minded" stuff in my mind, because I have the notion, that functioning communities of some sort (read e.g. neighbourhoods) are one of the better ways to go, so I´m highly interested in such stuff. Maybe that´s also just my E(motional) side talking. Maybe I feel different because Europe is kinda small, if the worst dam break would happen.
@all: thank you for your posts - having to refine my question and reading your great answers provided me with relevant insights in this.