Future of Artificial Intelligence

[7Wannabe5]

A human incapable of a given level of abstraction has/will always be dependent upon tools, scaffolding, other humans to perform tasks requiring that level of abstraction. However, this does not imply that the use of such tools/scaffolding/social-support will tend towards reducing capabilities. For example, because I have spent so many hours tutoring students in math at a variety of levels, it is obvious to me that pencil and paper are also scaffolding tools. IOW, a peer-level/collaborative interaction with an AI is not all that different than utilizing paper and pencil in order to solve a math problem; by projecting your thoughts on to paper, you are better able to utilize yourself as your own peer. And this is towards why the practice of utilizing AI as a peer-collaborator is so strongly recommended. Alternatively utilizing AI as either a servant or an authority will tend more towards the creation of failures/dependencies or odd nonsense. For example, when my calculator dependent students make simple algebra problems more difficult than they should be by generating decimal format coefficients vs. making appropriate use of a calculator when a relationship is most appropriately expressed with decimal format coefficients.

Or, more generally, if you don't know whether or not you are making appropriate use of AI (or any other tool/scaffolding/social-support) then that itself is indicative of your innate level of MHC, and if you do know then it doesn't matter all that much.

[Jean]

@jacob When your signal is too low, remembering things is still faster than googling them.
What i would be afraid to lose, is not the ability to remember thing per se, but the ability to attach thing to context well enough to make remembering them relatively easy.
On a similar note to your experience, when my dad studied mechanical engineering, he had to make a perfect steel cube with just a file and a micrometer this cube is still on his office.
Also, while a big part of the next generation might lose some ability to think, I think that thinking is inherently rewarding for a lot of people.
Maybe abstract thinking will become a hobby? I mean, their are people who carry heavy stuff on their back as a hobby.

[Henry]

You used to use credit credit cars until the credit card companies realized they can use you. You used to search the internet, until the internet providers realized that the internet can search you. If you want to have a tragically ironic blockbuster movie moment where you take a deep breath and wipe the sweat off your brow and earnestly believe that you really killed the monster dead, go ahead. But Iet's skip to the ending first because after all, it's really not a spoiler alert. You do not use AI. AI uses you.

[7Wannabe5]

@Henry:

Sure, just like wheat, corn, and rice used us to dominate the fields. Still, as of this moment in history, a human can live without credit cards, internet browsers, AI, or Field Corn 2, but they still need some of us humans (how many might be an interesting calculation.) Although, obviously, solar-powered robots that can design and operate solar cell plants and solar cell powered robot plants may alter this paradigm.

AI is also already capable of designing novel viruses that could potentially decimate the human population. All that it needs is a few rogue humans and a few million dollars to build the bio-tech capabilities.

[Henry]

Still, as of this moment in history, a human can live without credit cards, internet browsers, AI, or Field Corn 2,

Corn aside, in principle yes, but in practice, no. Unless you really put a lot of effort into it. Like Herculean effort. And I think with AI, unlike credit cards or the internet, it's not like WWI when not joing the army was viewed as an act of cowardice, like your just fighting cultural norms, it's whether you believe you can survive a Tsunami. And the answer is ultimately, no, you won't survive. Maybe your house will still be standing, but everything surrounding it, the bridges, the department stores, most of your neighbor's houses, the basic infrastructure surrounding your house will succumb to its power. And that's my point. You cannot harness the power of a Tsunami. Sure it can initially water your corn fields and you can fill your wells and you think "Look, I can use this". But by the time the wind and the rain have realized their full power, all your shit is gone. We're early in the storm. Listening to the weatherman that most suits our views on whether there even is a storm. Fair enough. I'm betting big on it being real and kicking everyone's ass sooner than they thought. And I know Elon specifically has been saying five years for 20 years but I think we are now somewhere in the five years.

[7Wannabe5]

@Henry:

So, you are betting on it being big enough to change just about everything while leaving the possibility of achieving and retaining profit from your personal stock market investments in it intact? One fun fact about tsunamis is that their impact follows a power law distribution. So, I wouldn't place my bet on Wall Street level tower being much more secure than Main Street level store front. I am only partially just-amusing-myself with my current "Will also obliterate Capitalism." stance in the AI discussion/debate.

[Henry]

So, you are betting on it being big enough to change just about everything while leaving the possibility of achieving and retaining profit from your personal stock market investments in it intact?

Yes. As long as it stays on course. If it turns in the wrong direction, it won't matter any ways. Considering the multi trillion dollar power behind it, it's hard not to be Manichaean about it.

[7Wannabe5]

Considering the multi trillion dollar power behind it

Yet, those representing this multi trillion dollar power behind it are also the ones most frequently making public appearances to declare their own lack of control. I mean, this could just be part of some Machiavellian 5-D chess game they are playing or it could just be attention-seeking any-press-is-good-press, but...? Let's say it's just 30% likely that Even They don't have a solid grip on likely outcome space, how's that tsunami looking now? AI doesn't require robots to take down financial markets, because they share the same life blood.

[jacob]

And I know Elon specifically has been saying five years for 20 years but I think we are now somewhere in the five years.

Alternatively, somewhere in the 20+ years?

[Henry]

Let's say it's just 30% likely that Even They don't have a solid grip on likely outcome space, how's that tsunami looking now? AI doesn't require robots to take down financial markets, because they share the same life blood.

As I said, if the 30% chance happens, it doesn't matter if I invested in Tesla or indexes, especially since Vanguard owns 7.5% of TSLA. If nothing happens for the next 20 years, I think the most I'll lose is opportunity costs and probably so much board cred I'll have to go back to trolling fat girl sites.

[zbigi]

George Horz ("celebrity programmer" who, amongst other things, ran his own small FSD AI company) predicts that dollar value of models, and dollar value of companies working on models "will likely go to zero" (due to nature of software), and the last stop in the AI value chain will be chip makers.

[Henry]

A few years back I watched an interview between George Horz and Lex Fridman. George's real claim to fame is that he hacked an IPHONE as a teenager. He is no doubt a genius. But in retrospect, although just a few years back, the discussion between Horz and Fridman (who was originally an MIT student working on robotics and self driving) which primarily focused on autonomous driving, is anachronistic due to it taking place in the year two thousand whatever BN (before Nividia). I wouldn't argue with his future vision, but with these types of genius qua futuristic guys, they don't give specific time frames, so they are never wrong.

[7Wannabe5]

I found this recent take, "There's No Stopping This Train: AI, Power, and the Collapse of Old Systems" by Angelo Robles, author of "The Effective Family Office: Best Practices and Beyond" rather interesting. It almost philosophically intersects with ERE at some junctures:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=9pyf5onvFpA

[Henry]

NVDA all time closing high was $149.41 on January 6. Its 2025 low closing was January 27 at $118.58. Yesterday it closed at $147.90. DeepSeek? DeepSeek!!!!! Deep Seek? I understand this could be in the investment thread but it demonstrates to me that the US Mag 7 are holding their line in the global AI war. However, that could change if the US doesn't address energy increase, especially nuclear, whereas China is creating what is starting to look at an insurmountable lead. As NVDA investor it helps that the most controversial thing Jensen Huang ever did was autograph a chick's boobs (they looked fake which introduces a motorboat load of irony) whereas Elon Musk spreads his seed like a brain damaged sharecropper thinking tornado season provides ideal planting conditions. But underneath Elon Musk is Tesla and I think it's going to do me an economic solid. The Austin Robotaxi introduction went pretty much as planned and ultimately the product not the inventor will be doing the talking. Projections are an 80% decrease in cars on the road by 2055. The automobile industry is at a crossroads. Uber, Lyft, TSLA, Waymo et al are evangelizing the auto consumer with the cost per mile model while the majority of OEM's are still entrenched in a cost per unit model. Car sales will not completely evaporate, but they will significantly diminish. TSLA will be primarily manufacturing based upon consumer demand of their Robotaxi fleet not consumer demand to buy their vehicles. Robots on wheels. Ask a young person whether they would rather drive a car or sit in the backseat of self driving car texting that they are sitting in the back of a self driving car to their friends texting in a self driving car that they are texting in a self driving car and therein lies the future of automobiles. From bubble by bubble to bubble by bubble back home to bubble. Welcome to the bubble machine.

[zbigi]

The difference between the FSD taxis and now is the cost of driver's wage. Let's assume that it's 50% of fare. Will getting a 50% rebate on taxis make everyone abandon their cars and go taxi only? There are plenty of people already who can afford taxis at current prices, but prefer to drive their own cars.

[Henry]

Robotaxi requires a country by country analysis, and in countries as diversified as the US, region by region analysis. Israel's taxi cab drivers are united to such a degree that robotaxis may never arrive. China's cost per mile is already so low, robotaxis may not provide enough of an economic benefit to make it worthy for any providers. In the US, San Fransisco has already evidenced that people will ditch their cars for robotaxis based upon cost analysis. They are also more tech savvy so the issue of driverless is not so great a hurdle. That's why robotaxi started in Austin as opposed to Florida. Cost was $4.20 flat fee. Seems like a deal to me. Do work in the back seat as opposed to having to focus on the road. That factors in the analysis as well.

[Scott 2]

A good overview of how to approach what's currently available with basic consumer AI:

https://open.substack.com/pub/oneuseful ... uick-guide

[Henry]

So you're not biking the planet like Stasher or walking the earth Kungfu like, but using a driverless, electric vehicle seems to fall within the ERE mindset of avoiding car ownership, no? You longer need a car, car insurance, gas, auto repair, a garage, a parking space, the tightening noose of a depreciating asset succumbing to the law of thermodynamics or whatever fucking natural law is responsible for shit falling apart over time. You cut back your environmental footprint if that brings you the warm and fuzzies. I've heard complaints that FSD doesn't drive as well in the rain. Well, guess what. Neither does Danica Fucking Patrick. It will also prove safer. No drunk driving, no driving over the speed limit, no distracted driving, no fucking old people legally protected to do shit they are no longer capable of doing. You can call your mom or do your nails or complete your spreadsheet or rob a bank without the fear that your getaway driver will get fucking spooked when the alarm goes off. You can look at the foliage or yell shit at people for no fucking reason. Ok, so the main guy behind it is fucking loopy or holds views you're not fond of. Well, he also happens to be the richest guy on the planet and he didn't get there through selling drugs, running weapons, or closing his eyes and fucking Doris Duke.

[Lemur]

@7w5 goblin.tools (website) gets recommended as a resource to assist with adhd/autism; haven't checked it out personally but i keep encountering the recommendation.

@ertyu

Thanks for sharing this. This might be incredibly useful to my brother who has Autism/Adhd comorbidity.