What do you think the USA would look like in 20 years?

[ducknald_don]

Suffice it to say, I am probably much more pessimistic in my outlook than those who have posted above. Why? Probably because I think 1) the statistical likelihood of at least one incredibly disruptive vertical event/situation is high for the US, and 2) I think a lot more nodes in the US and global system-of-systems are brittle rather than flexible. The big fear is a chain reaction of vertical events that takes out too many large-scale nodes. I have no idea how likely that would be, but I don't rule it out.

I used to think that, I was quite pessimistic then Covid happened. The system was much more responsive than I would have expected. I know there were problems, political disagreements and plenty of misinformation but looking back on it now most of that was trivial.

That's not to say the US won't get relatively poorer over time, that seems inevitable as the rest of the world catches up and competes for the same resources and markets that America has traditionally had a hold on.

[chenda]

Some historians have argued that US history is better understood when it's viewed as an unusually wealthy Latin American nation rather than an anglosphere nation. This isn't meant as a criticism (or a commentary on immigration trends) rather that's it's history has been deeply intwined with Latin America in a way which has often been overlooked in historical narratives.

[7Wannabe5]

it's history has been deeply intwined with Latin America in a way which has often been overlooked in historical narratives.

Yes, but this is much more true for some regions of the U.S. I read an essay a number of years ago that argued that there are some areas of the American West that have never achieved a population density of white European settlers to the extent that an authentic cultural claim is merited. OTOH, in the year 1620, when the Mayflower first landed on North East coast of U.S., the population density of England was already as high* as the current population density of the U.S. in 2025. So, their advanced technology and urban-human diseases pretty much obliterated the Native Americans of the region as they rapidly inhabited the Northern Colonies. OTOH, the population density of humans of European ancestry currently living in the state of New Mexico isn't much higher than the population density of England during the Bronze Age. This has fairly large political ramification in the U.S., because states that remain very rural have disproportionate sway per capita.

I would also suggest that population density and affluence are the two factors most likely to describe human culture anywhere.

*This is also an important factor when considering why energy usage per capita in the U.S. is higher.

[chenda]

@7w5 - Yes my observations as a tourist were New England has a certain old world feel, a lot of architectural heritage and a certain amount of picturesqueness (as opposed to sublime grandeur) I believe a lot of the forests of New England were previously open farmland, which was abandoned in the 20th (?) century as farmers moved west, and whole farms and villages were abandoned. You can apparently still find the remains of dry stone walls and buildings deep in the woods today.

Australia, by contrast, although about as big as the continuous US, is even more urbanised than Britain with a population less than half the size.

[Henry]

Some historians have argued that US history is better understood when it's viewed as an unusually wealthy Latin American nation rather than an anglosphere nation. This isn't meant as a criticism (or a commentary on immigration trends) rather that's it's history has been deeply intwined with Latin America in a way which has often been overlooked in historical narratives.

This is a Howard Zinnish People's History of The US counter-narrative Yes, there are geographical pockets within the land mass now designated as the United States of America that are highly influenced by Latin American culture because of historical shit that dates back before the founding, but the intellectual roots of the United States of America's political and economic systems are Euro-centric. Ok, we stole the land and put a Europeanish natural lawish deistic minimalistic enlightenment protestant alchemic grid over it. Sorry. But time to move on.

[chenda]

@Henry - Greg Grandin has also argued for this, although I have no strong views either way, my knowledge of American history is rather basic. One could argue though that Latin American is equally Euro-centric, albeit of a southern European kind. I don't no how influential the indigenous civilisations in Latin America were.

Although its interesting to speculate how things would have worked out if the British and Iberian empires had inverted, a Hispanic North America and a British South America. Some say North America has lots of geographic advantages over it's southern twin, (rivers flowing in the right direction, natural resources in the right place etc) Others argue the quasi-feudal culture of early modern Iberia put Latin America at a disadvantage, resulting in economic divergence from the north.

[black_son_of_gray]

I used to think that, I was quite pessimistic then Covid happened. The system was much more responsive than I would have expected. I know there were problems, political disagreements and plenty of misinformation but looking back on it now most of that was trivial.

Fair point, although I might highlight a key word there: "The system was much more responsive than I would have expected." Covid's impacts began 5 years ago, and some aspects of the system are very different today vs. then. No man ever steps in the same river twice and all that.

[Jean]

I wrote something similar to chenda, but as i didn't see it again, I assumed it got deleted due to being too political. But it might also be some forum error.
So to answer the original question, I think it will go toward Brazil. ie, inequality will get wider, and you will go toward an alternation of corrupt right wing populists and corrupt left wing populists. Unless the population of the USA has something that most latin america don't have.

[ertyu]

I think it will go toward Brazil.

I vote South Africa rather than Brazil.