Investments Trade Log

[urgud]

Nov. 8, 2023: Bought iShares MSCI ACWI UCITS ETF USD (Acc) @ 64.58 EUR
Jan. 5, 2024: Bought iShares MSCI ACWI UCITS ETF USD (Acc) @ 67.85 EUR
Jan. 8, 2024: Bought iShares MSCI ACWI UCITS ETF USD (Acc) @ 67.87 EUR
Feb. 1, 2024: Bought iShares MSCI ACWI UCITS ETF USD (Acc) @ 70.56 EUR
Feb. 8, 2024: Bought iShares MSCI World Small Cap UCITS ETF USD (Acc) @ 6.2926 EUR
Mar. 1, 2024: Bought iShares MSCI ACWI UCITS ETF USD (Acc) @ 73.49 EUR
Mar. 26, 2024: Bought iShares MSCI ACWI UCITS ETF USD (Acc) @75.22 EUR
Jun. 4, 2024: Bought iShares iShares MSCI ACWI UCITS ETF USD (Acc) @ 75.63 EUR

[thedollar]

As of this minute you have made $14,653.00. You can sell and live like JLF for two years.

$65,000.00 now or nearly 10 JLFs. What a ride.

[thedollar]

What are the opportunities in this market? A lot of extreme valuations. I'm certainly not buying NVIDIA at these prices (though I'm holding).

META & GOOG comes to mind. They have below 25 forward P/E and strong growth and profitability AND just started paying out dividends. So the downside risk would be low (compared to NVIDIA or Tesla P/Es of 50-100) but the upside pretty good.

[Henry]

TSLA up 43% in 10 days. Bill Gross calling it the newest GameStop. Cathie Wood calling it the ultimate AI play. What company in history has this breadth of opinion. Listen to some, in 10 years there will be mass produced $20K humanoid robots that can wipe your Nana's asshole in the back of her autonomous cyber truck with a chip in her brain thinking she's in a The Red Lobster in Peoria when's she actually lying in a shallow grave on Mars. Other's think it's an overpriced car.

[giskard]

TSLA up 43% in 10 days. Bill Gross calling it the newest GameStop. Cathie Wood calling it the ultimate AI play. What company in history has this breadth of opinion. Listen to some, in 10 years there will be mass produced $20K humanoid robots that can wipe your Nana's asshole in the back of her autonomous cyber truck with a chip in her brain thinking she's in a The Red Lobster in Peoria when's she actually lying in a shallow grave on Mars. Other's think it's an overpriced car.

The question is why would you NOT want to buy the hottest memestock? A new study came out saying gen-Z is MAXXING OUT their 401ks. You think they are buying AT&T or Procter and Gamble stock?

Absolutely not. Tesla could produce nothing at all and Elon Musk could pump it to the stratosphere.

But even better he made an absolutely REDICULOUS BULLET PROOF TRUCK. If you were a rapper wouldnt you buy one? Think about it.



What is Lil Baby holding in that photo?

Bricks of cash.

Memetic programming at its finest. Rene Girard would be crying with joy.

[Henry]

Rene Girard wept over his philosophy like a young mother over a baby casket. But that's a whole other story.

That Lil Baby photo might help sell TSLA stock but it's not helping sell TSlA vehicles. That's the problem with the trucks, it's not increasing TSLA customer base. It's TSLA owners trading up or deciding for the truck against the car.

And memes are good to enhance social media posts but not as way to improve investments profits.

[Seppia]

The Tesla implosion is a matter of when, not if*, but I would never trade against it.
It’s one of those things like bitcoin or gold or cyber monkey pics, there’s few logical reasons why they should be worth as much as they are/were. It’s a manifestation of a certain animal spirit

Still, I’d tend to have more faith in the thing that has been worth a lot for the longest time, purely due to probabilistic reasons.

I’m more confident that gold is going to be worth something not too dissimilar to what is worth today thank say “zombie monkey barfing NFT sells for $2,328,700”

*I should note that I have been (incorrectly) predicting Teslas demise for a while now, but in fairness
- I’ve always said I’d not trade against it for its cult status
- the stock is worth significantly less than its peak in 2021 and all business fundamentals look like those of a meh automaker, whose stocks are worth a fraction

[giskard]

That Lil Baby photo might help sell TSLA stock but it's not helping sell TSLA vehicles.

You keep saying stuff about "selling vehicles" and "profits", we are talking past each other on this stock.

[Henry]

You keep saying stuff about "selling vehicles" and "profits", we are talking past each other on this stock.

A picture of a rap star sitting on the roof of a TSLA cyber truck will have a mimetic effect on those people who want to be a rap star sitting on the roof a TSLA cyber truck flashing wads of cash. It will also have a mimetic effect on those people who don't want to own a car that is owned by a rap star sitting on the roof of a TSLA cyber truck flashing wads of cash. The mimetic effect of people who want to own the stock because other people own the stock is a different mimesis which includes it's corollary, the people who don't want to own the stock because other people own the stock. There is also the mimetic effect of the short sellers betting against TSLA's success. There is also the mimesis of those who hate Elon versus the mimesis of those who love Elon. Mimetic theory can be used as a basis for purchasing a TSLA as well as not purchasing a TSLA. Mimetic theory can be used as a basis for purchasing TSLA stock or not purchasing TSLA stock. I think the extreme volatility in the stock, the car and as well as views towards Elon Musk evidences the competing mimetic effects. So to cast mimetic theory over TSLA as a guarantee of financial success does not give full orb to the complexity of Girard's theory.

[giskard]

A picture of a rap star sitting on the roof of a TSLA cyber truck will have a mimetic effect on those people who want to be a rap star sitting on the roof a TSLA cyber truck flashing wads of cash. It will also have a mimetic effect on those people who don't want to own a car that is owned by a rap star sitting on the roof of a TSLA cyber truck flashing wads of cash. The mimetic effect of people who want to own the stock because other people own the stock is a different mimesis which includes it's corollary, the people who don't want to own the stock because other people own the stock. There is also the mimetic effect of the short sellers betting against TSLA's success. There is also the mimesis of those who hate Elon versus the mimesis of those who love Elon. Mimetic theory can be used as a basis for purchasing a TSLA as well as not purchasing a TSLA. Mimetic theory can be used as a basis for purchasing TSLA stock or not purchasing TSLA stock. I think the extreme volatility in the stock, the car and as well as views towards Elon Musk evidences the competing mimetic effects. So to cast mimetic theory over TSLA as a guarantee of financial success does not give full orb to the complexity of Girard's theory.

Not wrong but let's tally them up:

On the pro side you have:
- physical objects of desire produced and put in front of people in the real world
- social media domination by influencers promoting tesla
- the richest man in the world who owns his own major social media site and viciously attacks short sellers

On the negative side you have:
- bears posting scary blog posts & short reports

[Henry]

Girard's philosophy is based on the paradoxical nature of mediated desire: we at once want to belong and we at once want to distinguish ourselves from others. Not even addressing the dubiousness of what you classify as "pros", it appears that you think the former will/can trump the latter. That's in direct contradiction with the theory. It's not a weight based system. It's an imitative system.

[giskard]

Trade log update:

Did a full size position on RKLB over the summer and it doubled prob going to hold it for a bit to see if we can hit $15. Will scale out of some. I see reddit talking about it a little bit but not enough yet to scare me out. They seem focused on ASTS which is probably maybe done, I would be selling out if I was holding.

In other news many SPACs that IPOd in 2021 are bottomed and starting to creep back up. The liquidity taps are on and the market is climbing a wall of worry and fear. Trying to find stuff that is breaking out but not chase too hard. Little difficult right now when its all bidding.

I'm liking the space trend. Its capturing a lot of attention, and the small market caps can move hard. Some other sectors like this in speculative tech to watch.

[John]

What is the best money market fund to invest nowadays? Any other liquid cash vehicles that you’d recommend for short-term cash parking?

[2Birds1Stone]

@john, if you're based on the USA VUSXX is great because it's fed tax exempt. Currently paying 4.27%

[John]

@john, if you're based on the USA VUSXX is great because it's fed tax exempt. Currently paying 4.27%

Thanks - looks like a good one!

[Lemur]

Sold some US Equity Etf ($60k ~2x years expenses) and put $30k on GLDM (Gold Etf) and $30k on VUSXX. This brings my cash/treasury allocation up to 20% of my portfolio. Gold represents something like 2.72% now. With current valuations and political turmoil, I thought it might be time to get more conservative and cash preserving.

[jacob]

NASDAQ hits correction
S&P500 hits correction
Gold touches $3,000/oz for the first time

[sky]

Reading the tea leaves...
I predict that the US government will take actions to reduce the value of the $USD compared to other currencies. The intent of this action is to make imports more expensive and boost domestic production. Another intent is to reduce the value of US issued debt held outside the US (as well as relieve any debtor). The current administration's belief is that the $USD is being held at a high price level by the use of the $USD as a international exchange currency outside of the USA. By reducing the value of the $USD, the US government hopes to balance the trade deficit.

This policy will result in price inflation. Tariffs will also result in price inflation. The Federal Reserve will not be able to reduce interest rates, and may need to increase interest rates to respond to inflation. This will result in lower equity prices.

To monitor whether this prediction is correct, look at changes in $USD compared to other major currencies, the US consumer price index, and the general track of the major indices.

[2Birds1Stone]

Historically more years will see a correction than not.....

As far as gold goes, it's about time.....we're still a ways from the ATH's of the late 1970's early 1980's.

With the USA asking for a recession via trade wars a bear market this year or next year would not be surprising either.

"Volatility is price of admission. The prize inside are superior longterm returns. You have to pay the price to get the returns. Many aren't." - Morgan Housel

[Stasher]

This past 2 weeks DW and Myself sold 100% of all our etf holdings of XAW which was an all world equity etf with 65% being US stocks. We divested from the US economy to end exposure to Amazon, Meta, Tesla and Trump. We put all of those sale proceeds into VIU with is an all world equity EX North America. Did increase our bond aa % with more ZAG (Canadian bond) to bump us to a 70/30 split during the volatility.