Regret Minimization Framework
Minimizing regret is a sort of stupid "philosophy". Avoiding a negative emotion as a focal point in life. Not the most uplifting. But who cares, kinda. It's been highly useful for me.
I've done things in life that have been scary and hard because if I didn't, I'd know I'd feel like a total lame ass wuss. I wanted it but I didn't try? Talk about ruining your own mental health, speaking from experience.
One of these things was talking in class. I look more extroverted today, but especially in high school, I hated public speaking. Did the fastest thing I could do to get it over with, screw the grade, etc. I punted/gave up on stuff that makes me embarrassed, looking back.
The thing is I did enjoy the content in high school. Teachers picked on me because I was paying attention and interested. I just couldn't handle being the sole focus in the room (this is hard!, imo, without practice). And I realized: my life is going to be super lame (to me) if I don't get over this fear.
So I talked every day in every class in college (during student discussion). 4 years. I didn't miss a day except when a polysci teach forbade the "regulars" from talking. I tried not to be obnoxious about it but I did it to do it.
That skill, developed from minimizing regret, ended up being critical when I was put into board meetings with 3 VCs grilling me about how we're doing restarting their failed startup a year later. That skill was instrumental in learning how to manage social pressure while being myself when I was learning about dating / interrupting a group of people to do a live interview with their friend to see if we're a good match.
Had I given up on that hope and let that fear win, I wouldn't have started my current business or met those VCs, I wouldn't have had the fun meeting people all over the world, living abroad.. I wouldn't have met my wife.
Having doubts and confidence issues about aiming for bigger harder things sounds like the right shape of problem to be aiming for, even if it doesn't feel good.
And with all things, I know later down the path I'll look back and go "eh, that wasn't that hard, it was mostly awesome."
Here's the other thing about regret minimization: it's uncommon. Most people are okay folding on their dreams and they're unwilling to change enough to build a life where they can at least try.
So the real cheat code in regret minimization ends up being that when you're "on the other side" of the wall of fear that most people cannot pass, you meet a lot of really interesting people and when you enter that room to meet them, you walk in having earned your entry because you actually did a hard thing.
That is real confidence. That is real self-esteem. That is how you know you kicked life's ass on your deathbed.
A good life has scary looking shapes on the horizon. Keep running toward them.
// Philosophy brain cannot help but interject here to establish a specific qualification: you really have to want to have the thing you're afraid of, otherwise it's not a regret. I have so much interest in not jumping from a plane with a parachute on me that I'd pay someone to ensure I don't have to! I'll die without regret knowing I didn't experience have to experience X because I never wanted X. Fear alone is insufficient to explain regret.
// Fear + desire + inaction = regret.
// Fear + desire + action = regret minimization.
My side of the mountain
Re: My side of the mountain
Kratky Hydroponics Grow #1
March 13 - Day "4" (3 days of seedling germination)
Day 10
Day 14
Day 18
First Harvest - 4oz
Day 23
Day 25
Second Harvest - 16.6oz
After harvest:
Day 31
Harvest 3 - 8.7oz (7.5oz+1.2oz)
Current:
Talk about a huge success. I was pretty quick to realize that I want to expand production, so I started looking out for cheapo food-grade plastic buckets to utilize. A junker on Craigslist sold me 15 for $3 each.
They were clear enough, though, that they'd grow algae without any sort of protection so I created a jacket for the 6 buckets to start.
Seedlings planted including some really delicious "melon basil" that I saved from last year -- some random thai basil I grew that tastes super duper melon-y so I saved seeds.
Total yield so far: 29.3oz or 1.83lbs
Quality: the best I've ever had? Unreal. I'm growing the platonic ideal of what a swiss chard leaf looks like. You pick them and eat them raw, standing there, and it's more like drinking crunchy vegetable juice than eating greens. Easily the best looking and best tasting produce I've grown. No need to wash the leaves either. So good.
Cost in electricity, roughly: $7.23
If you could taste a photo...
March 13 - Day "4" (3 days of seedling germination)
Day 10
Day 14
Day 18
First Harvest - 4oz
Day 23
Day 25
Second Harvest - 16.6oz
After harvest:
Day 31
Harvest 3 - 8.7oz (7.5oz+1.2oz)
Current:
Talk about a huge success. I was pretty quick to realize that I want to expand production, so I started looking out for cheapo food-grade plastic buckets to utilize. A junker on Craigslist sold me 15 for $3 each.
They were clear enough, though, that they'd grow algae without any sort of protection so I created a jacket for the 6 buckets to start.
Seedlings planted including some really delicious "melon basil" that I saved from last year -- some random thai basil I grew that tastes super duper melon-y so I saved seeds.
Total yield so far: 29.3oz or 1.83lbs
Quality: the best I've ever had? Unreal. I'm growing the platonic ideal of what a swiss chard leaf looks like. You pick them and eat them raw, standing there, and it's more like drinking crunchy vegetable juice than eating greens. Easily the best looking and best tasting produce I've grown. No need to wash the leaves either. So good.
Cost in electricity, roughly: $7.23
If you could taste a photo...
Re: My side of the mountain
Skills vs Solutions
I've realized that I'm a solutions guy these days. I do not really care how it happens, I just want that solution.
In entrepreneurship, this is mission critical. Things move fast and speed is rewarded. A problem solution loop ad infinitum.
I want cheap high quality produce that doesn't inhibit freedom-to? Kratky hydroponics.
I want a sauna that functions asap? 120v 15amp tiny stove, DIY everything, cedar fencing planks, no trim, plenty of exposed reflectix insulation.. my little hot space ship.
There are plenty of points in life where solutions, not skills, are straightforwardly the right place to aim.
Skills are .. endless. There is no "completion".
Musicality, critical thinking, writing, route finding, 1RM deadlifts, parenting.
Skill development does not aim for a final destination necessarily, whereas solution-completion does.
I think I've been a solutions guy more than a skills guy in my life. <-- mild epiphany.
This dichotomy captures, to some degree, the change I hope to enact in my life: aim for skills, pepper solutions/goals/milestones along the way.
\\
I realize I've been daydreaming about solutions/goals/outcomes for the 2025 year to come (where I've been planning to "launch" into my next thing in earnest -- this itself is a whole topic I'm re-evaluating) but I'm not daydreaming about skill development. I'm not imagining being in the place, doing the thing, developing my craft.
When I was super duper single and going out to pick up women 5-7 days a week (sober, spending $0, drinking water and eating almonds from my jacket) I was actually extremely focused on skill development, even if it looked like I was just trying to get laid. I'd spend a month being LOUDER. I'd spend a month saying as little as possible. I'd spend a whole month just focused on eye contact and smiling. A month about asking interesting questions and listening.
Deep development of social skills.
Philosophy class was similar -- I just love the content, full stop, and thought my professors were(are) some of the smartest folks I've ever met. I wanted to learn how to write clearly so I could argue better. I wanted to learn what all these dead folks said about the good life. I wanted to / hope to contribute something to that tradition.
And I'm realizing I don't really have that next "skillset" goal burning in me. I'm not daydreaming about process.
I want to 'be the rockstar' without practicing my instrument.
So it's time to kill those dreams because, frankly, they are self-indulgent dopamine-replacements for actually doing the work. No more thinking about "being XYZ".
Aristotle was right about identity: doing the thing makes you 'be' that type of person. This is real 'becoming'.
The thing is.. I don't think I'm ready to do .. any work. I'm feeling mega lazy -- or maybe I'm butting up against a wall of limiting beliefs that look like the internal monologue of "I'm just chilling out right now".
It feels uncomfortable, frankly, to be in this space. I'm antsy. I did a big thing (FIRE) and now, without even catching my breath, I'm onto planning the next and blowing it up way out of proportion.
But I'm trying to avoid this. The thing I want is actually skills based. I just need to get my headspace switched to "practice" instead of "performance".
But damn, it sucks.
\\
Maybe the right way to think about this is more like sport periodization. I'm in my deload week and I need to STFU and actually accept that I'm not supposed to work hard right now. If I did, I'd hinder my progress.
It just feels kinda wrong, morally, in the "I have one life" sense of things, to not push to/beyond 100% as much as possible.
\\
For 2025, I'm going to orient myself to skill development. I have been muddling over models after good chats with friends and will post something on that soon.
Solutions are good, but instead of "achieve Y" I want to "develop X".
So, for now and the rest of 2024, I'm letting go of that need to "be doing life hard". 2024 is a year for solutions, why not.
\\
I hope this dichotomy represents a useful heuristic for self reflection in others, however unpleasant it is to overlay onto my life these days.
My little sauna space ship:
I've realized that I'm a solutions guy these days. I do not really care how it happens, I just want that solution.
In entrepreneurship, this is mission critical. Things move fast and speed is rewarded. A problem solution loop ad infinitum.
I want cheap high quality produce that doesn't inhibit freedom-to? Kratky hydroponics.
I want a sauna that functions asap? 120v 15amp tiny stove, DIY everything, cedar fencing planks, no trim, plenty of exposed reflectix insulation.. my little hot space ship.
There are plenty of points in life where solutions, not skills, are straightforwardly the right place to aim.
Skills are .. endless. There is no "completion".
Musicality, critical thinking, writing, route finding, 1RM deadlifts, parenting.
Skill development does not aim for a final destination necessarily, whereas solution-completion does.
I think I've been a solutions guy more than a skills guy in my life. <-- mild epiphany.
This dichotomy captures, to some degree, the change I hope to enact in my life: aim for skills, pepper solutions/goals/milestones along the way.
\\
I realize I've been daydreaming about solutions/goals/outcomes for the 2025 year to come (where I've been planning to "launch" into my next thing in earnest -- this itself is a whole topic I'm re-evaluating) but I'm not daydreaming about skill development. I'm not imagining being in the place, doing the thing, developing my craft.
When I was super duper single and going out to pick up women 5-7 days a week (sober, spending $0, drinking water and eating almonds from my jacket) I was actually extremely focused on skill development, even if it looked like I was just trying to get laid. I'd spend a month being LOUDER. I'd spend a month saying as little as possible. I'd spend a whole month just focused on eye contact and smiling. A month about asking interesting questions and listening.
Deep development of social skills.
Philosophy class was similar -- I just love the content, full stop, and thought my professors were(are) some of the smartest folks I've ever met. I wanted to learn how to write clearly so I could argue better. I wanted to learn what all these dead folks said about the good life. I wanted to / hope to contribute something to that tradition.
And I'm realizing I don't really have that next "skillset" goal burning in me. I'm not daydreaming about process.
I want to 'be the rockstar' without practicing my instrument.
So it's time to kill those dreams because, frankly, they are self-indulgent dopamine-replacements for actually doing the work. No more thinking about "being XYZ".
Aristotle was right about identity: doing the thing makes you 'be' that type of person. This is real 'becoming'.
The thing is.. I don't think I'm ready to do .. any work. I'm feeling mega lazy -- or maybe I'm butting up against a wall of limiting beliefs that look like the internal monologue of "I'm just chilling out right now".
It feels uncomfortable, frankly, to be in this space. I'm antsy. I did a big thing (FIRE) and now, without even catching my breath, I'm onto planning the next and blowing it up way out of proportion.
But I'm trying to avoid this. The thing I want is actually skills based. I just need to get my headspace switched to "practice" instead of "performance".
But damn, it sucks.
\\
Maybe the right way to think about this is more like sport periodization. I'm in my deload week and I need to STFU and actually accept that I'm not supposed to work hard right now. If I did, I'd hinder my progress.
It just feels kinda wrong, morally, in the "I have one life" sense of things, to not push to/beyond 100% as much as possible.
\\
For 2025, I'm going to orient myself to skill development. I have been muddling over models after good chats with friends and will post something on that soon.
Solutions are good, but instead of "achieve Y" I want to "develop X".
So, for now and the rest of 2024, I'm letting go of that need to "be doing life hard". 2024 is a year for solutions, why not.
\\
I hope this dichotomy represents a useful heuristic for self reflection in others, however unpleasant it is to overlay onto my life these days.
My little sauna space ship:
Re: My side of the mountain
The sauna looks great!
Your musings around productivity remind of this tweet I saw recently
With your philosophy background, have you given any thought to consequentialist cluelessness and how that relates to productivity? I find the idea strangely comforting sometimes.
Like, maybe the most impactful thing I'll ever do is write a random blog post that happens to brighten someone’s mood. Instead of having a bad day, that reader has a good one, and then they end up curing cancer when they otherwise would not have, and millions of lives are saved. And the rest of the stuff I do, and the skills I learn, are just for my own enjoyment and to give my family a good life.
Obviously the curing cancer thing is a silly and extreme example, and it can cut the other way, where I butterfly effect my way into causing some huge catastrophe. This podcast I with a moral philosopher dives in to some of those issues. I found it interesting. If I recall, she doesn't worry about the whole "you took a left instead of a right on your way to work and that caused a nuclear explosion a year later" because good effects and bad effects are equally likely and cancel out, or something?
Anyway, something in the general direction of that tweet above makes me feel okay about not always needing to be productive in a way that is legible to an outside observer.
Your musings around productivity remind of this tweet I saw recently
With your philosophy background, have you given any thought to consequentialist cluelessness and how that relates to productivity? I find the idea strangely comforting sometimes.
Like, maybe the most impactful thing I'll ever do is write a random blog post that happens to brighten someone’s mood. Instead of having a bad day, that reader has a good one, and then they end up curing cancer when they otherwise would not have, and millions of lives are saved. And the rest of the stuff I do, and the skills I learn, are just for my own enjoyment and to give my family a good life.
Obviously the curing cancer thing is a silly and extreme example, and it can cut the other way, where I butterfly effect my way into causing some huge catastrophe. This podcast I with a moral philosopher dives in to some of those issues. I found it interesting. If I recall, she doesn't worry about the whole "you took a left instead of a right on your way to work and that caused a nuclear explosion a year later" because good effects and bad effects are equally likely and cancel out, or something?
Anyway, something in the general direction of that tweet above makes me feel okay about not always needing to be productive in a way that is legible to an outside observer.
Re: My side of the mountain
Great reminder @Smashter.
Perhaps foolishly, I tend to compartmentalize theoretical vs practical philosophy.
Relating to consequentialist cluelessness, I don't even believe in free will*! But I put that in the theory bucket because it doesn't normally overlap with my lived experience.
So your point is well taken. Perhaps I can push that theoretical belief into more of the practical bucket through consequentialist cluelessness: even if I really did have free will, I still have no clue how my actions will impact the world, so even more reason to chill out.
Nevertheless, it's kinda hard for me to imagine living a life that's not min/maxing most stuff by default. Maybe a bit more "surfer, brah" meets "cosmic chaos" attitude would do me kindly, alongside a healthy dose of "get over yourself and your big lofty plans" in there too.
Appreciate the comment, I've been chewing on it.
*This rabbit hole is called "hard determinism" and in my book the feeling of free will is best described as an epiphenomenon. IMO, neurobiology as a field represents this philosophy in practice/empirically.
Perhaps foolishly, I tend to compartmentalize theoretical vs practical philosophy.
Relating to consequentialist cluelessness, I don't even believe in free will*! But I put that in the theory bucket because it doesn't normally overlap with my lived experience.
So your point is well taken. Perhaps I can push that theoretical belief into more of the practical bucket through consequentialist cluelessness: even if I really did have free will, I still have no clue how my actions will impact the world, so even more reason to chill out.
Nevertheless, it's kinda hard for me to imagine living a life that's not min/maxing most stuff by default. Maybe a bit more "surfer, brah" meets "cosmic chaos" attitude would do me kindly, alongside a healthy dose of "get over yourself and your big lofty plans" in there too.
Appreciate the comment, I've been chewing on it.
*This rabbit hole is called "hard determinism" and in my book the feeling of free will is best described as an epiphenomenon. IMO, neurobiology as a field represents this philosophy in practice/empirically.
Re: My side of the mountain
Focus Strategies
One skill my business partner and I developed early on in our first project (taking over a failing VC backed start up) is prioritization and sequencing.
We kept it stupid simple: white board, write down all the ideas, order A/B/C by impact, cut all Cs, do the fastest A's, re-evaluate the B's next week.
^^ This is a micro-strategy, e.g. what to do after I've chosen what to focus on.
But how to choose what to focus on and with how much intensity is its own challenge.
Life is too short. So many interesting things to learn, try, experiment with, and develop.
So, how do I choose, and how do I allocate resources to those choices in a way that will help me best meet my goals (skill development).
Here's what I'm thinking for 2025:
Two Focus System
"A" focus:
-- novel
-- 80% of all hard work
-- requires learning about the architecture of learning the skill itself (e.g. metalearning)
-- potentially fast-track-able with expert advice/coaching
-- you're gonna suck at it for a long time (e.g. learning your first stringed instrument or your first latinic language)
-- feels mostly hard
"B" focus:
-- established
-- 20% of hard work
-- learning architecture established
-- coaching helpful but has lower ROI
-- already competent, so this "feels good" to do
-- feels mostly fun
Oscillate between these two poles, expecting almost similar output (if this were cross-category quantifiable) with asymetric input.
"Take time off" from the 'A' focus to reinvigorate creativity and relax in competence with 'B'.
Everything else outside these two focuses has the character of looking solutions-oriented*.
The point with this system is to really just stay focused while building in periodized breaks (deload weeks) that satisfy my competence sweet-tooth to maximize total longevity/hours of practice. I think we all need to have dedicated time for doing things we're good at; everyone needs wins in life on a regular basis. So figuring out how to build these into a really challenging focus on almost completely novel actions is key for long term adherence.
Seth Godin's book "The Dip" does a great job of describing the curve of skill development/learning re "A" focus items; would suggest, it's wonderfully short.
So the above is where I'm aiming for 2025.
I think my 2025 "A" focus has a longer time horizon than 12 months but I'm starting there and, having proven to myself that I really put in the hours by putting in the hours, I'll then re-evaluate how the process itself feels at years end.
\\
2025 Skill Development Plan:
A: Daily fiction writing and editing
-- time based daily action
-- learning about fiction writing, plot, structure, form, intrigue, hook, atmosphere, language/prose
-- editor networking
-- mini-intensives with focuses on: prose rhythm, poetry, "shortest-story" writing, hook, atmosphere, human emotion, scene/setting
B: Fictional video projects inspired by music/sounds I've created
-- vibe on guitar
-- record more sounds
-- shoot a lot of footage
-- edit around feeling/atmosphere instead of plot/story
-- meet/travel with friends for subjects/actors
I'm excited.
I'm also relieved to switch my focus away from "write a publish a book in 2025" to developing my craft. My own ego has gotten the better of me re my dreams/aspirations here and letting that go feels great.
As I put it to a friend, it's time to discover unknown worlds through writing. Feels right.
* My favorite "solutions" question to ask myself is "what would this look like if it were easy?" (credit Tim Ferriss). 2023 example: we hired a friend of my DW for accounting help and it was quick and simple. I then asked myself "if I wanted to be 99.9% out of my business, what would it look like if it were easy to do?" and my quick answer was "I already know and trust the hiree, we pay them well above average rates to make enthusiastic participation a no-brainer, we screenrecord everything we do for a week with audio explanations to use as a SOP for new hires". I told my b-partner about these traits and at first he said "we don't know anyone who could do this" but three weeks later it was "maybe we do know someone who can do this, what about XYZ person?". They now run the highest level operations role we have internally and they're loving it.
One skill my business partner and I developed early on in our first project (taking over a failing VC backed start up) is prioritization and sequencing.
We kept it stupid simple: white board, write down all the ideas, order A/B/C by impact, cut all Cs, do the fastest A's, re-evaluate the B's next week.
^^ This is a micro-strategy, e.g. what to do after I've chosen what to focus on.
But how to choose what to focus on and with how much intensity is its own challenge.
Life is too short. So many interesting things to learn, try, experiment with, and develop.
So, how do I choose, and how do I allocate resources to those choices in a way that will help me best meet my goals (skill development).
Here's what I'm thinking for 2025:
Two Focus System
"A" focus:
-- novel
-- 80% of all hard work
-- requires learning about the architecture of learning the skill itself (e.g. metalearning)
-- potentially fast-track-able with expert advice/coaching
-- you're gonna suck at it for a long time (e.g. learning your first stringed instrument or your first latinic language)
-- feels mostly hard
"B" focus:
-- established
-- 20% of hard work
-- learning architecture established
-- coaching helpful but has lower ROI
-- already competent, so this "feels good" to do
-- feels mostly fun
Oscillate between these two poles, expecting almost similar output (if this were cross-category quantifiable) with asymetric input.
"Take time off" from the 'A' focus to reinvigorate creativity and relax in competence with 'B'.
Everything else outside these two focuses has the character of looking solutions-oriented*.
The point with this system is to really just stay focused while building in periodized breaks (deload weeks) that satisfy my competence sweet-tooth to maximize total longevity/hours of practice. I think we all need to have dedicated time for doing things we're good at; everyone needs wins in life on a regular basis. So figuring out how to build these into a really challenging focus on almost completely novel actions is key for long term adherence.
Seth Godin's book "The Dip" does a great job of describing the curve of skill development/learning re "A" focus items; would suggest, it's wonderfully short.
So the above is where I'm aiming for 2025.
I think my 2025 "A" focus has a longer time horizon than 12 months but I'm starting there and, having proven to myself that I really put in the hours by putting in the hours, I'll then re-evaluate how the process itself feels at years end.
\\
2025 Skill Development Plan:
A: Daily fiction writing and editing
-- time based daily action
-- learning about fiction writing, plot, structure, form, intrigue, hook, atmosphere, language/prose
-- editor networking
-- mini-intensives with focuses on: prose rhythm, poetry, "shortest-story" writing, hook, atmosphere, human emotion, scene/setting
B: Fictional video projects inspired by music/sounds I've created
-- vibe on guitar
-- record more sounds
-- shoot a lot of footage
-- edit around feeling/atmosphere instead of plot/story
-- meet/travel with friends for subjects/actors
I'm excited.
I'm also relieved to switch my focus away from "write a publish a book in 2025" to developing my craft. My own ego has gotten the better of me re my dreams/aspirations here and letting that go feels great.
As I put it to a friend, it's time to discover unknown worlds through writing. Feels right.
* My favorite "solutions" question to ask myself is "what would this look like if it were easy?" (credit Tim Ferriss). 2023 example: we hired a friend of my DW for accounting help and it was quick and simple. I then asked myself "if I wanted to be 99.9% out of my business, what would it look like if it were easy to do?" and my quick answer was "I already know and trust the hiree, we pay them well above average rates to make enthusiastic participation a no-brainer, we screenrecord everything we do for a week with audio explanations to use as a SOP for new hires". I told my b-partner about these traits and at first he said "we don't know anyone who could do this" but three weeks later it was "maybe we do know someone who can do this, what about XYZ person?". They now run the highest level operations role we have internally and they're loving it.