Zeihan predicts end of growth everywhere except North America

[zbigi]

For me, the most interesting of his recent videos was his prediction that Poland will dominate its major neighbors (Russia and Germany), possibly even taking some territory from Russia. It seems so unlikely that if it happens, he's a geopolitics uber-genius. I'm not betting on it though.

[Ego]

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How would a European hedge this ending of fossil fuel with no good alternatives on the immediate horizon and the catastrophes resulting from demographic decline that Zeihan predicts?

[zbigi]

How would a European hedge this ending of fossil fuel with no good alternatives on the immediate horizon and the catastrophes resulting from demographic decline that Zeihan predicts?

I don't see a way other that slowly backing out of the anti-fossil fuel policies, with plenty of political turmoil along the way. I would be surprised if any of EU's goals were reached, even if they were halved in ambition. They're assuming a widespread implementation of technologies that are currently at prototype stage at best (i.e. hydrogen), it's easy to imagine how smooth it will go in practice. All the while there's only 26 years left till the declared goal of full carbon neutrality for entire EU.

However, if the demographic decline prediction will pan out, it should make it easier to reach carbon neutrality, as there will be in general less human activity of any kind (so, less demand for energy). On the other hand, coal is cheapest and most carbon intensive source of energy, so if people get poorer and the governments go into large deficits, who knows if coal will not come back to be widely adopted, thus increasing carbon footprint.

[loutfard]

On the other hand, coal is cheapest and most carbon intensive source of energy, so if people get poorer and the governments go into large deficits, who knows if coal will not come back to be widely adopted, thus increasing carbon footprint.

In the short term, at least in northwestern Europe, coal is more expensive than natural gas. That is without taking any other factors into account, like carbon footprint externalities or demand surge adjustment. Both of those are in favour of natural gas.

In the medium term, with the upcoming surge in lng terminal capacity, and the natural gas contracts going with it, many crystal balls are forecasting any coal/natural gas delta to be small or in favour of natural gas until 2026-2028 at least.

In the long term, there's reason to be optimistic the energy problems can be solved in ways ever more resilient, cheap, ecologically sound and less beholden to the mad dictator of the day:
- Renewables and biofuels are catching ever more energy market share. Marginal cost is ever closer to zero.
- EU wide electric interconnects are making the intermittency of some renewables ever less of a problem.
- Nuclear fusion seems to be coming ever closer to reality.
- Green fuels are becoming ever cheaper. Many think of hydrogen, but somewhat more complex products like ammonia or green methane.
- Some are counting on cheaper/safer/smaller/less wasteful nuclear fission reactors.

[zbigi]

In the short term, at least in northwestern Europe, coal is more expensive than natural gas. That is without taking any other factors into account, like carbon footprint externalities or demand surge adjustment. Both of those are in favour of natural gas.

I'm not sure what you mean by "taking into account carbon footprint externalities" (by defintion, externalities are not taken into account by whoever is producing them?), but, as I understood the Reuters article, electricity prouction from gas is only cheaper because it is taxed (carbon tax) less. The article is talking about the cost of coal-powered generation, and I presume this includes the mandatory carbon tax (which can be lowered if times get rough).

As for long term perspectives, I agree that one or several of promising solutions you listed will probably pan out - but mass deployment will cost trillions of euros. Ageing EU will not neccessarily have that kind of money to throw after ecological long-term thinking- it will rather go to pensions and maintaining the standard of living.