How is the FIRE movement doing?

[daylen]

The contracts may only last a finite time or number of interactions. There could also be a gradient of privacy that can be adjusted. Perhaps you only share actions or activities without disclosing identity or location. Really, anything is possible due to turing completeness of the contracts just like how derivatives can be infinitely complex. Centralized currencies would likely continue existing to off-set volatility and may remain dominate.

The grounding problem of symbols into actions is being solved by robotics on one hand and has been solved by humans already with in-person teaching. With advancements in virtualized world models, these teachings can become as realistic as school and live on digital infrastructure to be copied indefinitely.

Also, the neo-tribes could scale smoothly from individual influencers to entirely collective influencing.

[daylen]

The orange paradigm is all about maximum return regardless of the externalities. What happens if the externalities become sufficiently vivid in a virtualized form so as to incentivize not just maximizing return. Perhaps using a portion of the portfolio to help boost local network effects that end up influencing your web of goals more directly becomes feasible?

[Jin+Guice]

I am very much enjoying this discussion.

I question whether FIRE grew big enough that a change in the youngest generation has influenced our attraction rate. As @jacob noted, we should still be able to attract older cohort members. I am enjoying the discussion of how level-orange-through-yellow influences all those hawt young influencers and their new money and possibilities.

While I think expansion of FIRE would require better marketing and expansion of ERE would require better and/ or different marketing, I'm not sure we've maxed out converting even people who are directly interested in the financial independence of yesterdecade.

One of the clever parts about FIRE (before it turned into fatFIRE) was acknowledging both that we need stuff but also that we don't need that much stuff

Coming from my shiny-relatively-new-post-WL5 burst of exuberance, the genius of ERE is that it acknowledged that we still need stuff, but not that much stuff and so you are now free of your stuff and the master of your own ship. Sail it where you will*!


*Obviously to my new ERE city in New Orleans where we will live the dream of pirate captains of our own destinies.

[Western Red Cedar]

Another data point from someone who "quit" the FIRE movement popped into my feed yesterday:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=T6dGG3h9Rx8

Too long/didn't watch: Aggressively pursued fired from 18-24 with real estate, reached their FIRE number but neglected social relationships along the way and didn't have plans for what to do with the excess time/freedom. Adopted a scarcity mindset along the way. Played a bunch of video games and felt bored and purposeless after hitting FIRE.

[jacob]

Too long/didn't watch: Aggressively pursued fired from 18-24 with real estate, reached their FIRE number but neglected social relationships along the way and didn't have plans for what to do with the excess time/freedom. Adopted a scarcity mindset along the way. Played a bunch of video games and felt bored and purposeless after hitting FIRE.

The funny thing is that in the early part of the movement's years (before the MOP era), it was essentially this argument in reverse that made people join the movement: "Aggressively pursued a career they were passionate about. Discovering that they loved their job more than the job loved them back. Started doing retail therapy to compensate for a now meaningless job. Felt trapped by "earning and buying". Burned out along the way. Then discovered that reducing spending on things that didn't matter could be invested to eventually buy their freedom out of the trap."

There's an old "what do you do for a living"-thread from the early years (2010) and it's incredibly diverse compared to the current situation of not being able to swing a stick lest you hit someone in software. One of the interesting parts of that thread is that several people are also intra-diverse in that they've worked a lot of different jobs over their life. This shows the inability to "just stick with one thing" (like the same job for 30 years) and the ability to find something else to do. Freedom-to was not discussed much back then (see https://earlyretirementextreme.com/a-me ... ement.html ) but perhaps it was so obvious to people---easily being able to find something to do---that it was just taken for granted.

[guitarplayer]

I read that thread but just realised I never contributed there. Will make a point to do so.

[7Wannabe5]

How about lifestyles as tokens?(*) ...
(*) Or perhaps actions or activities as tokens that fit together into lifestyles.

Yes, this is kind of along the lines of what I was thinking, but it is still maybe a bit too in alignment with "gold star" functioning? Seems like it would be akin to the badge system at Wheaton Labs/permies, but more virtualized?

Staying alive still depends on somebody moving stuff around. While a great many are abstracted from this one or two levels out, the tokens and symbols remain connected to stuff. (This is probably why those who have exclusively dedicated their life to focusing on imaginary things have lived a life of absolute poverty out of necessity.) If this is not clear, try making your own stuff from scratch instead of buying it. It's quite challenging relative to what humans are regularly asked to do at the jobs to make even simple things, like a table. A table made out of wood, that is, not a pixelated image symbolically attached to an NFT.

Those who exclusively dedicate their life to focusing on imaginary (non-tangible) things may live in poverty, BUT so do those who focus exclusively on non-abstracted small-scale production of the most needful (tangible) commodities. In the section of "ERE" in which you discuss how there is no difference between "needs" and "wants", you note that most basic level of choices for Shelter would be 1) Sleeping under open air. You also note that there would be similar lists for "...eating, clothing, transportation, health, time, tools, toys, activities, status, etc., each ranging from essentially zero cost to more than one can imagine." Since there are options that are "essentially zero cost" for each possible category then it's clear that underlying the Cash Flow Diagram ($), there exists a Survival Flow Diagram (Kcals, H2O, etc.) Therefore, is also clear that "a table made out of wood" and "a pixelated image symbolically attached to an NFT" are both simply Lifestyle Tokens, neither more needful than the other. For example, I currently own zero tables (okay, there are built-in counters in my tiny garret kitchen), but likely more than 100 digital products, including a digital copy of "ERE" Way back in the early 90s, Joe Dominguez (YMOYL) and Amy Dacyzyn (Tightwad Gazette) highly recommended investing in the solidly real Intersubjective stuff of Treasury Bonds and solidly real Objective stuff of Antique Furniture rather than shoddy, risky, less substantial alternatives. How did that go?

The average person believing that "community" is an automagic source of stuff or that their "youtube subscription base" is better than "money in the bank" (yes, these people exist) are likely in for a rude awakening.

Unless Intersubjective belief in "money in the bank" actually sinks lower than Intersubjective belief in "community" and/or "youtube subscription base." I'm not saying that this is a near-time likely alternative universe for many of us, but the general principle holds in relationship to any/all Lifestyle Tokens beyond the Survival Flow Diagram. The other day I saw a scruffy old bum standing by the expressway ramp holding a sign that read, "Too Old for Prostitution. Need Help." and if I had any money on me that wasn't electronic, I would have given some to him just for the laugh. I'm actually engaged in a sort of Performance Art/Flea Market/Squad "Wealth" project with my 3 sisters entitled "The Wilder Side: Found Books and Lost Arts" and my youngest sister wrote and self-published a graphic novel/zine as part of her contribution to the project. She did a reading for a mostly younger audience at an open mic night and was going to give away some copies for free, but the kids in the audience insisted that she create a Venmo QR code so that they could pay her for her "art." Little markets popping up everywhere, that's the actually real economy associated with squad wealth and The Symbol Flow Diagram. And, it's the opposite of the case that my youngest sister's success at making the first very small cash flow deposit to our project has the rest of us thinking that we can do less, because she is doing more. Everybody wants to bring something nutritious, interesting, and delicious to the potluck.

[daylen]

Perhaps badge systems are prone to corruption in a world more focused on complicated solutions. This is figuratively and literally represented by tall buildings and gated communities that control complicated stacks in an increasingly virtual way. Each complicated stack to solve a particular problem requires very different automation techniques and specialized robots. As these solutions scale their human interfacing becomes increasingly unwieldy. Gold stars for climbing.

Up until relatively recently we have been very limited by how many people and machines we can concentrate into a city to solve a growing hydra of problems from technical debt. Virtualization is decreasing the attractiveness of cities as network effects have largely moved onto the internet. Solutions are still largely in the form of complicated products and services we mostly do not need. Though there are some trends that could incentivize more complex solutions.

Instead of having a million different robots doing a million different actions to create millions of similar things you could have millions of generalized humanoid robots helping to serve and produce in millions of ways. Being humanoid the robots are compatible with all legacy technology so can adapt to different situations and communities. If the local robot breaks down perhaps the robot in the town nearby comes to repair and maybe attempts to teach the residents how to repair their robot in the future.

This combines well with ERE and the maker community. Each community, street, town, camp, etc. could have a fabrication laboratory that can make just about anything. The local robot could help design projects, operate machines, teach, and coordinate token exchange of blueprints with other communities. No need to scale up solutions if everyone can basically design their own with help wherever they're at. Robots may even be able to fill in for various social roles like eldercare and childcare.

Promising company with this vision: https://www.figure.ai/
Fab Labs: https://www.fablabs.io/

[7Wannabe5]

@daylen:

Owning a Boy Friday AI humanoid robot would, for instance, almost certainly be better in many ways than attempting to get grouchy old men to help me with my permaculture projects. However, IME, access to a maker space and a few retired human engineers currently requires much lower currenxy on The Cash Flow Diagram.

[daylen]

That would be ideal but local demographics may not always be favorable. Retired engineers do not distribute evenly. Plus the boomers are getting old. Most certainly these robots will start out being available to rent by a select few. Gradually used robots could be recycled and shared into lower income areas over decades.

[daylen]

There is an interesting tension between a skilled labor shortage and a brain drain on complicated projects in the wealthier parts of the world. If humanoid robots are successful, then they may eventually render themselves less relevant. Though demographic shifts are probably a forever problem unless we decide to centrally regulate births which sounds totalitarian. Maybe robots can help fill in where needed and do their own thing in space because why the hell not?

[7Wannabe5]

Retired engineers do not distribute evenly. Plus the boomers are getting old.

True, even though I can't throw a rock without hitting one in my neck of the woods. I figure I only have about 3 more years max to start another permaculture project and hope to see the trees approach maturity and/or enter into a marriage of convenience and hope to collect on his social security. I wonder how much an AI-guided solar-powered wheelchair will cost in 2050?

Though demographic shifts are probably a forever problem unless we decide to centrally regulate births which sounds totalitarian. Maybe robots can help fill in where needed and do their own thing in space because why the hell not?

It is very interesting how the future can simultaneously be seen as a river approaching 10 billion peak with global population, but also human populations collapsing in localities like Japan. My take would be that the sort of labor shortages, generational divides and emotional tone associated with cultural population collapse are more relevant to the short-term future of the FIRE movement. Say what you like about the Boomers, when the median Boomer was around age 19, American culture was a good deal more infused with youthful energy.

[daylen]

Say what you like about the Boomers, when the median Boomer was around age 19, American culture was a good deal more infused with youthful energy.

Metaverse dark netting? Hundreds of millions of active gamers these days in fortnight alone.

[7Wannabe5]

@daylen:

True. Maybe the primary difference is that it's not occuring in meat-space due to declining population density of the young. In the late 70s nearly every teenager in the U.S. had a squad of peers living right on his block. However, I would also note that it is not the case that every individual exhibiting child-like(or ish) energy in the metaverse is all that young. One of my Boomer partners (ESTJ ergo Achiever gaming type) recently sold his tablet in attempt to break his PUBG addiction.

[Western Red Cedar]

I figure I only have about 3 more years max to start another permaculture project and hope to see the trees approach maturity

As they say, a society grows great when old men (and women) plant trees whose shade (and fruit) they may never see. Don't let age hold you back

[xmj]

I've read through all pages in this thread earlier today and find it super entertaining.

As to the initial question, I think the FIRE "movement" as such is fine, and some of what you see is covered by the cohort effect in that those who got an early start (e.g. around when MMM published his Shockingly Simple Math article) have probably enjoyed a dozen years of income and a 3.5x'ing of their initial $VTI asset base (along with dividend reinvestment). No big surprise that the resulting surplus might tempt one into taking chances on a new life style not much constrained by savings needs -- nor any interest in further talking about it. There's only so much you can rehash to sustain affiliate-based blog revenue.

[AnalyticalEngine]

Here's an interesting interview with JL Collins about his recent book: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=AfG_4eLMyxM

He mentions that The Simple Path to Wealth sold over 750k copies, peaking over covid, then coming back down to normal afterward.

One thing I noticed about the interview, and this has been my experience in real life too, is that the FIRE community has gotten a little more insular, perhaps. FIRE people only really produce content and talk to other FIRE people. I think it's maybe made the movement more disconnected from non-FIRE people than when it started, and that's having a negative influence on the perception outside of the movement.

[delay]

There's an old "what do you do for a living"-thread from the early years (2010) and it's incredibly diverse compared to the current situation of not being able to swing a stick lest you hit someone in software.

What if that is not ERE specific, but a general trend? When I was in college I was one of the few who liked to program. Other people asked me to do their programming assignments.

Some of those people got to work in their chosen field for a while, like a chemical engineer working at a chemical plant. Yet over time the work they trained for was outsourced to other countries. Many have moved to jobs in software. They still do not understand software. Their jobs seem to consist of managing and selling to or buying from other graduates. They earn good salaries.

I wonder what this means. The entire West seems to be specializing in something that is not software but related to it. Perhaps managing software?