There's an interesting article up on Our Finite World titled Running short of tailwinds for the economy. It points out that what made the economy tick in the past is now getting short in supply. An interesting point is that high interest rates are good for the US:
the higher interest rates make the US a more attractive country for other countries to invest in.
Our Finite World is written by Gail Tverberg, who describes herself as:
My name is Gail Tverberg. I am an actuary interested in finite world issues - oil depletion, natural gas depletion, water shortages, and climate change. Oil limits look very different from what most expect, with high prices leading to recession, and low prices leading to financial problems for oil producers and for oil exporting countries. We are really dealing with a physics problem that affects many parts of the economy at once, including wages and the financial system. I try to look at the overall problem.
The article matches how I think about the economy. But I'm endlessly surprised by the new cars, houses, kitchens and holidays I see people buy. So many contradictions.
I think the Rational Optimists would argue that no matter what is going on with the tail-winds, the engine of Growth is Innovation. However, although Innovation is quite hard to pin down and define or re-produce in a business-laboratory setting, it does seem to require a certain level of affluence along with human level brain function. For instance, Marconi had the wealth and leisure to observe the silkworms on his grandfather's farm estate, the educational connections to communicate about the cutting edge science of his era, and the ability to afford legal help towards obtaining patent. Cheap fossil fuels provided many more humans with the energy equivalent of the solar gain of Marconi's grandfather's estate towards the general ability to survive while failing forward.