Investments Trade Log

Ask your investment, budget, and other money related questions here
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Seppia
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Location: Italy

Re: Investments Trade Log

Post by Seppia »

The latter - it's just speculation on my side, but while Apple is using the cover of "privacy", why would anybody who controls the infrastructure let FB access all the valuable info for free?

Google may drop a lot in terms of ad revenue in the coming months, but it's a monopoly that prints cash - I think tech is going to keep getting crushed in the short term but I have dipped my toes into GOOG.
Will probably be a bag holder in the short term

jacob
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Location: USA, Zone 5b, Koppen Dfa, Elev. 620ft, Walkscore 73
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Re: Investments Trade Log

Post by jacob »

Current damage levels (peak to now, no dividends ~ rounding error):

NASDAQ ~ -32%
S&P500 ~ -20%
DOW ~ -12%
Total Market ~ -21%

The FAANGs are doing a lot of the damage.

Facebook ~ - 73%
Apple ~ -17%
Amazon ~ -46%
Netflix ~ -58%
Google ~ -39%

Before things went south, the 5 stocks represented around 20% of the SPU and around 40% of the NDAQ! One wonders whether cap-weighed will still be a thing of the next cycle. Alternatives now exist although they have higher fees because they're harder to manage as they require more trading.

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Lemur
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Location: USA

Re: Investments Trade Log

Post by Lemur »

Sold and took losses on AMD and the rest of my positions in JPM. I sold VISA a few weeks ago as well. I can just say I was tax loss harvesting but the truth is, it took me a long time to overcome sunk cost fallacy. I feel relieved. I used the capital to purchase more shares of VGIT to move towards my set allocations. My individual stock positions left are MU and SOFI.

jacob
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Re: Investments Trade Log

Post by jacob »

Current damage levels (peak to now):

Taxable portfolio: -2.5% (stubbornly refuses to resurface)
Tax deferred portfolio: -11%
House (zillow): -5%
S&P500: -14%
BTC: -73%

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Mister Imperceptible
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Joined: Fri Nov 10, 2017 4:18 pm

Re: Investments Trade Log

Post by Mister Imperceptible »

https://www.bis.org/publ/qtrpdf/r_qt2212h.htm

https://www.bis.org/publ/qtrpdf/r_qt2212h.pdf

Get your Tuesday started off right with a report from the Bank for International Settlements of $80 trillion (and growing) in hidden off-balance sheet FX liabilities.
Bank for International Settlements wrote:FX swaps, forwards and currency swaps create forward dollar payment obligations that do not appear on balance sheets and are missing in standard debt statistics. Non-banks outside the United States owe as much as $25 trillion in such missing debt, up from $17 trillion in 2016. Non- US banks owe upwards of $35 trillion. Much of this debt is very short-term and the resulting rollover needs make for dollar funding squeezes. Policy responses to such squeezes include central bank swap lines that are set in a fog, with little information about the geographic distribution of the missing debt.

Embedded in the foreign exchange (FX) market is huge, unseen dollar borrowing. In an FX swap, for instance, a Dutch pension fund or Japanese insurer borrows dollars and lends euro or yen in the “spot leg”, and later repays the dollars and receives euro or yen in the “forward leg”. Thus, an FX swap, along with its close cousin, a currency swap, resembles a repurchase agreement, or repo, with a currency rather than a security as “collateral”. Unlike repo, the payment obligations from these instruments are recorded off-balance sheet, in a blind spot. The $80 trillion-plus in outstanding obligations to pay US dollars in FX swaps/forwards and currency swaps, mostly very short-term, exceeds the stocks of dollar Treasury bills, repo and commercial paper combined. The churn of deals approached $5 trillion per day in April 2022, two thirds of daily global FX turnover.


Ring the alarm, another sound is dying, woh-oh, hey

Slevin
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Re: Investments Trade Log

Post by Slevin »

Can you explain the risk / issue here to a layman (non financial analyst) like me? I understand that theres 80 trillion of pretend lent dollars sitting out there that will be swapped out, but didn’t this same article imply the churn of this supply was at 5 trillion per day? I.e. at current trade rates it could just be dealt with in just 16 days? Is the risk just that in a total financial blowup where everyone wants to close the positions, there is literally not enough USD in existence to clear the 80 trillion out in a short amount of time?

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Mister Imperceptible
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Re: Investments Trade Log

Post by Mister Imperceptible »

Slevin wrote:
Tue Dec 06, 2022 1:56 am
there is literally not enough USD in existence to clear the 80 trillion out in a short amount of time?
Only a problem if dollar liquidity is being withdrawn on a global basis, for example in an attempt to combat inflation:

Image

Source: https://wolfstreet.com/2022/12/01/feds- ... ate-on-qt/

Married2aSwabian
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Re: Investments Trade Log

Post by Married2aSwabian »

Mister Imperceptible wrote:
Tue Dec 06, 2022 12:18 am
https://www.bis.org/publ/qtrpdf/r_qt2212h.htm

https://www.bis.org/publ/qtrpdf/r_qt2212h.pdf

Get your Tuesday started off right with a report from the Bank for International Settlements of $80 trillion (and growing) in hidden off-balance sheet FX liabilities.
So, they’re essentially shorting USD? Borrowing dollars with floating exchange rate and now getting squeezed with big fed funds rate increases?

Married2aSwabian
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Joined: Thu Jan 07, 2021 7:45 pm

Re: Investments Trade Log

Post by Married2aSwabian »

DW and I went on an amazing two month camping, hiking, backpacking tour of the American west this summer. And while ID, OR, CA, UT and CO were gorgeous, we also saw evidence everywhere of the terrible severe drought.

I feel this is going to be a very big deal very soon and obviously a worldwide problem.

It seems like desalination tech could be an answer, but traditional desalination takes a huge amount of energy. An Israeli company, IDE, is apparently a leader here, but privately held. For now, we’ve bought some AWK shares, as a low tech start.

Very interested in any ideas / solutions here.

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Chris
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Re: Investments Trade Log

Post by Chris »

Married2aSwabian wrote:
Wed Dec 07, 2022 8:30 am
It seems like desalination tech could be an answer, but traditional desalination takes a huge amount of energy.
...
Very interested in any ideas / solutions here.
ERII is an interesting play: their technology reduces the energy intensity of desalinization, and requires almost no maintenance. But the stock is expensive at current levels.

ertyu
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Joined: Sun Nov 13, 2016 2:31 am

Re: Investments Trade Log

Post by ertyu »

Married2aSwabian wrote:
Wed Dec 07, 2022 8:16 am
So, they’re essentially shorting USD? Borrowing dollars with floating exchange rate and now getting squeezed with big fed funds rate increases?
The part I care about is, are we going to see another leg up towards dollar strength or is this the bottom of this stage of the trend. In other words, is this old news and the squeeze already happened?

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Mister Imperceptible
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Re: Investments Trade Log

Post by Mister Imperceptible »

ertyu wrote:
Wed Dec 07, 2022 10:48 pm
The part I care about is, are we going to see another leg up towards dollar strength or is this the bottom of this stage of the trend. In other words, is this old news and the squeeze already happened?
Perhaps step back and instead ask:

What are the chances of my timing such a trend? Am I tactically positioned for a leg up or down, or are my allocations purely strategic?

Perhaps after stepping back, step back again, and ask:

If so much depends on dollar liquidity, what does that mean? And assuming absolute ignorance (I do not know when the controllers of liquidity will turn off or on the spigot), how am I to position myself with information that is delayed and imperfect?

Married2aSwabian
Posts: 262
Joined: Thu Jan 07, 2021 7:45 pm

Re: Investments Trade Log

Post by Married2aSwabian »

Pretty quiet around here - No fun looking at the numbers this year.
We are fortunate to have had 3+ years living expenses in cash since 2021. That $ is now in I-bonds and short term tBills.
However, we are long VTI, BND, BNDX plus other bond funds thru Vanguard - those are down nearly 20% in aggregate YTD.
Smaller investments <$10k:
ACI
AWK
T
Short on:
CACC
NFLX

DW is long VDC which has held up well this year, as well as IBM.

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Seppia
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Location: Italy

Re: Investments Trade Log

Post by Seppia »

I am delighted by the performance of Tesla and ARKK.
Plus as written here multiple times, I’ve been overweight energy and other “real” stuff for a couple years, so it’s been a great 2022 (especially in relative performance) for me

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Lemur
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Re: Investments Trade Log

Post by Lemur »

BBBY up 68.60%. Also up ~19% premarket.

I thought the mania was over.

Wish I could poke whatever beehive this is to do SoFI. I only need 241% to breakeven lol.

giskard
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Joined: Sat Apr 30, 2016 12:07 pm

Re: Investments Trade Log

Post by giskard »

I bought some more Novo Nordisk and Eli Lily today. The diabeties / obesity drug treatment trend thing is just getting started and I think these two are best positioned. Valuation is high but I think earnings will catch up if everyone starts treating weightloss with semaglutide and whatever competitor product lily is going to make.

Also, if people stop using they seem to gain weight back... this trend is going to change the world.

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