Damn it Feels Good to be a Gangsta

[jacob]

@J+G

In case you missed it, here's another famous @Fish diagram along the same lines.
viewtopic.php?p=197249#p197249

[Jin+Guice]

Ah thanks for posting this @jacob. So OG ERE was in the 95th+ savings rate ("frugality" on the chart) percentile and the 50th+ income percentile.

I'm searching for heuristics other than SWR to determine robustness of the semi-ERE system. Where I'm going is that ERE is likely to get you in the 80-90% percentile in terms of savings rate and expenditures, plus put you above the median in terms of income and years of expenditures saved.

Spending even just a few years in this space seems likely to be a pretty robust strategy that could invoke the conditions necessary for a downshift in w*rk, as long as you don't completely alter the behavior that go you there.

[jacob]

Ah thanks for posting this @jacob. So OG ERE was in the 95th+ savings rate ("frugality" on the chart) percentile and the 50th+ income percentile.

"Frugality" is not the savings rate. It's the spending percentile. 95% frugality percentile means spending less than 95% of all other households.

[Jin+Guice]

Thanks for the correction.

Mixing up which stat I'm talking about is what I get for trying to do a quick response without thinking.

If I replace "savings rate" with "spending percentile" in my above post... where all I'm doing is saying my opinion... the point I'm trying to throw my opinion behind still remains valid... in my opinion.

I suspect a 70%+ savings rate is also going to be in at least the 90th percentile (if not much higher) of savings rates, but I don't have the data at my finger tips.

[Fish]

I suspect a 70%+ savings rate is also going to be in at least the 90th percentile (if not much higher) of savings rates, but I don't have the data at my finger tips.

[2Birds1Stone]

I am amazed that ~50% of $150k+ income households save ~50% of their incomes.

[basuragomi]

In Canada, over half of all households save less than 0% of their incomes (as of 2022):



Hard agree on Jin+Guice's main point. For all its faults, Western society makes it really hard to starve to death in the cold if you're able-bodied, trained to navigate bureaucracy, able to keep three months of savings handy, and keep your addictions below the 90th percentile. Someone posting on a BBS in 2022 meets almost all those criteria.

[Western Red Cedar]

I am amazed that ~50% of $150k+ income households save ~50% of their incomes.

If you check out the original thread with that chart there is some discussion with concerns about the validity of that data. I personally wouldn't put a huge amount of faith in self-reported survey data. I know from my own experience that I underestimate my own household spending unless I'm carefully tracking it, and I'm pretty keyed into our household finances.

[Jin+Guice]

Thanks again @Fish for the data and very useful chart. I am also skeptical of the high savings rates reported in the table. I will note that above 50% savings rate, the table starts to converge to what I would expect... which is where most of us are.

When I was trying to google to find these numbers, as well as numbers on individual net worth, I found a bunch of different stats on this from different sources (like unreliable ones on blogs or company's websites though). I imagine a major source of discrepancy is 1) if debt is included or not; 2) how home equity is treated and 3) how mortgage debt is treated. Those are just my guesses.

To put one number on what I was talking about... note that a ~50% savings rate puts you in the ~80th percentile of savings rate among all U.S. households.

So even if you're not EREing that hard you're still spending less than 90% of other households, saving more than 80% of other households, earning slightly more than the median of all households and have 10+ years of expenditures saved, like, it's going to take a major world shake up to really fuck you.

Hard agree on Jin+Guice's main point. For all its faults, Western society makes it really hard to starve to death in the cold if you're able-bodied, trained to navigate bureaucracy, able to keep three months of savings handy, and keep your addictions below the 90th percentile. Someone posting on a BBS in 2022 meets almost all those criteria.

Thanks. What I'm actually gunning at is this holds all the way up. If you've built a life like the one I describe above I think you can probably stay at your current level of affluence and expenditures and greatly reduce w*rk and change jobs into something more enjoyable. This also allows one to build even more skills and start to reap the rewards of serendipity from being places most people are not during the w*rkday.

[AxelHeyst]

I'm searching for heuristics other than SWR to determine robustness of the semi-ERE system. Where I'm going is that ERE is likely to get you in the 80-90% percentile in terms of savings rate and expenditures, plus put you above the median in terms of income and years of expenditures saved.

Spending even just a few years in this space seems likely to be a pretty robust strategy that could invoke the conditions necessary for a downshift in w*rk, as long as you don't completely alter the behavior that go you there.

If we can agree that one way to frame ERE generally is that it's a praxis to reduce the amount of time spent doing stuff you don't find meaningful so that you can spend more time doing stuff you do find meaningful, in a very robust, resilient, etc way...

And that the accumulate>FI ERE path makes obvious sense because you just get all your "don't wanna" time out of the way early and spend the rest of your time pursuing meaningful activity, and so heuristics like SWR make sense because (when understood properly) it's a measure of how likely you are to have to do stuff you don't wanna...

Then we might be able to propose some heuristics for semiERE, which lets agree means *only* that you don't do FTE until reaching SWR, you do something else.

Two heuristics jump out at me, and are where my head is at thinking about my own semiERE system:

1) The FU Stash in Years. This heuristic answers the question if all income stopped tomorrow, how long would I have until I *had* to restart income generation? How much runway/buffer/etc do I have? The FU stash might be broken into two hueristics: survivalCOL and idealCOL or ttmCOL (trailing twelve month, aka your realCOL). I'm pretty sure if things got weird I *could* live all right off of $250/month, but I'd like to be spending some money on some things I haven't figured out how to dumpster dive yet like dual-pane glazing units in the exact size I want.

2) Income generation as a percentage of realCOL.

3) The number of hours (a week, let's say) I have to spend doing things I don't find meaningful to generate however much income I'm generating.

So for example my current semiERE stats are:

FU stash: 11.3 * ttmCOL and 25 * targetCOL
Income generation: 1.5xtargetCOL
Hrs/wk doing shit I don't really want to do to earn money: uh, I don't know, like 6 maybe. This one is hard to put a number on for me right now, I'm sorting some stuff out. But if I worked let's say 20hrs a week at McDonalds in order to make my income, this number would be 20. If all I did was write weird fictionalized memoirs about my exgf's and ex-work and that brought in my income (lol), this number would be 0.

In the same way that we now say someone can be ERE even though they aren't FI yet, but we still consider FI to be a certain milestone in their journey after which they can focus totally on optimized meaningfulness in their lives without worrying about money because it's 'solved', we can say something similar for the semiERE person:

There is a significant milestone in the semiERE person's life when
1) They have a nice multi-year stash, like at least 10 years,
2) They earn at least 1*COL, or at least 1.5*COL, something
3) But most critically the number of hour a week they spend doing stuff the don't find meaningful is zero.

In words, they've got a system set up where they've got money when they need it, including for emergencies and unforeseen events, and they are focused on pursuing activities that are meaningful to them, however they define it, and it all works in such a way that is resilient, loosely-coupled, etc etc.

ETA: I think 1 and 2 should combine to result in some milestone portfolio size by X date, as in, "if I have 10x now and I make 2xCoL for the next fifteen years then my stash will probably be at a SWR that I've chosen". There's got to be something in the system so you don't have to earn that 1.x income until your deathbed at 97 or whatever.

[classical_Liberal]

But most critically the number of hour a week they spend doing stuff the don't find meaningful is zero.

BAM!

Seriously, despite all the technical talk in this forum. This is the number one, most important point. The second point being the "feeling" of stability while living this lifestyle. This leads to all the old school disagreements about FI, vs Semi-ERE, vs WR, etc. To each their own, but consider why it is your own.

While this forum as a whole is more aggressively adding an ecological/sustainability leg to the stool (a good thing, when future humanity is considered), this is something that generally progresses from the above two points (from those not coming from an ecological background). Doing what is good for a person, and security that a person can continue such a lifestyle indefinitely. Through a state of mind like this, higher aspirations become more prevalent.

[AxelHeyst]

Yes.... many years ago, I think I implicitly considered getting one's own house in order to be sort of fundamentally selfish, a distraction from the 'real work'. The fact that I had no idea of how to actually pull it off no doubt aided this thought. ERE praxis demonstrates that, at least for several of the pathways and initial conditions showcased in the journals section of this forum, it's not only doable, it's actually not that difficult. So: do it, free thyself, so you can get on with doing whatever it is you're meant to do with your little slice of existence.

[jacob]

Yes.... many years ago, I think I implicitly considered getting one's own house in order to be sort of fundamentally selfish, a distraction from the 'real work'.

Wow! The usual objections in terms of "putting one's own oxygen mask first" is usually that it's pointless. I never understood that sentiment. Grasping at straws, it may come from the [collectively-oriented] sentiment that the individual is nothing insofar it's not part of a community and so the community comes before the individual.

That idea (ideology) breaks with a community ultimately being a holon. Individuals are members of a community. The community is not the member of a person or its persons. As such the "community before individual" is fragile to collapse. It is also not robust. It only works when everybody believes it.

[AxelHeyst]

Yeah. Mind, I'm guessing at what was subconsciously going on inside my head twelve years ago. I think I just never stopped and considered what would be qualitatively different in my life of I was financially and economically independent. Remember, a big difference between young me and many others is that I believed strongly in the mission of the work I was engaged in 40-80hrs/wk. Why did I need to be free? I was already doing what I thought was the most important and appropriate use of my energy. Any surplus life energy I had just got plowed into related side projects. My activities were optimized for impact, it seemed at the time.

(Although, even as early as 2011, references to desires for FI and being able to do wierder and broader things start cropping up in my journals... So I still don't totally understand why I never connected the dots till 2020).

[Jin+Guice]

Wow! The usual objections in terms of "putting one's own oxygen mask first" is usually that it's pointless. I never understood that sentiment.

The way I look at it is you are asking people to break with the traditions and values of their (our) culture. I made every decision assuming I had to work until I was at least 70 bc that's what I was raised to believe. If I had thought about it at all and done the FIRE math at 15 I would've for sure lived my life totally differently, except that I doubt I would've been brave enough to believe myself.

The reaction to "you don't have to work 40 hours a week, 5 days a week for 40 years" is roughly the same reaction as "you don't have to date 1 person exclusively, for the rest of your life." Unless I'm catching someone in a crisis of faith, they usually just literally pretend like I said nothing. If I press the issue they will either tell me I'm dumb/ insane or be like "well you can do that, but most people can't." No amount of saying anything ever changes their minds (until a related crisis comes).



Thanks everyone else for the replies. I need some time to think about them before I reply.

[RoamingFrancis]

Hey I just listened to your interview with AH read through your entire journal. I am completely converted to your way of thinking and you are my new ERE guru

In all seriousness, though, sounds like we are temperamentally very similar. I think that with some tweaks I could seriously level up how I'm approaching ERE and your stuff is helping a lot. One thing I relate to is a need for stable housing. I kind of had an unstable housing fiasco during the pandemic and so this is something that I kind of want to figure out early. Though as I'm writing I see that fear of repeating these events might be preventing me from moving forward...

Anywho, thanks for being you. I'll probably post more thoughts in here or in my own journal as they arrive.

Edit:

I am also realizing that I am seriously underutilizing dumpster diving and repurposing waste streams. Could you talk a little more about the learning curve in this area? I have attempted this on-and-off for years with small success.

[Jean]

Ere is just the ability to divorce your career without having to find a new pimp.
Semi ere is becoming a freelance escort.

[Jin+Guice]

@RF: Glad you liked the interview. There isn' that much of a learning curve to dumpster diving... except don't get hurt? The hardest part is overcoming your own stereotypes about digging through the trash.

The hardest part is finding accessible dumpsters with stuff that isn't destroyed. I tried for years and then finally found a few and then they were everywhere. Is there a specific question you have?



Also, housing update. I bought a converted (by someone else) bus! Stable housing problem solved. Now I just need land.



Personal update: I've been semi-ERE for several years now and it's going really well. I'm hoping to start posting blog posts again about some more advanced stuff I've been tackling, but I've said most of what I can think of to say about semi-ERE. Semi-ERE remains a viable alternative for me to explore ERE concepts without fulling reaching FI.

[Jin+Guice]

ERE: A Reexamination

ERE 2 was a divisive addition to the forum. I personally welcomed it. The FI part of ERE changed my life and the lives of thousands, possibly millions. Simplicity and ease of implementation are strong points of FI. So simple yet still so revolutionary. But it is not like... that deep or interesting.

I don't know how to build a WoG of WoGs or wtf that looks like. I look forward to what other people have to say about it. I may or may not participate depending on where it goes (will def be there to participate in whatever parties y'all throw though).



What is interesting to me is continuing to extend the ideas of ERE past early retirement. Perhaps this is useful for ERE2 to identify those who have taken other paths towards ERE that were not FIRE and where one could go once one achieves freedom. Or perhaps it's interesting to other people who wish to pursue ERE without pursuing FIRE. Or perhaps it's only interesting to me.


As always, I'll add a disclaimer that I don't think there is anything wrong with traditional FIRE. It is a great and venerated path for a certain set of people, but I believe the benefits of the ideas of FIRE and especially the ideas of ERE extend way beyond putting 33x assets in an index fund (often but not always while living frugally) and stepping away from paid work.




Reassessing what ERE is and why it is important to me, I am reminded a notion I had as a teenager:

Something is very wrong.

We live in a culture that is not made for the people who inhabit it. Though we and our ancestors created it, we serve it, it does not serve us. I'm not sure where our culture went wrong. Was it industrialization, colonization, agriculture, the first human who ever modified his surroundings in an attempt to improve his conditions?

Somewhere along the line we traded the conditions humans started with for the conditions that lead to the conditions we have now. And these conditions are not working for us.

We came to worship things and safety above all else. This has lead to material comfort, where the physical threats we once faced from our environment are largely removed. But it has lead to a sterile environment that lacks the stimulation we once received from the danger we faced.

And above all it has created a culture that worships consumption above people. Convinced that ever more things and innovation will lead us to fulfillment, we chase consumption, sure that the next thing or experience will bring happiness.

What we have forgotten is the world outside of the screens and the buildings. A world that celebrates the world and the people who fill it and life and lives lived.

While it is in vogue to blame this or that technology, political or economic system or group of people, I blame everything I have ever seen and everyone I have ever known. Our culture has become pathological.


I think all of this is old news to someone on these forums. Someone pursuing ERE not only seeks to escape from a dull and meaningless career in pursuit of money and consumption, but also unyoke themselves from the dominant culture myth of our time. This is the Plato's cave that we (or at least I) seek to escape.

What ERE is to me is a systematic overview of how to reframe our culture narrative. It provides a new myth to replace the myth of consumption and technological progress. Subversively using the tools of the old myth against itself, it seeks to define a new way to live in preparation for the old ways to hit their ecological limits.


A belief that I strongly hold, that I want to re-emphasize is the pathological nature of our culture. I would like the opportunity to leave the consumer treadmill. I would like the environment not to be massively abused, with ecosystems daily destroyed and carbon emissions out of control. But these are symptoms of a pathological culture which does not serve its people. I believe leaving the cave is about so much more than exiting the consumer treadmill or making what small impact we can in the continued ecological destruction. It's about reconstructing a personal (and hopefully someday larger than personal) way of living that is in alignment with our actual beliefs, the people we share our life with and the environment around us.

This culture has stolen almost everything from us. But you go to culture war with the culture you're born into, not the cultural utopia you image.

The tools to dismantle pathological culture in the personal realm are the tools to exit Plato's cave of consumerism. I don't believe that X economic system or Y political party being replaced will make a difference until we build a culture that works for us. I do think examining how humanity has been stolen from us piece by piece and how we can steal it back will help.

And these are the ideas that interest me these days. Bc for me, semi-ERE is more or less on autopilot, but the WoG and the freedom-to are just getting started.

[calamityjane]

Very nicely articulated. I always enjoy reading your insights.