What is everyone doing for ww3?

Intended for constructive conversations. Exhibits of polarizing tribalism will be deleted.
Mister Imperceptible
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Re: What is everyone doing for ww3?

Post by Mister Imperceptible »

The violence everywhere will likely accelerate as humans respond predictably to historical asset-liability mismatches and resource constraints. Right here at the end of the saeculum, and the easiest way to reduce liabilities under resource constraints is to liquidate holders of liabilities.

I continue to see ossification in the corporate realm (on the floor). Bean counters race to bring in cheap labor from India and find the workers are NPCs*. Epic fail and @MI has to clean up your mess and it costs you even more now. In the Soviet Union none of the companies failed until they all did.

Also many of us remember the injection mandates and are now intransigent w.r.t. to all edicts from privileged class forever.

I am amiable to everyone I meet and carry a gun they never see.

*Not all Indians are NPCs but bringing in people to do high level knowledge work who can barely operate Microsoft Office or speak English so you can save 25-50% means you care too much about the next quarterly shareholder meeting.

Mister Imperceptible
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Re: What is everyone doing for ww3?

Post by Mister Imperceptible »

ertyu wrote:
Thu Nov 03, 2022 8:28 pm
On Nov 2nd, Ray Dalio came out with a LinkedIn post arguing that the world is moving towards a state of war (either civil war in the US or confrontation between the US and other up-and-comers internationally or both), with highest probability assigned to 2025. He of course states that this development isn't certain, but provides examples of past restrictions to capital mobility as well as closures of stock markets + the associated losses experienced by investors.
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At the end of the game I select the Princess to meet new and unusual challenges. I may have underestimated her before but I appreciate her ability to float over the conveyor belts.

chenda
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Re: What is everyone doing for ww3?

Post by chenda »

All I see is numbers...is there a conclusion to be drawn ?

Mister Imperceptible
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Re: What is everyone doing for ww3?

Post by Mister Imperceptible »

-10% annualized for a decade from an asset class is getting back 35 cents to the dollar after inflation, so if you are drawing against that asset class in a decade it annualized -10%, it is not much different from -100%. Even -5% is 60 cents on the dollar after 10 years.

But with regards to violence, you can see why humans will act predictably when you see the cost of losing.

Revolutionary France/Napoleon->Congress of Vienna->century of relative peace

WW1/WW2–>United Nations->75+ years of relative peace

Getting to about that time
Last edited by Mister Imperceptible on Wed Nov 09, 2022 4:26 pm, edited 1 time in total.

ertyu
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Re: What is everyone doing for ww3?

Post by ertyu »

chenda wrote:
Wed Nov 09, 2022 3:12 pm
All I see is numbers...is there a conclusion to be drawn ?
equities suck least but in times of war, everyone is fucked. it's not exactly rocket science that when countries are large-scale busy destroying each other's productive capacity investors lose, and may lose catastrophically. also, access to one's capital might be prevented and the mobility of one's capital might be severely hindered. if climate change does bring about a period of global conflict, "VTSAX and chill" no longer applies

chenda
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Re: What is everyone doing for ww3?

Post by chenda »

I see crypto currencies are getting trashed.

Location, location, location... Live in a safe area, or have the means to easily relocate there. North/south 40 degrees or more, diversified local economy, avoid big cities but be close enough to benefit from the supply chains, economic overspill, and essential amenities like law enforcement and medical care (isolation is a double edge sword) Canada, New England, Michigan, Tasmania, New Zealand, British Isles, Scandinavia, Alpine region, northern European plain are preferable overall (and probably a few other areas) Study local natural disasters e.g. flood risk and locate accordingly. Flood risk can change depending on which side of the street you are on.

If you're worried about nuclear war, select a location in the southern hemisphere. Or the centre of a target.

M
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Re: What is everyone doing for ww3?

Post by M »

chenda wrote:
Wed Nov 09, 2022 5:24 pm
If you're worried about nuclear war, select a location in the southern hemisphere. Or the centre of a target.
Hahahahaha That is dark. :twisted:

rref
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Re: What is everyone doing for ww3?

Post by rref »

Join the military.

gettingfired
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Re: What is everyone doing for ww3?

Post by gettingfired »

M wrote:
Wed Nov 09, 2022 6:28 pm
Hahahahaha That is dark. :twisted:
Can~t say I chose on purpose but I live in the city center of NATOs HQ so that should work really well :)

RealPerson
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Re: What is everyone doing for ww3?

Post by RealPerson »

I live my life without giving this question a second of thought.

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Ego
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Re: What is everyone doing for ww3?

Post by Ego »

100 cruise missiles, many targeting infrastructure.

Decentralization seems to have proved to be the successful approach so far. Generator. Water. Heat.

Two missiles exploded in Poland. Escalation? NATO article 5?

zbigi
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Re: What is everyone doing for ww3?

Post by zbigi »

Ego wrote:
Tue Nov 15, 2022 2:56 pm

Two missiles exploded in Poland. Escalation? NATO article 5?
Those hits may be accidental, and accidents don't trigger NATO article 5. Let's see how this plays out.

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Ego
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Re: What is everyone doing for ww3?

Post by Ego »

zbigi wrote:
Tue Nov 15, 2022 3:01 pm
Those hits may be accidental, and accidents don't trigger NATO article 5. Let's see how this plays out.
I hope you are right, but this from the horse's mouth....
https://tass.ru/armiya-i-opk/16335637
MOSCOW, 15 November. /TASS/. The Russian Ministry of Defense called the statements of the Polish media and officials about the fall of supposedly Russian missiles in the Przewoduv region a provocation, there were no strikes by Russian weapons near the Ukrainian-Polish border. This was announced on Tuesday in the Russian Defense Ministry.

"The statements of the Polish media and officials about the alleged fall of" Russian "missiles in the area of ​​​​the settlement of Przewoduv is a deliberate provocation in order to escalate the situation. No strikes were made against targets near the Ukrainian-Polish state border by Russian means of destruction," the ministry said.

As emphasized in the Russian Ministry of Defense, the photographs of the wreckage published by the Polish media from the scene of the incident have nothing to do with Russian weapons.

zbigi
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Re: What is everyone doing for ww3?

Post by zbigi »

I wonder if this might be a deliberate strike done together with today's strikes on targets in Ukraine - so that it leaves Russia's intentions unclear (as it might have been an accident), but also plays very heavily into fears of citizens of NATO countries, so that they perhaps are more relucant about further support for Ukraine. It would be a typical Russian play, they're great at such things (much better than at actual war).

Today, Russia is in absolute no position to atack a NATO country. They're getting their ass kicked in Ukraine and any real attack on NATO would be a madness way beyond even Putin. But, they also know there will be no real repercussions from the West (so the attack is essentially free), and some people in it will react emotionally and be rattled, which is all they need here.

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