Predict VTSAX December Dividend

[Scott 2]

I hold VTSAX in my taxable brokerage accounts. Let's say 10 shares. Can I figure out what the December dividend payment will be?

My current best idea is to look at the payout history over the past 10 years. The biggest number I see is $0.429 per share, so use that. This approach strikes me as crude.

My interest is in managing total income, so I don't break into the next income band for ACA health insurance. That's potentially expensive, especially if it creates headaches in qualifying for cost sharing next year. However, I would like to accumulate income up to the top of my current band this year, so over-estimating the dividend is also negative.

[unemployable]

Look up the average dividend increase so far this year and apply that to last December's number, with perhaps a 1% margin of safety. I'd guess this would be around 45¢.

For those not aware, dividend payouts are typically higher in December than in the other three quarters, as some companies issue special annual dividends at the end of the year.

On the off chance the dividend tax is increased for 2023 some companies will front-run this with a large payout at the end of this year, as happened at the end of 2012.

Also if the stonk market craps the bed, or should I say continues sitting on the toilet with the same acute pain it's been feeling for the past month, in the next couple months some companies may cut or eliminate their dividends, as happened after 2008 and going into covid.

Point is, follow the news for unforeseen changes at the whole market level.

[Scott 2]

That makes sense. Thanks.

In my case, a sudden drop in the dividend is much less concerning. Depending how I fill the remaining tax advantaged space, I may welcome it.