Will Gas Stations Exist In 15 Years?

[ether]

ever been into a wawa? these things are gas stations, full restaurant, and have full ev charging stations.
I go to the gas station to get booze and snacks since it's closer to my house than a grocery store

[WFJ]

We'll build the EV battery dumps in your backyard. Thanks for volunteering

[WFJ]

Buc-ee's can survive a 100+ year famine.

[M]

https://insideevs.com/news/607856/globa ... y2022/amp/

E.V. sales continue to accelerate. In July plug ins had a 14% share, globally. This seems very region specific though, and very political for some reason. Some of my more right wing family members do not believe electric cars exist yet in real life and hate the cars with all their being. Meanwhile some left wing family members are already driving them. The next family get together will be interesting.

In California they are already passing laws banning new gas vehicle sales starting in 2035. Maybe the question of if gasoline will still be cheap and available will depend on if you are living in a red or blue state in the future. Or maybe people in blue states who still want gas cars will simply drive to a red state to buy them.

[theanimal]

I read an article earlier this year that talked about the limitations of infrastructure for urban areas with regards to electric vehicles. I can't find it now but will post if I do. Basically the gist is that large scale adoption of electric vehicles would require a complete revamping of urban electrical infrastructure as the wires and cables in place are not only dated but are nowhere near close to supporting high energy requirements of electric vehicles, especially for multi unit buildings in urban areas.

There was also a study commissioned by the US Dept of Energy that studied electric vehicles at scale and how that would affect the western grid (US) in 2028. For the purposes of the study, they assumed a very high adoption rate which meant that there were 24 million electric light duty vehicles, 200,000 medium duty vehicles and 150,000 heavy duty vehicles. They found that the western grid could support this but it would be the maximum number and would run into issues with transmission congestion if the infrastructure is as stands. There is more of a buffer if people charge at times when the grid is under less load, rather than when the drivers got home/whenever they wanted. This seems like wishful thinking to me.

I haven't read any studies about the same scenario applied to the eastern grid, but it has roughly 3x the capacity of the western grid. So for discussion purposes and under the same assumptions, say that maximum number of light duty vehicles in the east is 72 million vehicles. For a combined total of 96 million vehicles nationwide. Again this is what the industry says is currently the absolute maximum, and can fail if there is too much demand at one time.

For reference there are ~285 million vehicles currently registered in the US. ~1.5 billion vehicles in the world. The number of electric vehicles on the road worldwide as of the end of last year totaled 12 million.

[chenda]

I suspect the war and ever increasing petrol costs will further fuel demand for electric vehicles.

There may be a point of critical mass where EV render much of the ICE infrastructure uneconomic and force universal adoption.

Finding a petrol station might be like finding somewhere to develop a Kodak film. They still exist but as a specialist service only. No road tripping in an ICE.

[Seppia]

I suspect the war and ever increasing petrol costs will further fuel demand for electric vehicles.

There may be a point of critical mass where EV render much of the ICE infrastructure uneconomic and force universal adoption.

Finding a petrol station might be like finding somewhere to develop a Kodak film. They still exist but as a specialist service only. No road tripping in an ICE.

Gas in Europe is less than 1.5x what it was a year ago, electricity is 5x.

The crazy thing for me: the sensible thing to do for the environment (outside of not owning a car) is to buy a second hand small 4cyl car with good gas mileage and use it as little as possible.
2t monstrosities like a Model S and their massive battery full or rare earth minerals aren't exactly "great for the planet"

[jacob]

The crazy thing for me: the sensible thing to do for the environment (outside of not owning a car) is to buy a second hand small 4cyl car with good gas mileage and use it as little as possible. 2t monstrosities like a Model S and their massive battery full or rare earth minerals aren't exactly "great for the planet"

Change is rarely driven by sensibilities. It's more of a fashion thing. The Elon Musk strategy was/is to use clown-EVs to convert people who would otherwise buy clown-ICEs and use the increased clown-margin to fund the development of sensible-EVs and over time convert the sensible-ICE owners to sensible-EV owners. And the long game strategy is/was to corner the battery market knowing that other manufacturers would jump on the sensible-EV when/if profit is demonstrated. Whether there's enough lithium for this adventure is can kicked down the road.

Obviously, there's a rational solution here... but it's equally(?!) obvious is that humans aren't known to be rational.

[chenda]

Gas in Europe is less than 1.5x what it was a year ago, electricity is 5x.

Apparently though it costs less than half to recharge an EV than the equivalent in petrol/diesel. A full tank of fuel costs roughly £90, the electric equivalent about £40. Though of course these figures may vary elsewhere in Europe.

But I do agree EV have issues. Cobalt production for the batteries is apparently mined by African children. Best to avoid ownership if possible.

[unemployable]

Finding a petrol station might be like finding somewhere to develop a Kodak film. They still exist but as a specialist service only. No road tripping in an ICE.

We're nowhere near starting to have viable EV heavy-goods trucks with the range the marketplace requires. They run on diesel, and if you're refining crude into diesel you might as well keep refining gasoline too, and crude isn't fungible like that anyway. Which brings up another point, we'll still have diesel locomotives and it would be greener to use some of what would be the "waste products" of the refining process than just dump it.

Now maybe we can electrify highways similar to how some rail networks are, but that's even further away than like, getting on the waiting list for a Tesla.

[jacob]

But I do agree EV have issues. Cobalt production for the batteries is apparently mined by African children. Best to avoid ownership if possible.

Coltan, look it up and weep. Prime ingredient in smart phone production since a long time. Important resources beget conflict. Conflict begets exploitation. ICE->EV just shifts the location of the impact. As long as it's far away, consumers can simultaneously protest its use and keep using it at the same time. Once it gets close that becomes much more difficult. Methinks it would be wise to refocus on "what happens when things get close".

Don't ask if gas stations still exist. Ask if you live in place that can [mostly!] function without gas stations ... or electricity(*). Likely they will still exist, but this will give you optionality. As a rule of thumb, if you can't withstand a 10x increase in utility, food, or transportation cost relative to what you currently buy from the consumer economy, you're not all that resilient.

(*) Actually, ask if you're living in a place that still functions on the lowest margin. It's the same as making resilient investments.

[Seppia]

Obviously, there's a rational solution here

"what do you mean you go to work by bike?"
"did you say you WALK 20 minutes to work?"
"you commute 30 miles BY TRAIN?"

[chenda]

We're nowhere near starting to have viable EV heavy-goods trucks with the range the marketplace requires.

Many countries are banning the sale of new ICE vehicles over the next decade.

[M]

https://youtu.be/AHgAcbpsujI - An interesting overview on the issue of lithium supply.

Basically, if we find a cost effective way to recycle batteries we are set...OR if we find a cost effective way to extract it from sea water, since lithium exists in sea water, we are also set. If you believe the battery recycling companies this problem is already solved, actually....

Many of the other issues brought up in this thread about rare earth metals have already been solved using lithium iron phosphate batteries as well, which have a very long cycle life as well and are already being used in Tesla standard range vehicles as well as most Chinese made evs. Ford is also switching over to LFP batteries next year for the mache e. LFP batteries do not contain rare earth metals, have a 3-10k life cycle, and are safer and (most important) much cheaper than traditional lithium ion batteries. And again - these are already both in use and in mass production (mostly in China) today in some of the most popular electric vehicles sold.

For the electric grid, we will need to increase electric generation capacity by about 20-30% in the US, depending on different estimates. This can be done in a 30 year period pretty easily. Electric cars don't use as much electric as many people assume, compared to our current capacity. We've already been building electric power stations and distribution systems for a long time now.

[mooretrees]

Don't ask if gas stations still exist. Ask if you live in place that can [mostly!] function without gas stations ... or electricity(*). Likely they will still exist, but this will give you optionality. As a rule of thumb, if you can't withstand a 10x increase in utility, food, or transportation cost relative to what you currently buy from the consumer economy, you're not all that resilient.

(*) Actually, ask if you're living in a place that still functions on the lowest margin. It's the same as making resilient investments.

How do I evaluate my community in this light? Look at where we get electricity? Water? Can we grow more food if we needed to? I’m struggling with how to actually put this into practice.

[theanimal]

Many countries are banning the sale of new ICE vehicles over the next decade.

Beware of conflating policy (real or desired) with technological reality.

[M]

Beware of conflating policy (real or desired) with technological reality.

Most of the bans I have read about apply to passenger vehicles, not large semi trucks which I believe is what he was originally referring to.

With that said - having a large semi truck ev that is more economical and better performing than a diesel semi is certainly possible. The biggest issue will be stopping at a fast charger for an hour every 5-8 hours of driving time. In the US though this won't be a huge issue simply because truck drivers are already limited to how many hours they can drive in a certain time period anyway. Charging will simply take place during the times they are already legally required to rest. This will just be a slight difference in routine.

Of course...this does not exist yet. I'm just repeating what Elon has said about his semi-truck, which, God only knows when or if it will ever enter production. Which I assume is why they aren't banning diesel semis yet. It's kind of hard to ban something when no replacement exists yet.

[jacob]

How do I evaluate my community in this light? Look at where we get electricity? Water? Can we grow more food if we needed to? I’m struggling with how to actually put this into practice.

Community?

Look at the usage portion of the electricity bill and 10x the cost presuming that fees and taxes stay the same. If the result is unaffordable, find ways to reduce electricity usage or install solar panels.

Same with the other dependencies.

This only touches on whether things are affordable in principle (the market is still open, not rationed). To check whether utilities, etc. are still delivered at all requires going to the source. For example, our water comes from Lake Michigan. Our electricity comes from nukes and coal-plants about an hour away from here. Our food ...

[chenda]

Look at the usage portion of the electricity bill and 10x the cost presuming that fees and taxes stay the same.

What's the reasoning behind the x10 figure? If that happened almost no one could afford electricity.

[ertyu]

They could, they'd just have to use it very very differently.

Which reminds me of something I've been thinking: does your system by itself have passive draw? As in would my meter be registering a small use if everything is unplugged from the wall but I still have wires going around my house? How important is it to consumption, for instance, to have newer wires, or less wiring around the house? Do cables from 20-30 years ago have higher resistance, for instance?