Bitcoin on the rise

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WFJ
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Re: Bitcoin on the rise

Post by WFJ »

HODLers remind me of this clip from long ago, where the HOLDer is portrayed by the Black Knight and reality is played by King Arthur.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ZmInkxbvlCs

jacob
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Re: Bitcoin on the rise

Post by jacob »

I figure we're watching a combination of the late 1970's attempt to store "value" in collectibles ... and the late 1990's attempt to pick the next dotcom because anyone can download the software and ICO a new collectible.

Some twenty years from now, crypto will be a thing ... and most people will be commenting "if only I had bought X back in 2015 ...". While lamenting how "nobody is interesting in my collection of beanie goldie chiapets dot com".

History is written by the winners. This also goes for financial history.

It's much harder to see it when you're in it.

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Jean
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Re: Bitcoin on the rise

Post by Jean »

except it already regrew new stronger limb a few times.

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Mister Imperceptible
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Re: Bitcoin on the rise

Post by Mister Imperceptible »

Is the limb stronger, or just bigger but actually weaker?

Image

Source

WFJ
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Re: Bitcoin on the rise

Post by WFJ »

How many crabs die for each one that survives to adulthood?

Tulips, shipping, railroads, radio all had massive bubbles in the past where hundreds of years later we use these products every day, but anyone who invested in them during the bubble have been crushed. Crypto may be around in 20 years but will be as profitable as buying South Sea Trading or RCA back in the heyday.

FYI, all crypto including "stable coins" have a market cap lower than a bad one-day selloff in the Nasdaq (it's close today). Meaning all crypto is a completely irrelevant in the financial world, despite massive advertising and promotion. When compared to the bond or derivative markets, all crypto is a rounding error that would go unnoticed for months if fat-fingered to $0 on the financial world's balance sheet.

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Jean
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Re: Bitcoin on the rise

Post by Jean »

so, is it too big, or is it too small?

zbigi
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Re: Bitcoin on the rise

Post by zbigi »

WFJ wrote:
Wed May 18, 2022 2:56 pm

FYI, all crypto including "stable coins" have a market cap lower than a bad one-day selloff in the Nasdaq (it's close today).
OTOH, it's around 10-20% of gold market cap. It's not nothing.

WFJ
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Re: Bitcoin on the rise

Post by WFJ »

It's nothing. Hot air buoyed by debt and liquidity. If all crypto disappeared tomorrow, only social media ad companies would be impacted. Crypto will slowly bleed out (2017-2020 before COVID stimmies) over years as rates normalize and crypto bros have to move out of their parents' basements, pay rent and buy cars to commute to Starbucks/Amazon fulfillment centers.

OutOfTheBlue
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Re: Bitcoin on the rise

Post by OutOfTheBlue »

WFJ, you talk as if there was "we" and the "others". As if HODLers, crypto bros, or whatever you fancy to call them were outsiders.

However, I think you are well aware that some participants in this forum, in this community, hold crypto assets.

So, what is the purpose of this flurry of disparaging posts? Is this meant to be insulting? Entertaining? To whom?

Many paths lead to ERE, and no path is the same. Each have their place and should not be derided.

Let's start by showing respect to other ERE players and refuse to assume they are clueless simply because their decisions, approaches or way of life is different.

Otherwise, what will be dismissed next? Where does this end?

I came here to find a safe space where I can connect with and be inspired by like-minded individuals, whatever our individual differences. These differences are a wealth. It is already hard enough to step out of the beaten path and create stories that stray from the script.

Don't you think we all are on the ERE side?

Can't we all benefit from avoiding such dismissive comments and operating at a more cordial/supportive level?

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Jean
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Re: Bitcoin on the rise

Post by Jean »

I would be very interested to read @WFJ's whole story with crypto investing.

WFJ
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Re: Bitcoin on the rise

Post by WFJ »

Jean wrote:
Thu May 26, 2022 5:14 am
I would be very interested to read @WFJ's whole story with crypto investing.
Was first pitched Bitcoin in 2012-2013, where pitch was about the math/stats properties of Bitcoin and elegant solution to human managed monetary policy. After pitch wrote a short essay "The Emperor's New Crypto" as my main critique was that for all technologies, a killer app must be developed, anyone that developed a killer app could also develop their own crypto currency and therefore, a killer app would not provide any value to current Bitcoin holders. The response from HODLers was there would never be more than a few cryptos.

My objection is still true today. any killer app will have all the bargaining power relative to any crypto system used and not provide any value to the crypto holders. A simple analogy is who made more money, someone who owned a mile of a highway or McDonalds who develop a technology that benefited from the use of highways/US car culture. HODLers own a mile of a freeway, but there isn't even a McDonald's yet, 10+ years from creating the freeway.

2014-2017 pitched several times as a balance to "Fiat currency" and wheelbarrow money comparing the US to post WWI Germany. There is a limited number of countries who issue semi-unlimited currencies. There is an unlimited number of crypto currencies that can limit the number of units. In this model, there is no benefit to own a limited supply of unlimited currencies vs. a limited supply of countries who issue semi-unlimited currencies. If there are so many brilliant minds in crypto, please provide math proof counter to this simple critique.

Out of curiosity and to comply with all tax laws bought GBTC in early 2016 before travel with vacation money and sold before travel in late 2017. Maybe made 10x-15x returns, reinvested gain into general market (up 100%+ since then) and can go on vacation for a long time with capital. GBTC roughly flat from around where sold, 0% return for 5 years while market has ripped and inflation is ripping.

2020-2022 A friend asked me to look at Bored Ape Yacht Club NFTs maybe two years ago and was shocked that the pitch of crypto had progressed from a math solution (2012) to economic solution (2014-2017) to a cult/lifestyle pitch for survivors of abuse by 2020. The appeal was to "join the club", "Us against them" pitch that is effective to a small but idle portion of the society that was just handed billions of dollars in stimulus checks.

I would enjoy developing stats properties of different cryptos, but without a killer app, it is just a magic bean or other speculative asset that is being pitched to people who don't understand any aspect of the asset. I would prefer the Fed use a more systems-based approach and even introduce random events into the monetary system forcing everyone to consider random events rather than the assumption that the Fed will come to the recue, creating situations like was are dealing with now. But Bitcoin/crypt is not a solution to this valid problem of a human led monetary systems.

jacob
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Re: Bitcoin on the rise

Post by jacob »

https://www.marketwatch.com/story/binan ... 1655129426

Any technical reasons why there's a delay in terms of withdrawing BTC from an exchange? What does "getting stuck due to low fees" mean?

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unemployable
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Re: Bitcoin on the rise

Post by unemployable »

jacob wrote:
Mon Jun 13, 2022 10:35 am
What does "getting stuck due to low fees" mean?
"We're really screwed and can't come up with a better excuse"

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Seppia
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Re: Bitcoin on the rise

Post by Seppia »

unemployable wrote:
Mon Jun 13, 2022 10:55 am
"We're really screwed and can't come up with a better excuse"
“Sorry but we need to front run you”

Humanofearth
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Re: Bitcoin on the rise

Post by Humanofearth »

@Jacob
An exchange, like any other participant, posts a fee to get a transaction processed. If too low, it’ll delay for up to days.

On recent withdrawal freezes: Celsius is extremely sketchy. Binance has had freezes on withdrawals extremely frequently. It’s not systemwide but typically on a few specific coins through specific networks. Ie-btc via btc network or more commonly eth cannot be withdrawn via avax or arbitrum network but can via bsc or eth network. If Binance freezes indefinitely, btc will die mtgox style, again.

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Mister Imperceptible
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Re: Bitcoin on the rise

Post by Mister Imperceptible »

https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=BciS5krYL80

“You can check out anytime you like but you can never leave. 🎶

fingeek
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Re: Bitcoin on the rise

Post by fingeek »

... and with this, note that binance had only paused BTC withdrawals on the bitcoin network. You could still withdraw BTC on other networks like ethereum.

jacob
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Re: Bitcoin on the rise

Post by jacob »

Humanofearth wrote:
Mon Jun 13, 2022 11:19 am
An exchange, like any other participant, posts a fee to get a transaction processed. If too low, it’ll delay for up to days.
Could you elaborate? I'm familiar with equity transaction fees being negative, positive, ... and comprised of several different intermediates. (This is how retailers get free trades in return for providing liquidity.) However, the idea of fees delaying transactions is new to me. It suggests a negotiated time-cost. In the old-school market, this is already settled as T+a few days. Does crypto consider settling time fluid?

fingeek
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Re: Bitcoin on the rise

Post by fingeek »

It's due to the wallet being an address entity in its own right. With one address you can start multiple transactions, but they will be dispatched into the network one by one (ordered by nonce). And the first transaction must complete (ie be mined and succeed or fail, transaction added to the blockchain) before the next transaction will be processed. If that first transaction doesn't have enough "gas" then it will delay until/if a miner wants to pick it up... Hence the backlog.

Humanofearth
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Re: Bitcoin on the rise

Post by Humanofearth »

F ingeek explained the gist.

To add.

The Bitcoin network is composed of 3 main groups: nodes (validate and broadcast transactions), miners (process transactions via pow), and the holders (sign transactions).

Bitcoin sends value from p2p extremely securely but slowly and expensively on the base layer. There are other networks to move Bitcoin like Lightning Network, still on Bitcoin base layer and is how Bitcoin pays for Starbucks in El Salvador for nearly free and instantly, or ethereum network, as a wrapped derivative secured by a contract and thus has many added risks. These other layers are typically cheaper and faster but less securely.

So let’s say I want to sign a Bitcoin transaction. I get my Cold Card, enter my credentials, sign and confirm the transaction with my private node running on my raspberry pi 4, and now the miners must process as the transaction is honest.

There’s 2 rewards for miners to process the transaction: the mining reward that’s cut in half every 4 years + my transaction fee. My transaction fee competes with every other transaction published to get included in a block. The higher it is, the higher the likelihood of a quick transaction. Set the fee too low and it gets delayed indefinitely. Set up a chain of transactions to process where one got broadcast with too low a transaction fee and it can delay for a good while. However, in this case, you could still withdraw Bitcoin as the wrapped eth based version and unwrap it. Or just withdraw eth or monero or usdc and trade it on a dex like bisq for btc.

If you’re getting curious yet, Bitcoin on a Cold Card with private keys engraved in dog tags with a jewelry engraving pen in several locations (Passport Foundation or Bitbox02 are acceptable alternatives) with a Raspberry Pi 4 is the minimum to be secure. Use several wallets to make a multi-sig and you’re good.

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