Is Software Development/ Programming Oversaturated?

Anything to do with the traditional world of get a degree, get a job as well as its alternatives
guitarplayer
Posts: 1300
Joined: Thu Feb 27, 2020 6:43 pm
Location: Scotland

Re: Is Software Development/ Programming Oversaturated?

Post by guitarplayer »

Thanks both of you @Blackjack and @zbigi.

@Blackjack this is a great feedback from someone who actually employs entry level coders, thank you. I have set up an account on Codewars now. Why 'unfortunately', is it because it boils down to ploughing through the tasks?

@zbigi, with no prior experience of the fields, (back-end) software engineering (or generally coding) feels like more 'honest work' in the sense that there are some problems that have to be solved using certain tools. I think I am good at this generally / have the potential to become good at this in the coding world. (Data) science I feel can be frustrating as a job in the sense that one comes to some conclusions that make sense but are ignored when presented for irrational reasons.

Also, plainly speaking, I would like to learn how to code. Seems to me that coding is a powerful tool that can be learned on the job while getting paid a lot of money after some initial time investment.

Data Science has much more of an 'art' feel to it in my eyes.

Please correct if I am wrong / expand on the pros and cons you see.

zbigi
Posts: 978
Joined: Fri Oct 30, 2020 2:04 pm

Re: Is Software Development/ Programming Oversaturated?

Post by zbigi »

guitarplayer wrote:
Tue Jan 11, 2022 1:32 pm
I agree with your assessment, with one caveat that data scientist actually spend most of their days coding (they need to write code to collect, clean up, organize, transform etc. data that they will feed into the models - typically the "mathy and creative" part of the work takes less than 10% of their time). It's just that their code is simple and throwaway, and hence much easier and more pleasant to work with. Usually, they don't have to cooperate with anyone on this code, which, to this software engineer, sounds like bliss.

The downside of being a DS is, as you said, the need to sell your results. As in other areas of science, your discoveries are worthless until you convince people that they're actually not, and they start acting on them. Not always it's a big deal though - if you happen to work as a DS who's part of the software product team and working on "optimizing engagement" (e.g. figuring out ways to make people click on ads more often ), then you'll be proposing a lot of small improvements to the product, and not doing iconoclast presentations to the board of company directors :)

Also, the job market for data scientists is considerably worse than for SEs - there's at least an order of magnitude fewer DS jobs than SE jobs, and every person with any kind of quantitative science background is at least thinking about landing one - it's one of the very few shortcuts to six figure career for anyone who went for a PhD in hard sciences (or even some social sciences). Hence, you'd be competing with a lot of smart people who have actually done something like DS work (and hence know the tooling and are well-versed in practical application of statistics) for the duration of their PhD studies.

guitarplayer
Posts: 1300
Joined: Thu Feb 27, 2020 6:43 pm
Location: Scotland

Re: Is Software Development/ Programming Oversaturated?

Post by guitarplayer »

Cool, thanks for this @zbigi. I almost want to say that I would be keen to end up being SE for earning money and DS for life choices.

It is interesting that you have mentioned data science in this context as the company that offers the funded Web Dev Essentials course also offers a Data Science essentials course. I chose the former one, because it is twice as long (so more potential learning) and has a price tag triple the data science one.

Wrapping up the derail and coming back to the OP: how would you say is the market saturation for programming jobs in Poland vs e.g. UK? I could imagine quite a bit of geoarbitrage (lower cost of life etc.) outsourcing going on.

Blackjack
Posts: 69
Joined: Sat Oct 17, 2020 12:36 am
Location: Front Range, bikescore 99

Re: Is Software Development/ Programming Oversaturated?

Post by Blackjack »

Poland and UK are both excessively cheap (in terms of salary for a SE); any US company wanting to outsource to other countries will look at both of them... From this implication, I would imagine Poland could quadruple or quintuple its current number of software engineers, and the demand would still exceed them.

zbigi
Posts: 978
Joined: Fri Oct 30, 2020 2:04 pm

Re: Is Software Development/ Programming Oversaturated?

Post by zbigi »

Yes, Polish market is insane thanks to geoarbitrate opportunities and low taxes for SEs - this year, the government lowered them even more, and right now it's a flat rate of 12%, for people who are often in the top 1% of income... Not sure about the logic behind that, but thank you, crazy populist right-wingers.

UK is also very good, as long as by UK you mean London :) Outside of London and the London area (Oxford, Cambridge), things get progressively more grim. But, London is awesome, contracting rates are at 400-700 pounds per day (the full-time jobs pay less, are taxed more, and are essentially paid training until you can tap into the long-term contracts where the real money is) and, as long as you know the current tech du jour, getting those contracts is not hard.

Speaking of tech, Python is currently pretty hot in the area called Data Engineering (building pipelines for moving large amounts of data between systems), but it's popularity on the web backend side (i.e. the thing that you're being taught in your bootcamp) is not that high, at least in Poland/UK. It's a fairly popular choice in startups though, so the market for Python backend jobs might look better in the US (US have the most startups).

guitarplayer
Posts: 1300
Joined: Thu Feb 27, 2020 6:43 pm
Location: Scotland

Re: Is Software Development/ Programming Oversaturated?

Post by guitarplayer »

Nope @zbigi, by UK I meant Scotland in particular which has a rather weak job market compared to its southern cousin. We might relocate though. When I read what you write I feel like I can spot a job right after getting this training! Will see how it goes. I by no means can claim now that I know exactly where I want to go with it, but yes pretty keen to build some some things with code.

The 'bootcamp' is only a fragment of a full fledged bootcamp (around 70-80h), but I am thrilled that I will get to develop an app with Python. To give you some context, I have spent the last few years doing care which is perhaps the other end of the spectrum of human activities (although I do see some, few, parallels and similarities nevertheless). But also pay wise, it should be extremely easy for me to start earning more money due to low initial bar. So far I have been focusing on other aspects of ERE.

The full bootcamp would also involve learning Java and JavaScript for about 30-40h each, I would need to pay around £4000 for a top up in addition to the £3000 for Python that is gov funded.

@Blackjack, if I somehow manage to get good at it and working in the field, I might target Switzerland which is visa-free access for me and salaries are between the UK and US ones, closer to the US ones. But this is light years ahead now. I might try starting off in Poland for an easier foot in the door.

Actually now that I think about it, I have a (pretty good back in the days) friend in Warsaw who's been working as a programmer/ (senior) software developer for some big companies for the past 5+ years. I am pretty sure that I can make it if he made it.

zbigi
Posts: 978
Joined: Fri Oct 30, 2020 2:04 pm

Re: Is Software Development/ Programming Oversaturated?

Post by zbigi »

guitarplayer wrote:
Tue Jan 11, 2022 4:37 pm
When I read what you write I feel like I can spot a job right after getting this training!
I might have been giving the wrong impression then. It's a super sweet gig if you're already at the high end of the field (say 10+ years of experience), but I'm hearing that the junior market is currently already somewhat saturated with people pumped out by various bootcamps, and by people who try to retrain in other ways. The second factor is Python - an easiest way to get the foot in the door is probably front-end development with Javascript, while backend Python is somewhat of a niche.

guitarplayer
Posts: 1300
Joined: Thu Feb 27, 2020 6:43 pm
Location: Scotland

Re: Is Software Development/ Programming Oversaturated?

Post by guitarplayer »

Note taken, thanks @zbigi.

white belt
Posts: 1452
Joined: Sat May 21, 2011 12:15 am

Re: Is Software Development/ Programming Oversaturated?

Post by white belt »

In the US, how much of software developer salary inflation is related to the excess liquidity of the last decade? Tech firms, who employ armies of developers, haven't had to actually turn a profit because they have an endless flow of cheap money coming in from Private Equity, VC, IPOs, and other sources (see ponzi sector, ARKK, etc). It's easy to dump money into top talent in such an environment without really caring if you are getting commensurate output.

Certainly nearly all companies need software developers in one form or another, but it seems like salaries are largely set by what the big Silicon Valley names pay. I wonder if a rotation away from that sector could cause a contraction in salaries.

zbigi
Posts: 978
Joined: Fri Oct 30, 2020 2:04 pm

Re: Is Software Development/ Programming Oversaturated?

Post by zbigi »

white belt wrote:
Tue Jan 11, 2022 6:05 pm
In the US, how much of software developer salary inflation is related to the excess liquidity of the last decade? Tech firms, who employ armies of developers, haven't had to actually turn a profit because they have an endless flow of cheap money coming in from Private Equity, VC, IPOs, and other sources (see ponzi sector, ARKK, etc). It's easy to dump money into top talent in such an environment without really caring if you are getting commensurate output.

Certainly nearly all companies need software developers in one form or another, but it seems like salaries are largely set by what the big Silicon Valley names pay. I wonder if a rotation away from that sector could cause a contraction in salaries.
The highest salaries are paid by companies which don't need venture capital at all, but are instead hugely profitable: Google, Facebook, Apple etc.

If we companies like that, the rest of the market in the US is mostly paying in the $130-$200k range for senior SEs, which is not that much more than what other engineering fields pay for senior roles. The main difference might be how long it takes you to reach that seniority level - in software, there are 26-28 year old "senior" engineers :), which is probably unheard of in other engineering fields.

Blackjack
Posts: 69
Joined: Sat Oct 17, 2020 12:36 am
Location: Front Range, bikescore 99

Re: Is Software Development/ Programming Oversaturated?

Post by Blackjack »

zbigi wrote:
Tue Jan 11, 2022 6:28 pm
The highest salaries are paid by companies which don't need venture capital at all, but are instead hugely profitable: Google, Facebook, Apple etc.

If we companies like that, the rest of the market in the US is mostly paying in the $130-$200k range for senior SEs, which is not that much more than what other engineering fields pay for senior roles. The main difference might be how long it takes you to reach that seniority level - in software, there are 26-28 year old "senior" engineers :), which is probably unheard of in other engineering fields.
hey! stop calling me out like that ;) . But yeah I've been a "senior" engineer since I was 25 IIRC. And agreed on the VC firms as well, My 26 year old senior SWE friend 3-4x her salary after moving to one of the big 5. There is a secondary argument more in alignment with what white belt is arguing for, which is the startup engineers who are getting paid a lower or normal salary but with the equivalent of 1M in stock if the company ever goes public. Stock is dirt cheap to the startups and I've heard more than a few people arguing that the VC money trickle is a big ponzi scheme https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=zU5JsP6pUpc (this is info-tainment, don't take it toooo seriously).

User avatar
fiby41
Posts: 1611
Joined: Tue Jan 13, 2015 8:09 am
Location: India
Contact:

Re: Is Software Development/ Programming Oversaturated?

Post by fiby41 »

@white belt What is ARKK?

@guitarplayer The reason zbigi says that python is less used in backend development is because of its slower speed. But if you feel comfortable with it there is nothing stopping you from using it in personal projects. If you do, it'd make sense to pick between either Flask or Django.

You asked about what projects to put on your github. I'd say what interests you but if it is a frontend project try hosting it with GitHub Pages.

There is no harm in learning Java but the type of jobs it brings is usually maintaining legacy code. MNCs ask for just the language but smaller companies ask for a particular framework of the language they are using internally such as Spring MVC, Spring Boot. It may even be possible that a company that still uses java does not use git for version control but instead uses SVN (subversion.)

jacob
Site Admin
Posts: 15906
Joined: Fri Jun 28, 2013 8:38 pm
Location: USA, Zone 5b, Koppen Dfa, Elev. 620ft, Walkscore 77
Contact:

Re: Is Software Development/ Programming Oversaturated?

Post by jacob »

fiby41 wrote:
Sun Jan 23, 2022 11:46 am
@white belt What is ARKK?
Ticker symbol.

guitarplayer
Posts: 1300
Joined: Thu Feb 27, 2020 6:43 pm
Location: Scotland

Re: Is Software Development/ Programming Oversaturated?

Post by guitarplayer »

Thanks for the encouragement @fiby41. As part of the 72h WebDev Essentials training I got funded, I will learn about HTML5, CSS3 and Django, and it will kickstart me with GitHub. I think I will post some LaTeX templates on there too, if that is possible. I created some good scripts for writing mathematics at an undergrad level, and personally having pieces of script will make it easier for me to put together new assignments. As of now I go back to old files that I remember have a piece of code that I need.

I had an option of a 40 h course on R instead, but opted for this as it is an intro course and I already got familiarised with R once, unlike the software mentioned above.

It starts in 2 weeks, I look forward to it!

ether
Posts: 263
Joined: Sat Nov 17, 2012 1:50 am
Location: Jacksonville, FL
Contact:

Re: Is Software Development/ Programming Oversaturated?

Post by ether »

Nope. Wages are still sky high with mid level work paying $70/hr for database work and $100/hr for in demand software engineers. Silicon valley is driving wages sky high due to fierce competition and the move to cloud based solutions has created a ton of work for us not working at tech firms. The great thing about software is that what we build only has a lifespan of like 7 years before a new paradigm comes around and generates a ton of work to migrate to the new cheaper, faster and more efficient platform. Think about how much work people in construction would have if homes broke down every 7 years!!

Humanofearth
Posts: 188
Joined: Sun Mar 28, 2021 3:32 am

Re: Is Software Development/ Programming Oversaturated?

Post by Humanofearth »

A lot of the big legacy internet companies like Google and Netflix, that provide services easy to copy/paste with pirate bay/torrents and privacy respecting search engines, are losing programmers to user owned economies now. Get into crypto for programming. Lots more growth.

guitarplayer
Posts: 1300
Joined: Thu Feb 27, 2020 6:43 pm
Location: Scotland

Re: Is Software Development/ Programming Oversaturated?

Post by guitarplayer »

I am more interested in lack of politics than growth, the mindset of 'growth' can cause troubles, what about degrowth?

So what do you think, is there lost of politics in software development / programming? I am doing this mini bootcamp now, currently learn Python. One of the instructors is quite extroverted and sometimes talks about how things are being 'frowned upon' etc. Not sure how much this relates to a job actually done in a less-than-optimal way and how much to 'this-is-the-way-we-do-it-here'.

Opinions?

zbigi
Posts: 978
Joined: Fri Oct 30, 2020 2:04 pm

Re: Is Software Development/ Programming Oversaturated?

Post by zbigi »

guitarplayer wrote:
Fri Feb 18, 2022 4:18 am
Unfortunately, as with all complex white collar jobs, software development is rife with politics.
If you want to see an insider's view on a somewhat extreme example (Valve, the company behind Steam, the de-facto-monopoly in PC games distribution), read through Rich Geldreich's Twitter acount history (@richgel999). A typical software job will probably have 10-20% of the political games he describes.

User avatar
Slevin
Posts: 626
Joined: Tue Sep 01, 2015 7:44 pm
Location: Sonoma County

Re: Is Software Development/ Programming Oversaturated?

Post by Slevin »

Agree with @zbigi. Some places have less annoying politics, but everywhere has "best practices" and "coding standards" which are a "do it this way in our code (even though you could make several different choices) because we say so", where the "because we say so" is due to the need for consistency in the code base.

Generally I have found startups either awful or really chill. The larger the org, the more rife with annoying red tape and complex politics. The more chill places I have been still have some politics, but the architects will usually be receptive to improved designs if they are found. Regardless of where you are, don't be "that guy" going in and trying to change working things that don't need improved (unless they are hard to maintain, have a critical bug, etc).

"Things being frowned upon" can mean anything from "bad coding practice" to "against our specific standards (or preferences)" to "bit us in the butt one time and cost us loads of money so we don't do that anymore".

guitarplayer
Posts: 1300
Joined: Thu Feb 27, 2020 6:43 pm
Location: Scotland

Re: Is Software Development/ Programming Oversaturated?

Post by guitarplayer »

Thanks guys, as always I appreciate the high quality no bs input on this forum (@jacob please keep the forum going it’s a good forum!). Hence learning to code might just turn out to be the easy(-ier) part.

Post Reply