Investments Trade Log

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Lemur
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Re: Investments Trade Log

Post by Lemur »

Sold put on Visa for 30 days out. $220 P. Beats earnings but decreases 5%. Priced in..should start its slow climb back up.

I've been rolling out another Visa put for months now at the $235 strike. Delta build up is powerful when you expire eventually (only works if you assume that one day...it will be back up. Don't do this on stocks you've no conviction on :D ).

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LetsRetireYoung
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Re: Investments Trade Log

Post by LetsRetireYoung »

Fun thread. :) I made a lot of money swing-trading GameStop this year, from way back in January... (The easiest 293% return I ever made mwahaha) This time around, I squirreled away 100 shares solely to sell weekly covered calls. (Never done that before.)

Yesterday, I made $155 by selling a $185c GME covered call with 10/29 expiration. If it doesn't get cashed in, I make $155. If it does, I sell the stock I'd bought at $169 for a nice profit and still pocket that $155 mwahaha. It's odd to think of such casual legalized... not gambling, but betting, maybe? netting me more money that I would've made in a single day back when I did manual warehouse labour. How fast things change...

I'll likely start selling weekly calls on other stocks I'm holding.

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Lemur
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Re: Investments Trade Log

Post by Lemur »

Rolled AMD covered calls out & up.
Visa $205 P closed out for a profit.
NOK $6.00 CC's expired worthless
Added $4k to Visa position.

Seeing MRNA fall from $320 to $236 is making me really relieved I dropped my naked puts last month...holy moly I would've lost multiple years of expenses had I held on to that....

white belt
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Re: Investments Trade Log

Post by white belt »

This URNM trade is the gift that keeps on giving. News came out last week that Sprott is acquiring URNM, which I think is bullish because they can put their full marketing machine behind the fund and draw more inflows. Today URNM is over $100 for the first time.

At this point I'm unsure how much to attribute this to prudent macro trading decisions vs just luck. I didn't anticipate Sprott trying to corner the physical uranium market when I started this trade a year ago, I was just banking on uranium demand increasing as countries come around to the fact that a green energy future requires nuclear power.

I'm breaking a basic rule of trading by not having my exit strategy laid out before starting the trade. At this point I think this trade still has legs because we're headed into a winter with high petroleum prices, which I suspect will make nuclear look even more appealing (regardless of physical uranium squeeze dynamics).

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Lemur
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Re: Investments Trade Log

Post by Lemur »

Sold another naked put on Visa at the $205 strike. I now have short puts at the $235, $220, and now $205...The only other naked puts in my portfolio are SOFI at $20. Otherwise, I'm inactive because I'm starting to feel a bit leveraged on this one potential falling knife...

My NOKIA investment is really going to pay back one day but I'm no Nostradamus. They're now in the cloud subscription business and they continue to grow market in 5G. Gross and net margins are increasing as well. They have some talk of doing share buybacks and institutional ownership is also starting to grow.

I have a large conviction on Nokia with a cost basis at $5.30. I'm no longer doing covered calls on this position as I don't want to miss potential huge upside. I think this is a huge value play...I've this investment in an IRA too :D .

Edit: I was assigned 100 share for Visa at $235. I had to sell my stake in General Mills to cover it. I still have short puts at $220, $205, and now $190. We will keep going as long as it takes - V will recover. Oversold with the rest of Fintech this week.

white belt
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Re: Investments Trade Log

Post by white belt »

Hit my stop-loss and sold 70 shares of URNM at $87.25. 3-bagger in 12 months.

white belt
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Re: Investments Trade Log

Post by white belt »

giskard wrote:
Fri Feb 12, 2021 2:33 pm
Anyway, that's my trade update bought MSOS at the top haha :lol:
Well that MSOS trade hasn't been very profitable if you've held it thus far, but I am considering getting some MSOS if it continues to correct down to the ~$25-26 range.

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Lemur
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Re: Investments Trade Log

Post by Lemur »

Looks interesting...
https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/KRBN?p= ... c=fin-srch
The investment seeks to provide a total return that, before fees and expenses, exceeds that of the IHS Markit Global Carbon Index (the ''index'') over a complete market cycle. The Advisor attempts to maintain exposure to carbon credit futures that are substantially the same as those included in the index and to exceed the performance of the index through direct or indirect investments in debt instruments. The index is designed to measure the performance of a portfolio of liquid carbon credit futures that require “physical delivery” of emission allowances issued under cap and trade regimes. It is non-diversified.
More information on carbon credit investing in general: https://sustainfi.com/articles/investin ... n-credits/

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Seppia
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Re: Investments Trade Log

Post by Seppia »

I have slowly built a large (by my standards) position in Visa.
Unless I am missing something obvious this seems like a good buying opportunity in one of the textbook “growth” businesses benefiting from a great secular shift away from cash.
Zero debt, highly profitable, oligopoly, with low capital requirements.
What am I missing?

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Lemur
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Re: Investments Trade Log

Post by Lemur »

@Seppia

Visa is my 2nd largest position and I've sold puts on the way down from $220, $205, $190, and $175. The $220 put I've been rolling unfortunately. I thought Visa was a good deal at $235 so to see the stock near $190 and at its 1 year low is a crazy good buying opportunity. I've been adding whenever I can. Visa is a cash machine and I expect the stock price to reach the $250-$300 range sometime next year. Visa also works as my inflation hedge because as consumer prices go up, Visa gets a percentage of that because their fees are tied to those prices.

So there is a bear case - other Fintech and innovative payment processing companies are going to start chipping away at market share unless Visa adapts (adjusts fees) which would tear into Revenue. Visa also gets a lot of its revenue from airports and travel and that is down right now. Lastly, Amazon may be determined in the long run to gets its own card and remove middle men altogether which would hurt Visa, Mastercard, and American Express. With that, Visa tends to rely on acquisitions to spur organic growth.

But earnings per share growth is pretty much guaranteed in the long-run as Visa has one of the most highest profit margins of any company on the stock exchange. And they can easily buy back shares.

Edit: Dropped my MU $95 Covered Calls for break-even. I've seen this story before and afraid capital is going to start pouring in and I might lose my shares. I don't want capped upside. The bullish sentiment is really starting to build here...

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Chris
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Re: Investments Trade Log

Post by Chris »

Lemur wrote:
Wed Dec 01, 2021 9:59 am
Lastly, Amazon may be determined in the long run to gets its own card and remove middle men altogether which would hurt Visa, Mastercard, and American Express.
Don't forget Apple and Google was well. Sure, ApplePay may rely on other payment methods (cards) now, but ApplePay is abstracting away the traditional payment methods. Eventually they may be in a position to dictate terms to Visa/MC, which will comply to avoid Apple seeking alternatives (such as building their own system).

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giskard
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Re: Investments Trade Log

Post by giskard »

white belt wrote:
Mon Nov 22, 2021 7:40 pm
Well that MSOS trade hasn't been very profitable if you've held it thus far, but I am considering getting some MSOS if it continues to correct down to the ~$25-26 range.
MSOS is killing me but all of those companies are trading at like 3x revenue while the rest of the market trades at like 10 or 20. So I'm still holding and adding where I can.

Otherwise the most recent things I've bought are LUNA and FTM - they are other EVM compatible layer 1 chains. Up 50% and 125% respectively on them. The Ethereum mainnet gas fees continue to cause interest in higher capacity alternatives to explode. Of course the big trade was also Solana but I'm not adding to it right here even though it's prob by far the best layer 1 Ethereum alternative (but it's also not EVM compatible). Solana is already the 5th biggest coin by market cap not sure that it has that much further to run this year.

white belt
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Re: Investments Trade Log

Post by white belt »

giskard wrote:
Wed Dec 01, 2021 1:16 pm
MSOS is killing me but all of those companies are trading at like 3x revenue while the rest of the market trades at like 10 or 20. So I'm still holding and adding where I can.
Hit my limit order and bought 170 shares of MSOS at $25.70.

MSOS has been getting crushed and the technicals are still bearish, so I wouldn't be surprised if it dips further.* Today's close was the lowest for MSOS since October 2020. I legged into the trade with 50%, so I'd be happy to buy more and lower my cost basis if things trend downward.

Todd Harrison makes the bull case in an interview with Jesse Felder that I listened to a few weeks ago (disclaimer: Harrison advises for MSOS, so of course he is making a bull case, but nevertheless he gives a nice overview of the industry): https://thefelderreport.com/2021/11/04/ ... -lifetime/

The cannabis decriminalization trend is going to roll along, the question is if it's still too early. I'm shooting for a 2-3 bagger in ~12 months, but may exit earlier or later depending on conditions.

* = Kevin Muir makes the argument that a lot of the recent pullback on cannabis ETFs is due to tax loss harvesting as we move towards the end of the year.
Last edited by white belt on Wed Dec 01, 2021 6:50 pm, edited 1 time in total.

white belt
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Re: Investments Trade Log

Post by white belt »

Hit my limit order and bought 277 shares of SRUUF at $10.83.

Technicals have been pretty neutral over the past few months. I legged in so I will attempt to lower cost basis if possible in the near future.

I still like the bull case on uranium and Kuppy's squeeze thesis.

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giskard
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Re: Investments Trade Log

Post by giskard »

white belt wrote:
Wed Dec 01, 2021 5:39 pm
Todd Harrison makes the bull case in an interview with Jesse Felder that I listened to a few weeks ago (disclaimer: Harrison advises for MSOS, so of course he is making a bull case, but nevertheless he gives a nice overview of the industry): https://thefelderreport.com/2021/11/04/ ... -lifetime/
Yessss yesssss inject that bull case directly into my veins :lol:

Married2aSwabian
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Re: Investments Trade Log

Post by Married2aSwabian »

Buckle up, boys, it’s gonna be a bumpy flight for a while. Stocks are loooong overdue for a correction, with P/Es in the stratosphere.

Anyone else around here involved in the manufacturing sector? It’s been shrinking significantly in the US for decades:

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Manufactu ... ted_States

I’ve struggled for 25 years to to understand the concept of an economy that is 70% based on consumer spending. That is the definition of a ponzi scheme….at least in the long term.

white belt
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Re: Investments Trade Log

Post by white belt »

Married2aSwabian wrote:
Thu Dec 02, 2021 8:23 am
Buckle up, boys, it’s gonna be a bumpy flight for a while. Stocks are loooong overdue for a correction, with P/Es in the stratosphere.
Meh, I haven't really seen anything that indicates the party is ending. The larger macro factors are unchanged. We have been "overdue" for a correction for the past 5+ years (see Hussman thread). P/E as a valuation tool doesn't work when real rates are negative. Since QE, the entire market and has been conditioned to buy on the dip every time there is a slight pullback and it looks like this is no different. Volatility is definitely here to stay though.

Married2aSwabian wrote:
Thu Dec 02, 2021 8:23 am
Anyone else around here involved in the manufacturing sector? It’s been shrinking significantly in the US for decades:

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Manufactu ... ted_States

I’ve struggled for 25 years to to understand the concept of an economy that is 70% based on consumer spending. That is the definition of a ponzi scheme….at least in the long term.
Yes, one of the benefits of being the global reserve currency and globalization. Unless you were lower/middle class in the USA and lost your job in manufacturing (see rise of populism over past decade). But if you were in the upper class in the USA or lower class in a developing country, you've benefited immensely. With COVID19 exposing the frailties of a global supply chain, I'd expect domestic manufacturing start to make a comeback (but building factories takes time).

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Lemur
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Re: Investments Trade Log

Post by Lemur »

I sold and took profits on some tech and bank this mornings just so that my naked put positions (SOFI / Visa) are cash secured. Should the market tank, I don't want to be left holding both losses and margin loans. Ugh..its ugly. I was over-weighted in Financial & Fintech but that was my mistake. Semiconductors are taking a hit too. I also freed up some cash to cover my tax liability for the year.

Actually I think everything just about is down today. I'm not surprised about Square though. Its PE was over 300 at some point lol.

Today would be a great day to go into selling puts as VIX is high and premiums are up. I used to do this with no fear....but there is something that feels different and now I'm very hesitant and I'm not going to do it. Ever since I got bit but Moderna a few months ago, I haven't been the same options trader anyway.

My large positions in WMT, Visa, MU. My new strategy ought to be delete Yahoo Finance app and check back in 5 years.

Married2aSwabian
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Re: Investments Trade Log

Post by Married2aSwabian »

white belt wrote:
Thu Dec 02, 2021 5:29 pm
Meh, I haven't really seen anything that indicates the party is ending. The larger macro factors are unchanged. We have been "overdue" for a correction for the past 5+ years (see Hussman thread). P/E as a valuation tool doesn't work when real rates are negative. Since QE, the entire market and has been conditioned to buy on the dip every time there is a slight pullback and it looks like this is no different. Volatility is definitely here to stay though.
Well, parties don’t last forever, even if recency bias makes us believe they do. When your country has a debt to GDP ratio of 128, that’s a pretty strong indication that the $ printing has gotten a bit out of hand.

https://tradingeconomics.com/country-li ... ebt-to-gdp

Looks like another thread just started here recently re Charlie Munger’s outlook:

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles ... otcom-bust

Don’t get me wrong, as central to my teenage years as video games and weed were, the euphoria surrounding these associated stonks may be coming to an end.

SavingWithBabies
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Re: Investments Trade Log

Post by SavingWithBabies »

I boggled a bit at ratio but then realized that list is in percentages so it's 128% of GDP. Not saying that's low of course.

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