Will Gas Stations Exist In 15 Years?

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7Wannabe5
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Re: Will Gas Stations Exist In 15 Years?

Post by 7Wannabe5 »

Will libraries exist in 15 years? Will grocery stores exist in 15 years? Will courthouses and prisons exist in 15 years? Will human sexual intercourse exist in 15 years?

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Bankai
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Re: Will Gas Stations Exist In 15 Years?

Post by Bankai »

Yes to all above - I don't see demand going away anytime soon.* Unlike gas stations where with increasing percentage of car owners charging at home, they'll be less and less profitable.

*Maybe online groceries will decimate physical stores, who knows? Jury's out on this one as there's strong preference in many humans for face 2 face interactions as well as picking their food themselves.

7Wannabe5
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Re: Will Gas Stations Exist In 15 Years?

Post by 7Wannabe5 »

The depth of collections held by libraries has changed dramatically in just the last 25 years. It could be argued that the publishing industry has changed more in the last 40 years than in the previous 200 years. The narrative structure known as the novel might not even last this millennium.

Even now, a noticeable percentage of shoppers in grocery stores are delivery services. If/when the automotive fleet is electric and AI driven, adding shopping robots to the equation will be easy.

Electronic tethering systems are much less expensive than prison stays. Humans are already acclimated to virtual courts through popularity of courtroom drama and reality shows.

Testosterone levels are on decline. Virtual encounters are safe and easy.

ZAFCorrection
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Re: Will Gas Stations Exist In 15 Years?

Post by ZAFCorrection »

@DD

Didnt read the whole thing but the the paper hedges a lot in the last paragraph of the abstract. I think figure 3 also makes the point. Will these cobalt deposits profitably produce (or at least break even if the government wants to assume the risk) cobalt at prices that the EV industry can afford? What are the regulatory limitations? Given that it is Europe, I'm guessing a lot. What's the turn-on time for new supply if a new project is started? The semiconductor shortage has been a good example of how commodities don't appear on demand even when there are dollar bills in play.

ETA:

If I had to guess something will happen in 15 years, it will be that there will be a lot of fracking-style capital destruction as people chase after ESG-friendly mines/minerals that ultimately prove to be unprofitable.

ETA2:

The fracking boondoggle in the US should be a good example of why people should be skeptical of the "life finds a way!" mentality for technology. Usage of fossil fuels as a driver of the economy and profitability has been proven for centuries now. People were super stoked on fracking, including two of the three administrations that existed when it was a big deal (including up to Trump). The financial world was giving the frackers a blank check for exploration and drilling. Neither carbon nor other externalities were getting priced into their cost of doing business. And with all these advantages still the frackers couldn't make it happen financially. Just because the technology didn't and doesn't exist to make it profitable on a large scale.

Thus, I am skeptical of people's lack of skepticism of electrification + alternative energies, because that is a lot more complex than getting oil-ish stuff out of the ground and refining it.
Last edited by ZAFCorrection on Mon Aug 09, 2021 12:05 pm, edited 1 time in total.

Qazwer
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Re: Will Gas Stations Exist In 15 Years?

Post by Qazwer »

There is a difference between what makes us fundamentally human and technologies, logistics systems that only became dominant in the 20th century. Libraries are shifting to community and knowledge sharing from in person to reading apps. Grocery stores have definite issues of fixed costs. Sex has been around a lot longer and will probably last longer.
Combustion vehicles defining human existence is only the past century. Who knows how much longer that will last?

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Bankai
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Re: Will Gas Stations Exist In 15 Years?

Post by Bankai »

7Wannabe5 wrote:
Mon Aug 09, 2021 8:07 am
The depth of collections held by libraries has changed dramatically in just the last 25 years. It could be argued that the publishing industry has changed more in the last 40 years than in the previous 200 years. The narrative structure known as the novel might not even last this millennium.
Libraries have been around for thousands of years and I don't see them dissapearing anytime soon. Changing - yes, but not disappearing. My local library in one of the less desirable neighbourhoods was buzzing with life before the pandemics and I see no reason for this to change. It's probably more akin to a local meeting hall than an institution preserving knowledge - for that we have the internet. But yeah, it's mainly fiction of the more mainstreem kind. I usually don't find what I'm looking for there.
7Wannabe5 wrote:
Mon Aug 09, 2021 8:07 am
Even now, a noticeable percentage of shoppers in grocery stores are delivery services. If/when the automotive fleet is electric and AI driven, adding shopping robots to the equation will be easy.
We started ordering delivery for our weekly shopping when the pandemics started and can't imagine going back, it's just so convenient. Having said that, old habits die hard and vast majority of people still prefers to buy food in person. I wonder if this is becasuse going to the store and picking foods with your own hands satisfies the same deep need to obtain/provide food as gathering/hunting? Whereas simply opening the door and collecting bags reminds of reliance on other people, which is never satisfying/safe?
7Wannabe5 wrote:
Mon Aug 09, 2021 8:07 am
Electronic tethering systems are much less expensive than prison stays. Humans are already acclimated to virtual courts through popularity of courtroom drama and reality shows.
I'm with you on prisons - if I was organising the society, there'd be no prisons. What a waste of resources... As to courts, the easy stuff can be done online for sure - unpaid speeding tickets and the like. Sort of what the likes of Telacod are doing with GP visits. But can you imagine a month's long murder trial online?
7Wannabe5 wrote:
Mon Aug 09, 2021 8:07 am
Testosterone levels are on decline. Virtual encounters are safe and easy.
My working assumption based on rising popularity and quality of sex robots and various movements like incels etc. is that within a couple of decades we'll have a two-tier society with respect to sex. There'll be a majority still prefering 'the real thing' and a non-insignificant minority with robo-partners. Kind of an evolutionary dead end, but also helpful to keep the numbers down, so as long as everyone's happy, what's not to like?

7Wannabe5
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Re: Will Gas Stations Exist In 15 Years?

Post by 7Wannabe5 »

@Bankai:

I don’t disagree. There are all sorts of trends we can spot and surmise about. Maybe the more important question is what are the trends we aren’t spotting?

Returning to original topic. I think this is a good example of how big capital often violates the simple notion that we are voting every day at the margin with our consumer dollars. For instance, it’s very clear that GM made executive decision that the future will be electric. Roughly analogous to how fashion is often dictated from above. Zero percent of 19th century futurists predicted women wearing yoga pants.

chenda
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Re: Will Gas Stations Exist In 15 Years?

Post by chenda »

7Wannabe5 wrote:
Thu Aug 12, 2021 6:40 am
I think this is a good example of how big capital often violates the simple notion that we are voting every day at the margin with our consumer dollars.
It's somewhat ironic how cars are marketed as symbols of freedom and individuality, but mass car use only exists because of massive amounts of central planning and subsidy.

Does the US still have chain gangs ? I'm sure a modern version could be developed whereby prisoners are put to work doing useful unpleasant jobs, like cleaning up contaminated land.

white belt
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Re: Will Gas Stations Exist In 15 Years?

Post by white belt »

chenda wrote:
Thu Aug 12, 2021 8:40 am
Does the US still have chain gangs ? I'm sure a modern version could be developed whereby prisoners are put to work doing useful unpleasant jobs, like cleaning up contaminated land.
Yes, but they are no longer called chain gangs. It’s common to see prison crews cleaning up litter and cutting grass on the side of highways. Some prisoners even have regular jobs, for example I knew of a guy who worked at Best Buy while still incarcerated, although as you can imagine these jobs are reserved for the most well-behaved inmates.

Back on topic, I stand by my view that gas stations will exist for many years due to the physical realities I highlighted in my earlier post and the social/cultural realities that Jacob highlighted.

I’m also not sure that maintenance costs will be less for an electric car. We know that the batteries are expensive and need to be replaced every few years. We also know that the electric vehicles so far are much harder or impossible for an individual to DIY repair due to proprietary systems that are essentially a black box.

I’m reminded of the scene in “I, Robot” where Will Smith’s character still has a gasoline motorcycle in a world of autonomous electric cars.

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Bankai
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Re: Will Gas Stations Exist In 15 Years?

Post by Bankai »

The most up to date stats show how rapid the progress is currently with many countries increasing the proportion of EVs in new car registrations by 100%-200% or more over last year:

Image

zbigi
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Re: Will Gas Stations Exist In 15 Years?

Post by zbigi »

Bankai wrote:
Mon Sep 06, 2021 6:29 am
The most up to date stats show how rapid the progress is currently with many countries increasing the proportion of EVs in new car registrations by 100%-200% or more over last year:

Image
The chart says "plug-in", which could mean it includes plug-in hybrids, which are still ICE cars.

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unemployable
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Re: Will Gas Stations Exist In 15 Years?

Post by unemployable »

zbigi wrote:
Mon Sep 06, 2021 3:47 pm
The chart says "plug-in", which could mean it includes plug-in hybrids, which are still ICE cars.
In fact these numbers DO include hybrids.

https://insideevs.com/news/517969/norwa ... -june2021/

2021 figures for Norway through June have pure electrics at 57.3% market share and hybrids at 25.4%. There's your 82% market share. Still, pure electric sales were more than double those of hybrids.

https://cleantechnica.com/2021/08/04/sw ... x-changes/
https://cleantechnica.com/2021/07/02/sw ... 4-in-june/

Sweden has slightly MORE hybrid sales than pure electric sales.

How 'bout an actual big country that makes lots of cars, like Germany?

https://insideevs.com/news/520508/germa ... june-2021/

For the first half of 2021, hybrids accounted for 11.9% of all sales versus 10% for pure electrics.

Kriegsspiel
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Re: Will Gas Stations Exist In 15 Years?

Post by Kriegsspiel »

white belt wrote:
Thu Aug 12, 2021 9:19 am
I’m also not sure that maintenance costs will be less for an electric car. We know that the batteries are expensive and need to be replaced every few years. We also know that the electric vehicles so far are much harder or impossible for an individual to DIY repair due to proprietary systems that are essentially a black box.
An article I read recently made the claim that maintenance costs aren't much, if at all, lower for electric cars because the brakes need to be (expensively) serviced since regenerative braking is used so often. I haven't read much more into it, but that would be a major turn-off for me. I got very interested in electric cars over the past few months, but it doesn't seem like there's a no-frills, simple electric car with acceptable range.

jennypenny's comment about reverting back to lower technologies was thought-provoking. Diesels seem like a prudent choice, but apparently even they require sophisticated electronics to run as well as the newer diesels do. The old million mile Mercedes, without the electronics, aren't as good on fuel. But to her point, we know they are manufacturable for many decades on the backside of the curve.

ducknald_don
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Re: Will Gas Stations Exist In 15 Years?

Post by ducknald_don »

Kriegsspiel wrote:
Mon Sep 06, 2021 8:10 pm
An article I read recently made the claim that maintenance costs aren't much, if at all, lower for electric cars because the brakes need to be (expensively) serviced since regenerative braking is used so often.
That doesn't make sense at all, if you are using more regenerative braking then you are using less frictional braking. The pads and disks should last longer.

Then you have all the ICE related stuff, spark plugs, fuel injectors, oil filters, air filters, oil changes. None of that is a required in an EV.

The main thing you have to worry about is battery degradation.

Kriegsspiel
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Re: Will Gas Stations Exist In 15 Years?

Post by Kriegsspiel »

IIRC, the issue with the brakes was that if you don't use them, they have to be serviced because they rust up/seize up. I'll try to find the article again.

M
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Re: Will Gas Stations Exist In 15 Years?

Post by M »

Well, these are some interesting responses. I guess I should have phrased this "Will gasoline still be cheap and readily available in 15 years?" and not gas stations per se. Of course the land will be there, with a building, and likely some sort of energy dispensing ability whether that be electric or hydrogen or gas or diesal or kerosene or all of the above.

The lead time on a new Tesla model y is currently March of 2022, 6 months from now. Many other electric vehicles are sold out of initial inventory. It seems like there is a surprising level of demand there for evs in general for some reason. The next couple of years should be interesting.


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